Curriculum Reform or Structural Equity? A Multilevel Analysis of Indonesia’s PISA Performance Across Eight Cycles, 2000-2022

Nur Azizah Nasution (Institut Teknologi Bandung)
Valid Hasyimi (Institut Teknologi Bandung)

Educational Journal of Learning Technology
Vol. 4 No. 1 (2026): Educational Journal of Learning Technology (Juni-September 2026)

This study examines whether curriculum era shifts correlate with Indonesia's PISA score fluctuations. Using multilevel regression on eight PISA cycles (2000–2022) with controls for population coverage and test modes, complemented by semi-structured interviews with six policy informants, curriculum changes showed no significant relationship with scores. Conversely, structural factors like socioeconomic status, urban-rural location, and grade repetition consistently predicted performance. Findings indicate student achievement depends on structural conditions rather than curriculum overhauls. Policy resources should therefore target educational equity, teacher feedback, and socioeconomic support rather than frequent curriculum changes.