Jurnal Meteorologi dan Geofisika
Vol. 27 No. 1 (2026)

Development of Regional Empirical Models Using Initial P-Wave Parameters (Pd and Td) to Support Earthquake Early Warning Systems in the Padang Region, West Sumatra

Nida Nur Faiza (Unknown)
Wandono Wandono (Unknown)
Muzli Muzli (Badan Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika (BMKG))



Article Info

Publish Date
05 Oct 2026

Abstract

Padang, West Sumatra, has high seismic activity due to the subduction zone beneath western Sumatra. This tectonic activity has the potential to cause major earthquakes with significant impacts, as seen in the 2009 Padang Earthquake. To minimize this risk, earthquake early warning systems (EEWS) have been developed to provide alerts before the arrival of destructive seismic waves. However, empirical relationships used in EEWS are influenced by regional tectonic and geological characteristics, making region-specific models essential for reliable rapid earthquake parameter estimation. This study develops regional empirical relationships to support rapid earthquake parameter estimation for EEWS in the West Sumatra region by analysing the first three seconds of the P-wave signal, namely peak displacement (Pd) and predominant period (Td), using broadband seismogram and accelerogram data to investigate their relationships with earthquake parameters, including moment magnitude (Mw), Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA), Peak Ground Velocity (PGV), Peak Ground Displacement (PGD), and earthquake intensity. Earthquake events were selected from the BMKG earthquake catalogue for the period 2011–2024 in the West Sumatra region. Broadband seismogram and accelerogram recordings from these events were collected from seven BMKG seismic stations (PBSI, PDSI, PPI, PPSI, SISI, TDNI, and TRIYO). The final dataset comprised 76 earthquakes with moment magnitudes greater than 5.0, each recorded by at least four of the seven BMKG stations. The research used the differentiation and integration of P-wave signals, and a Butterworth filter (0.075-4 Hz) was applied to remove noise and enhance signal quality. The analysis results indicate that displacement amplitude is correlated with PGA, PGV, and PGD, with correlation coefficients ranging from 0.6 to 0.9. The predominant period is correlated with moment magnitude, with correlation coefficients ranging from 0.6 to 0.7. Magnitude estimation based on displacement amplitude yielded a correlation coefficient of 0.7375, whereas estimation based on the predominant period yielded a correlation coefficient of 0.6791. Intensity estimation based on displacement amplitude and predominant period showed correlation coefficients ranging from 0.7 to 0.8. The results of this study are expected to provide supporting data for the development of an Earthquake Early Warning System in the Padang area and its surroundings, to minimize earthquake-related damage and provide optimal evacuation time for the community.

Copyrights © 2026






Journal Info

Abbrev

jmg

Publisher

Subject

Earth & Planetary Sciences Energy Physics

Description

Jurnal Meteorologi dan Geofisika (JMG) is a scientific research journal published by the Research and Development Center of the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) as a means to publish research and development achievements in Meteorology, Climatology, Air Quality and ...