Analysis of Indonesia's Palm Oil (CPO) Export Volume Moderated by Inflation

Mahmud (Agribusiness Study Program, Faculty of Agriculture, Universitas Ekasakti, Padang)
Wawan Sumarno (Agribusiness Study Program, Faculty of Agriculture, Universitas Ekasakti, Padang)
Nessa Amelia (Agribusiness Study Program, Faculty of Agriculture, Universitas Ekasakti, Padang)
Gusriati (Agribusiness Study Program, Faculty of Agriculture, Universitas Ekasakti, Padang)
Wanda Ramadhana (Management Study Program, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Teuku Umar)

Formosa Journal of Science and Technology (FJST)
Vol. 5 No. 6 (2026): June 2026

This study examines the effects of exchange rates, GDP, commodity prices, and inflation on Indonesia’s CPO export volume. A quantitative approach was employed using secondary time-series data from January 2018 to December 2024, comprising 84 observations. Data were analyzed using PLS-SEM with SmartPLS 4.1.1. The results indicate that exchange rates and GDP positively and significantly affect CPO export volume. Conversely, commodity prices exert a negative and significant effect, whereas inflation has no direct significant influence. Furthermore, inflation strengthens the exchange rate–export relationship but weakens the effects of GDP and commodity prices on Indonesia’s CPO exports