Jurnal Pengembangan Teknologi Informasi dan Ilmu Komputer
Vol 3 No 2 (2019): Februari 2019

Implementasi Metode Exponential Smoothing Untuk Prediksi Bobot Kargo Bulanan Di Bandara Internasional I Gusti Ngurah Rai

Amaliah Gusfadilah (Fakultas Ilmu Komputer, Universitas Brawijaya)
Budi Darma Setiawan (Fakultas Ilmu Komputer, Universitas Brawijaya)
Bayu Rahayudi (Fakultas Ilmu Komputer, Universitas Brawijaya)



Article Info

Publish Date
07 Jan 2019

Abstract

Goods are important objects to meet people's needs and sometimes the procurement of goods can be done by transferring goods. Transfer of goods can use shipping via air transportation. However, the weight of the cargo indirectly can affect the speed of delivery. So that it demands the airport to always improve the provision of adequate facilities to meet the needs of cargo weight. To be able to meet these demands a mature prediction is needed. The prediction of cargo weight aims to determine cargo weight data in the future by using cargo weight data in the past. The prediction method used in this study uses the Exponential Smoothing method. Exponential Smoothing is a method that continually perfects predictive results by smoothing past values ​​of a data sequence by decreasing time. In this study comparing 3 Exponential Smoothing methods including Single Exponential Smoothing, Double Exponential Smoothing, and Triple Exponential Smoothing, where the method is used to generate predictive values ​​and then evaluate the results of predictions using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The smallest MAPE is found in the Triple Exponential Smoothing method spanning 5 years with parameter values ​​α = 0.9, β = 0.1, and γ = 0.1 of 13.563. Based on the MAPE values ​​that have been obtained between 10 and 20, the Triple Exponential Smoothing method is included in the good criteria.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

j-ptiik

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Engineering

Description

Jurnal Pengembangan Teknlogi Informasi dan Ilmu Komputer (J-PTIIK) Universitas Brawijaya merupakan jurnal keilmuan dibidang komputer yang memuat tulisan ilmiah hasil dari penelitian mahasiswa-mahasiswa Fakultas Ilmu Komputer Universitas Brawijaya. Jurnal ini diharapkan dapat mengembangkan penelitian ...