<![CDATA[This study examines both the long-run relationship and short-run dynamics between urban poverty and hinterland rice supply. The unit of analysis comprises Bandar Lampung City and five rice-producing districts (Central Lampung, East Lampung, South Lampung, Mesuji, and Tulang Bawang) which together form an integrated urban–rural economic system. Quarterly time-series data for the period 2010Q1–2024Q4 (approximately 60 observations) are employed to enhance statistical power. Variables originally available at lower frequencies are temporally disaggregated into quarterly series using linear interpolation, and data consistency is verified through aggregation tests and robustness checks. An Error Correction Model (ECM) is applied to capture equilibrium relationships and short-term adjustments. The long-run results indicate that real GRDP per capita significantly reduces poverty, whereas unemployment and the rice production index are not statistically significant. The Engle–Granger test confirms cointegration among the variables. In the short run, the error correction term is negative and significant, suggesting gradual adjustment toward long-run equilibrium. Overall, income growth emerges as the primary driver of poverty reduction, while the effect of rice supply operates indirectly and more slowly through market transmission mechanisms.]]>
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