<![CDATA[This study analyzes the dynamics of defense budget efficiency in Indonesia, highlighting the tension between the need to modernize the Defense Main Equipment System (Alutsista) and fiscal constraints amid the multidimensional economic crisis triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. Using a qualitative approach and literature review, the guns-versus-butter paradox is examined, in which the state must balance defense investment aimed at achieving the Minimum Essential Force (MEF) and progressing toward the Optimum Essential Force (OEF) against the urgent need for social safety nets. The findings reveal a duality in public perception: assessments of national security remained positive, while criticism emerged toward aggressive debt-financing schemes (front-loading) that could intensify fiscal risks and distributive concerns. A comparative case study of the cancelled Mirage 2000-5 acquisition due to fiscal constraints and the staged procurement of Dassault Rafale aircraft, supported by foreign credit facilities and industrial-offset arrangements, shows that large-scale modernization can be structured to distribute fiscal obligations across budget years while generating domestic industrial benefits. The results imply the need for disciplined top-down planning, affordability and life-cycle cost assessment, transparent financing, and measurable technology-transfer and offset outcomes to strengthen national defense self-reliance.]]>
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