Jurnal Ragam Pengabdian
Vol. 3 No. 3 (2026): September-Desember Integrating Multidisciplinary Knowledge for Sustainable Comm

The Short-Term and Long-Term Effects of Special Autonomy Funds, Inflation, Interest Rates, and Economic Growth on the Human Development Index in Aceh: The ARDL Approach

Mutiara Shifa (Universitas Teuku Umar)
Cindi Permata Sari (Universitas Teuku Umar)
Sailal Arimi (Universitas Teuku Umar)
Saiful Badli (Universitas Teuku Umar)
Sri Rosmiati Sani (Universitas Teuku Umar)



Article Info

Publish Date
13 Oct 2026

Abstract

This study analyzes the short-term and long-term relationships between the Special Autonomy Fund, inflation, interest rates, and economic growth with the Human Development Index in Aceh Province. The study uses annual data from 2008–2025 and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach as estimated in EViews software. The selected model is ARDL (1,0,0,0,1). The estimation results show that in the short-term dynamics, changes in economic growth have a negative and significant effect on changes in the HDI with a coefficient of −0.300573. The variables of inflation, interest rates, and the log of the Special Autonomy Fund are not significant in the short-term specification. The long-term relationship coefficients derived from the model are positive for inflation and interest rates, and negative for the log of the Special Autonomy Fund and economic growth, but all are statistically insignificant. The error correction coefficient of 0.003355 is significant, but has a positive sign and does not indicate a convergence mechanism towards long-term equilibrium as is common in ECM models. These findings indicate that empirical evidence from short annual samples is more powerful for interpreting short-term dynamics than inferring long-term relationships.

Copyrights © 2026






Journal Info

Abbrev

juragan

Publisher

Subject

Environmental Science Social Sciences Other

Description

Berisi hasil-hasil kegiatan pengabdian dan pemberdayaan masyarakat berupa penerapan berbagai bidang ilmu diantaranya pendidikan, ekonomi, agama, teknik, pertanian, sosial humaniora, komputer dan kesehatan yang ditulis dalam bahasa Indonesia maupun bahasa ...