<![CDATA[Archipelagic regions such as Raja Ampat face significant challenges in balancing tourism growth with environmental protection. This study aims to analyze the dynamics of population growth and tourist arrivals and their implications for infrastructure provision in Waisai, Raja Ampat—particularly in the areas of clean water supply, wastewater and solid waste management. Using a quantitative-descriptive approach, projections were made through 2041 based on secondary data from relevant agencies and primary data from field observations. The findings indicate that Waisai’s population is projected to increase from 26,067 people in 2022 to 60,551 by 2041. The daily tourist population is also expected to rise significantly, reaching 6,142 individuals by 2041, nearing the physical carrying capacity threshold of 7,675 persons per day. The demand for clean water is projected to reach 85.4 liters per second, exceeding the current SPAM (drinking water system) capacity and necessitating phased expansion. Wastewater needs—including 49 liters per second for greywater and 33 cubic meters per day for blackwater—remain within the capacity of the existing sludge treatment plant (IPLT), highlighting the importance of optimizing its operation. Solid waste generation is expected to increase from 23.6 tons per day in 2022 to 46 tons per day by 2041, requiring additional transport fleets and expansion of TPS 3R (reduce, reuse, recycle) facilities. The study concludes that both tourism and population growth must be accompanied by the development of sustainable infrastructure. Adaptive, projection-based planning is crucial to maintaining environmental carrying capacity and supporting sustainable tourism development in vulnerable island regions like Raja Ampat.]]>
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