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All Journal Jurnal Ragam Pengabdian
Cindi Permata Sari
Universitas Teuku Umar
Environmental Science Social Sciences Other

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The Short-Term and Long-Term Effects of Special Autonomy Funds, Inflation, Interest Rates, and Economic Growth on the Human Development Index in Aceh: The ARDL Approach Mutiara Shifa; Cindi Permata Sari; Sailal Arimi; Saiful Badli; Sri Rosmiati Sani
Jurnal Ragam Pengabdian Vol. 3 No. 3 (2026): September-Desember Integrating Multidisciplinary Knowledge for Sustainable Comm
Publisher : Lembaga Teewan Journal Solutions

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.62710/teg21f13

Abstract

This study analyzes the short-term and long-term relationships between the Special Autonomy Fund, inflation, interest rates, and economic growth with the Human Development Index in Aceh Province. The study uses annual data from 2008–2025 and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach as estimated in EViews software. The selected model is ARDL (1,0,0,0,1). The estimation results show that in the short-term dynamics, changes in economic growth have a negative and significant effect on changes in the HDI with a coefficient of −0.300573. The variables of inflation, interest rates, and the log of the Special Autonomy Fund are not significant in the short-term specification. The long-term relationship coefficients derived from the model are positive for inflation and interest rates, and negative for the log of the Special Autonomy Fund and economic growth, but all are statistically insignificant. The error correction coefficient of 0.003355 is significant, but has a positive sign and does not indicate a convergence mechanism towards long-term equilibrium as is common in ECM models. These findings indicate that empirical evidence from short annual samples is more powerful for interpreting short-term dynamics than inferring long-term relationships.
Co-Authors Mutiara Shifa Saiful Badli Sailal Arimi Sri Rosmiati Sani