International Journal of Power Electronics and Drive Systems (IJPEDS)
Vol 17, No 3: September 2026

Design of an integrated forecasting and scheduling model for power plants to balance solar and wind energy variability using real-time weather data

Syafii Syafii (Universitas Andalas)
Novizon Novizon (Universitas Andalas)
Imra Nur Izrillah (Universitas Andalas)



Article Info

Publish Date
01 Sep 2026

Abstract

The integration of variable renewable energy sources such as solar and wind creates challenges for power system stability and operational scheduling due to their intermittent characteristics. This study proposes an integrated forecasting and scheduling framework using real-time weather data for a hybrid renewable power system consisting of photovoltaic, wind, geothermal, and hydropower plants. Solar irradiance and wind speed data were collected using pyranometer and anemometer sensors and modeled using ARIMA for 24-hour-ahead forecasting. Based on AIC and BIC evaluation, ARIMA (2, 1, 2) and ARIMA (1, 1, 1) were selected for solar irradiance and wind speed forecasting, respectively. The forecasting results achieved MAPE values of 18.43% for solar irradiance and 14.12% for wind speed. The forecasted renewable outputs were integrated into a generation scheduling model, where geothermal power operated as a base-load unit and hydropower acted as a balancing source. The proposed scheduling strategy was evaluated through a 24-hour Newton-Raphson load flow simulation. Results showed that system power losses remained below 2% and bus voltage levels were maintained within acceptable limits, demonstrating reliable operation under fluctuating weather conditions.

Copyrights © 2026






Journal Info

Abbrev

IJPEDS

Publisher

Subject

Control & Systems Engineering Electrical & Electronics Engineering

Description

International Journal of Power Electronics and Drive Systems (IJPEDS, ISSN: 2088-8694, a SCOPUS indexed Journal) is the official publication of the Institute of Advanced Engineering and Science (IAES). The scope of the journal includes all issues in the field of Power Electronics and drive systems. ...