<![CDATA[This study aims to analyze the development of Indonesia’s ferronickel and nickel ore export values and to test the difference in mean ferronickel export value before and after the nickel ore export ban, which took full effect on 1 January 2020. The downstreaming policy was expected to shift exports from raw materials to processed products with higher added value. The study uses a quantitative approach with a before–after design. Secondary data on ferronickel (HS 72026000) and nickel ore (HS 26040000) export values for 2014–2024 were obtained from Statistics Indonesia, comprising six years before and five years after the policy. The analysis used IBM SPSS Statistics, applying descriptive statistics, normality tests, Levene’s test, an Independent Samples t-Test, and dummy-variable linear regression at the 5% significance level. The results show that ferronickel export value rose from 2018 and peaked in 2023, while nickel ore export value fell to nearly zero in 2020–2023. The mean ferronickel export value after the policy was about 9.3 times higher than before. Because group variances were not homogeneous, Welch’s test yielded a p-value of 0.058, so the difference was not significant at the 5% level, whereas the dummy regression indicated a mean difference of approximately USD 7.33 billion under an unmet equal-variance assumption. These findings indicate an increase in ferronickel exports consistent with the downstreaming objective, but not a direct policy effect, as other factors were not controlled. The government should diversify processed products and export destinations.]]>
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