Integrated Probability-Impact and Regression Framework for Negative Cash Flow Risk in High-Rise Construction Projects: Kerangka Kerja Terintegrasi Probabilitas-Dampak dan Regresi untuk Risiko Arus Kas Negatif pada Proyek Konstruksi Bangunan Tinggi

Ridho Syahputra (Master’s Program in Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Mercu Buana, Jakarta, Indonesia)
Yunita Dian Suwandari (Master’s Program in Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Mercu Buana, Jakarta, Indonesia)

Indonesian Journal of Innovation Studies
Vol. 27 No. 4 (2026): October

Negative cash flow represents a critical financial challenge that threatens liquidity and execution timelines across the construction sector. General Background Negative cash flow represents a critical financial challenge that threatens liquidity and execution timelines across the construction sector. Specific Background High-rise developments such as the X Apartment Project frequently experience severe liquidity imbalances due to delayed owner payments, estimation discrepancies, and productivity bottlenecks. Knowledge Gap Prior studies have largely evaluated cash flow anomalies from isolated financial perspectives without integrating risk matrices and regression models to assess operational impacts in high-rise settings. Aims This study aims to identify negative cash-flow risk factors, evaluate their severity, analyze their statistical effects on project operations, and formulate validated mitigation strategies. Results The analysis revealed that delayed payments, weak financial management, and low labor productivity are the most critical determinants directly impairing operational continuity and schedule performance. Novelty The integration of a Probability-Impact Matrix with multiple linear regression provides an empirical framework that bridges financial risk assessment with operational performance metrics. Implications Contractors can utilize these structured mitigation techniques to optimize liquidity management and safeguard the operational execution of high-rise construction projects. Highlights Statistical evaluations confirm that payment delays, weak financial control, and low productivity significantly impair project operations. The integration of probability-impact assessments with regression analysis effectively bridges financial risk identification and operational management. Prioritized mitigation strategies emphasize proactive payment tracking and liquidity buffers rather than complete risk avoidance. Keywords Negative Cash Flow; Risk Management; Construction Project; Probability-Impact Matrix; Risk Mitigation