<![CDATA[Taman Wisata Alam (TWA) Sungai Dumai is a 4,712.50 ha nature tourism park in Dumai City, Riau Province, that faces encroachment and recurrent fire pressure while only about 2% of its area is actively used for tourism. This study assessed the ecological, social, and economic condition of TWA Sungai Dumai, calculated its environmental carrying capacity for ecotourism, and formulated a management strategy through SWOT analysis. A descriptive mixed-methods approach was applied from August 2025 to July 2026, combining vegetation plot sampling (9 plots across three clusters) with a stratified random sample of 150 respondents from five kelurahan surrounding the park. Carrying capacity was calculated using the Cifuentes (1992) PCC-RCC-ECC framework, while internal and external factors were evaluated through IFAS-EFAS matrices. Results show tree-level Shannon diversity index ranging from 0.673 to 2.594, indicating moderate-to-high biodiversity that declines toward encroached zones. Physical, real, and effective carrying capacities were 1,072, 111, and 22 visitors/day respectively, while actual general-tourism visitation of only 0.4 visitors/day (about 4.5% of ECC) revealed extreme underutilization rather than overtourism. IFAS and EFAS scores of 2.293 and 2.689 positioned the park in Quadrant I (SO/aggressive strategy), from which fifteen strategies were formulated and prioritized into twelve programs across three implementation phases (2026-2030), beginning with institutional coordination, integrated management planning, tenurial conflict resolution, and community group empowerment. These findings provide an empirically grounded basis for strengthening the existing 2020-2029 long-term management plan of TWA Sungai Dumai toward sustainable, community-based ecotourism.]]>
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