Student learning outcomes are widely influenced by principal leadership. In Indonesia's decentralized and diversified education system, the mechanisms linking leadership practices to measurable outcomes remain poorly understood, and the existence of multiple leadership models makes synthesizing evidence more difficult. This study provides a thorough analysis of empirical research on the relationship between principal leadership and student performance in Indonesian schools conducted between 2015 and 2025. Using the PRISMA 2020 protocol, we identified 284 records from SCOPUS, Web of Science, ERIC, and Google Scholar; 30 met the inclusion criteria. We collected data on effect sizes, mediators, moderators, and methodological rigor, and assessed study quality using MMAT. The findings show that principal leadership positively affects student outcomes. Important mediators include student motivation, school culture, instructor effectiveness, and educational resources. Contextual factors such as location, resources, accreditation, and digital preparedness moderate these effects. The study suggests that leadership mostly influences outcomes indirectly, highlighting school culture and teacher capacity as key mechanisms and calling for more thorough and varied future research.
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