Mathematical conceptual understanding remains one of the challenges in mathematics education, as students often experience difficulties in understanding and appropriately applying mathematical concepts. Therefore, this present study aimed to determine the effect of the Discovery Learning model on students’ mathematical conceptual understanding in probability material. This study employed a quantitative approach using a One-Shot Case Study design. The population consisted of all tenth-grade students at SMA Persatuan Tulangan, with a sample of 34 students selected through simple random sampling. The data were acquired through classroom implementation observation sheets and a mathematical conceptual understanding test, and then analyzed using descriptive statistics and simple linear regression. The findings indicated that the implementation of the Discovery Learning model was categorized as very good. The regression analysis of (<0,001) < (0,05), indicating a positive and significant effect of the Discovery Learning model on students mathematical conceptual understanding. Therefore, Discovery Learning can be used as an alternative learning model for probability.
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