<![CDATA[Shandong provides a concrete case for examining whether higher vocational education (HVE) can keep pace with industrial upgrading. Since the new and old kinetic energy conversion (NOKEC) strategy began in 2018, provincial policy has prioritized high-tech manufacturing and the “ten strong industries,” while HVE program structures have adjusted more slowly. This study evaluates the coordination between industrial upgrading and HVE program structure across 16 prefecture-level cities from 2016 to 2023. A dual-system indicator framework was built from official statistical yearbooks, education quality reports, and provincial bulletins. After min-max standardization, the entropy weight method (EWM), coupling coordination degree (CCD) model, and obstacle degree model were used to measure temporal evolution, spatial variation, and main constraints. The results show that coordination improved from marginal to good, but the HVE subsystem remained below the industrial subsystem throughout the period. Qingdao, Jinan, and Yantai reached high-quality coordination, while Heze remained relatively constrained. Graduate employment in strategic industries was the leading obstacle factor. The findings suggest that curriculum renewal, teacher development, enterprise co-designed modules, and graduate tracking should be strengthened to improve HVE responsiveness to regional industrial change.]]>
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