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Hasih Pratiwi
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hpratiwi@mipa.uns.ac.id
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+6282134673512
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ijas@mipa.uns.ac.id
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Study Program of Statistics, Universitas Sebelas Maret, Surakarta 57126, Indonesia
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Kota surakarta,
Jawa tengah
INDONESIA
Indonesian Journal of Applied Statistics
Published by Universitas Sebelas Maret
ISSN : -     EISSN : 2621086X     DOI : https://doi.org/10.13057/ijas
Core Subject : Economy, Science, Agriculture, Social,
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Computer Science & IT Earth & Planetary Sciences Economics, Econometrics & Finance Environmental Science
Indonesian Journal of Applied Statistics (IJAS) is a journal published by Study Program of Statistics, Universitas Sebelas Maret, Surakarta, Indonesia. This journal is published twice every year, in May and November. The editors receive scientific papers on the results of research, scientific studies, and problem solving research using statistical method. Received papers will be reviewed to assess the substance of the material feasibility and technical writing.
Arjuna Subject : Matematika - Statistik dan Probabilitas
Articles 8 Documents
 1 
Search results for , issue "Vol 4, No 2 (2021)" : 8 Documents clear
Front Matter Vol 4 No 2 2021 Hasih Pratiwi
Indonesian Journal of Applied Statistics Vol 4, No 2 (2021)
Publisher : Universitas Sebelas Maret

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.13057/ijas.v4i2.56839

Abstract

Pemodelan Determinan Pernikahan Dini di Daerah Pedesaan dengan Pendekatan Regresi Logistik Biner Aloysius Bela Boro; Siskarossa Ika Oktora
Indonesian Journal of Applied Statistics Vol 4, No 2 (2021)
Publisher : Universitas Sebelas Maret

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.13057/ijas.v4i2.46865

Abstract

Abstract. The behavior of early marriage in Indonesia is still high and most prevalent in rural areas. In addition to violating the law, a marriage performed before reaching 19 years also has many negative effects. One of them is the death of the mother and the baby. Using data from the Demographic and Health Survey 2017, this study aims to analyze the determinants of early marriages in rural areas in Indonesia. The response variable used is binary categorical data, namely the status of early marriage and not early marriage, so we use a binary logistic regression. The steps performed on this model include estimates of parameters, parameter testing either simultaneously or partially, and a test of the goodness of fit. The results show that the variables of education level, internet access, and wealth index significantly affected early marriage status in rural areas in Indonesia in 2017. Based on the goodness of fit result, this model is proper for modeling early marriage behavior in Indonesia. The study results can be used as a reference for the government in formulating policies to overcome the problem of early marriage in rural areas in Indonesia. Keywords: early marriage, rural area, categorical response variable, binary logistic regression
Back Matter Vol 4 No 2 2021 Hasih Pratiwi
Indonesian Journal of Applied Statistics Vol 4, No 2 (2021)
Publisher : Universitas Sebelas Maret

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.13057/ijas.v4i2.56840

Abstract

Peramalan Data Inflow dan Outflow Uang Kartal Bank Indonesia Provinsi DKI Jakarta Menggunakan Model ARIMAX dan SARIMAX Atika Amalia; Etik Zukhronah; Sri Subanti
Indonesian Journal of Applied Statistics Vol 4, No 2 (2021)
Publisher : Universitas Sebelas Maret

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.13057/ijas.v4i2.45673

Abstract

Abstract. DKI Jakarta Province plays a crucial role as the center of government and economy in Indonesia. The description of currency inflows and outflows is highly required before Bank Indonesia formulates the appropriate policies to control the circulation of money. The monthly data of currency inflow and outflow of Bank Indonesia of DKI Jakarta show a significant increase in each year particularly before, during, and after Eid al-Fitr. The determination of Eid al-Fitr does not follow the Gregorian calendar but based on the Islamic calendar. The difference in the use of the Gregorian and Islamic calendars in a time series causes a calendar variation. Thus, the determination of Eid al-Fitr in the Gregorian calendar changes as it goes forward eleven days each year or one month every three years. This study aims to obtain the best model and forecast currency inflows and outflows of Bank Indonesia DKI Jakarta using the ARIMAX and SARIMAX models. The study used in-sample data from January 2009 to December 2018 and out-sample data from January to October 2019. The best model was selected based on the smallest out-sample MAPE value. The result showed that the best forecasting model of inflow was ARIMAX (1,0,1). Meanwhile, the best forecasting model for outflow was SARIMAX (2,0,1)(0,0,1)12.Keywords: ARIMAX, calendar variation, forecasting, SARIMAX
Application of Analytic Hierarchy Process and Weighted Product Methods in Determining the Best Employees Sri Harjanto; Setiyowati Setiyowati; Retno Tri Vulandari
Indonesian Journal of Applied Statistics Vol 4, No 2 (2021)
Publisher : Universitas Sebelas Maret

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.13057/ijas.v4i2.44059

Abstract

Abstract. Employees are one of the company's assets that must be managed properly. Therefore the selection of the best employees is now needed. The problem faced in determining the best and qualified employees is that there are still no standards in assessing only one person subjectively in determining the best employee, which consequently lacks appropriate or objective results. To provide rewards for the best employees, we need a system to support the decisions of the best employees who deserve to receive rewards to be on target. The purpose of this research is to design and build a decision support system application in determining the best employees using the analytic hierarchy process and weighted product methods. Stages of software development of the Software Development Life Cycle (SDLC) uses a waterfall, that is data analysis, system design, construction, coding, testing and implementation. The results of this process are in the form of calculation applications that have been obtained from the analytic hierarchy process and weighted product methods in determining the best employee. The result gives an accuracy rate of 82.3%.Keywords: analytic hierarchy process, weighted product, decision support system, employees
Early Detection of South Korean Financial Crisis using MS-GARCH Based on Term of Trade Indicator Husna Afanyn Khoirunissa; Sugiyanto Sugiyanto; Sri Subanti
Indonesian Journal of Applied Statistics Vol 4, No 2 (2021)
Publisher : Universitas Sebelas Maret

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.13057/ijas.v4i2.49169

Abstract

Abstract. The 1997 Asian financial crisis, which occurred until 1998, had a significant impact on the economies of Asian countries, including South Korea. The crisis brought down the South Korean currency quickly and sent the economy into sudden decline. Because the impact of the financial crisis was severe and sudden, South Korean requires a system which able to sight crisis signals, therefore that, the crisis will be fended off. One in all the indicators that can detect the financial crisis signals is that the term of trade indicator which has high fluctuation and change in the exchange rate regime. The mixture of Markov Switching and volatility models, Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH), or MS-GARCH could explain the crisis. The MS-GARCH model was built using data from the South Korean term of trade indicator during January 1990 until March 2020. The findings obtained in this research can be inferred that the best model of the term of trade is MS-GARCH (2,1,1). Term of trade indicator on that model could explain the Asian monetary crisis in 1997 and also the global monetary crisis in 2008. The smoothed probability of term of trade indicators predicts in April till December 2020 period, there will be no signs of the monetary crisis in South Korea.Keywords: financial crisis, MS-GARCH, South Korea, term of trade indicator
Penerapan Metode Limited-Fluctuation Credibility dalam Menentukan Premi Murni pada Asuransi Kendaraan Bermotor di PT XYZ Mira Zakiah Rahmah; Aceng Komarudin Mutaqin
Indonesian Journal of Applied Statistics Vol 4, No 2 (2021)
Publisher : Universitas Sebelas Maret

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.13057/ijas.v4i2.51794

Abstract

Abstract. This paper discusses the method of limited-fluctuation credibility, also known as classic credibility. Credibility theory is a technique for predicting future premium rates based on past experience data. Limited fluctuation credibility consists of two credibility, namely full credibility if Z = 1 and partial credibility if Z <1. Full credibility is achieved if the amount of recent data is sufficient for prediction, whereas if the latest data is insufficient then the partial credibility approach is used. Calculations for full and partial credibility standards are used for loss measures such as frequency of claims, size of claims, aggregate losses and net premiums. The data used in this paper is secondary data recorded by the company PT. XYZ in 2014. This data contains data on the frequency of claims and the size of the policyholder's partial loss claims for motor vehicle insurance products category 4 areas 1. Based on the results of the application, the prediction of pure premiums for 2015 cannot be fully based on insurance data for 2014 because the credibility factor value is less than 1. So based on the limited-fluctuation credibility method, the prediction of pure premiums for 2015 must be based on manual values for pure premiums as well as insurance data for 2014. If manual values for pure premium is 2,000,000 rupiah, then the prediction of pure premium for 2015 is 1,849,342 rupiah.Keywords: limited fluctuation credibility, full credibility, partial credibility and partial loss
Model Variasi Kalender pada Regresi Runtun Waktu untuk Peramalan Jumlah Pengunjung Grojogan Sewu Etik Zukhronah; Winita Sulandari; Isnandar Slamet; Sugiyanto Sugiyanto; Irwan Susanto
Indonesian Journal of Applied Statistics Vol 4, No 2 (2021)
Publisher : Universitas Sebelas Maret

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.13057/ijas.v4i2.47163

Abstract

Abstract. Grojogan Sewu visitors experience a significant increase during school holidays, year-end holidays, and also Eid al-Fitr holidays. The determination of Eid Al-Fitr uses the Hijriyah calendar so that the occurrence of Eid al-Fitr will progress 10 days when viewed from the Gregorian calendar, this causes calendar variations. The objective of this paper is to apply a calendar variation model based on time series regression and SARIMA models for forecasting the number of visitors in Grojogan Sewu. The data are Grojogan Sewu visitors from January 2009 until December 2019. The results show that time series regression with calendar variation yields a better forecast compared to the SARIMA model. It can be seen from the value of  root mean square error (RMSE) out-sample of time series regression with calendar variation is less than of SARIMA model.Keywords: Calendar variation, time series regression, SARIMA, Grojogan Sewu

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