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All Journal Jurnal Statistika Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang Jurnal Kesehatan Masyarakat Jurnal Edukasi dan Penelitian Informatika (JEPIN) International Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research Indonesian Journal of Applied Statistics BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan EKO-REGIONAL JURNAL PENGEMBANGAN EKONOMI WILAYAH Jurnal Aplikasi Statistika & Komputasi Statistik Jurnal Litbang Sukowati : Media Penelitian dan Pengembangan Jurnal Varian Jurnal Statistika dan Aplikasinya Jurnal Kependudukan Indonesia STATISTIKA PROCEEDINGS OF THE INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON DATA SCIENCE AND OFFICIAL STATISTICS Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia Economic and Finance in Indonesia Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Jurnal Ekonomi Kesehatan Indonesia Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Its Applications

Siskarossa Ika Oktora

Politeknik Statistika STIS

Author-ID : 3379373

Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Humanities Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Earth & Planetary Sciences Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Energy Engineering Environmental Science Health Professions Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Medicine & Pharmacology Physics Public Health Social Sciences Transportation Other

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DETERMINAN PENGANGGURAN TERDIDIK DI PROVINSI NUSA TENGGARA TIMUR (NTT) TAHUN 2018 MENGGUNAKAN REGRESI LOGISTIK BINER Maria Valentina Makung; Ristanto Hadi; Yohana Rosaripatria; Siskarossa Ika Oktora
Jurnal Statistika Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang Vol 9, No 2 (2021): Jurnal Statistika
Publisher : Department Statistics, Faculty Mathematics and Natural Science, Universitas Muhammadiyah S

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.26714/jsunimus.9.2.2021.64-78

Pengangguran telah menjadi masalah serius yang harus diselesaikan di NTT. Tingkat pengangguran di NTT telah meningkat dari tahun ke tahun. Ironisnya, tingkat pengangguran ini didominasi oleh pengangguran terdidik. Berdasarkan data dari BPS, tingkat pengangguran di NTT tahun 2018 cenderung menurun, tetapi pengangguran yang berpendidikan meningkat. Dengan menggunakan data Sakernas Agustus 2018, penelitian ini bertujuan untuk melihat faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi pengangguran terdidik di NTT yang dilihat berdasarkan karakteristik individualnya. Karakteristik individu yang digunakan adalah jenis kelamin, usia, status rumah tangga, status perkawinan, pelatihan kerja, pengalaman kerja, dan daerah tempat tinggal. Metode analisis yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah analisis deskriptif dan regresi logistik biner. Hasil analisis deskriptif menunjukkan karakteristik tenaga kerja terdidik di NTT tahun 2018 mayoritas memiliki usia 15-24 tahun, jenis kelamin perempuan, tidak berstatus kepala rumah tangga, tidak pernah menikah, tidak pernah berpartisipasi dalam pelatihan kerja, memiliki pengalaman kerja dan tinggal di wilayah perkotaan. Hasil inferensia menunjukkan bahwa variabel yang mempengaruhi pengangguran berpendidikan adalah variabel umur, status rumah tangga, status perkawinan, pengalaman kerja dan daerah tempat tinggal. Sementara jenis kelamin dan pelatihan kerja tidak memengaruhi tenaga kerja terdidik untuk menjadi pengangguran. Hasil penelitian ini sangat penting bagi pemerintah NTT untuk mengambil kebijakan yang tepat untuk menyelesaikan pengangguran terdidik.

Determinants of Leprosy Prevalence in Sulawesi Island Using Spatial Error Model Geraldi Putra P Balebu; Siskarossa Ika Oktora
Jurnal Varian Vol 5 No 2 (2022)
Publisher : Universitas Bumigora

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30812/varian.v5i2.1632

Leprosy is one of the infectious diseases and has become a serious health problem in Indonesia. Based on the publication of the Health Ministry of Republik Indonesia, there are still many areas in Indonesia that have not reached the leprosy elimination status, one of which is Sulawesi Island. The condition of leprosy prevalence in Sulawesi Island is still fluctuating and tends to be high. In addition, leprosy can also be spread across regions. This study aims to analyze whether a spatial effect is present on leprosy prevalence and determine the variables that possibly affect leprosy prevalence. Data used are from Health Profile and Province in Figure publications with an analysis unit consisting of 81 districts/cities. The results show that there is a spatial effect on leprosy prevalence in Sulawesi Island. Queen contiguity-based spatial weights are also considered while performing the spatial analysis. Based on the results of Spatial Error Models can be concluded that population density, the number of multibacillary (MB) leprosy cases, and spatial effect significantly affect the leprosy prevalence. In contrast, a clean and healthy lifestyle, proper water access, and proper sanitation access do not significantly affect the leprosy prevalence.

Analisis Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) pada Prediksi Ketertinggalan Kabupaten Tahun 2014 Siskarossa Ika Oktora
Jurnal Aplikasi Statistika & Komputasi Statistik Vol 7 No 2 (2015): Journal of Statistical Aplication and Statistical Computing
Publisher : Pusat Penelitian dan Pengabdian Masyarakat Politeknik Statistika STIS

The purposes of this research are to build underdeveloped regency model and make a prediction in 2014 based on economic categories, Human Resources (HR), infrastructures, fiscal capacity, accessibility, and regional characteristics with MARS method. MARS is a classification method which can handle highdimensional data with unknown pattern in advance, and can be applied to see the interaction between variables. MARS is an alternative method when the data doesn’t fulfil the parametric statistics assumptions. From MARS model, there are three variables that affect underdeveloped regency, they are consumption expenditure per capita, life expectancy, and percentage of household electricity users. The accuracy of MARS model is very high, 97.83 percent and can be used to make a prediction. Based on MARS model, at the end of the National Development Plan 2010-2014 is predicted a significant transitions in regency’s status. This model can also be used to predict the condition of new regency based on empirical data, because in the earlier classification, the status of regency just follows the status of parent region.

DETERMINAN STATUS UNMET NEED FOR LIMITING BIRTH PADA WANITA USIA SUBUR BERSTATUS KAWIN DI JAWA BARAT TAHUN 2017 Valencia Shabrina Putri; Siskarossa Ika Oktora
Jurnal Kependudukan Indonesia Vol 15, No 1 (2020)
Publisher : Research Centre for Population, Indonesian Institute of Sciences

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14203/jki.v15i1.449

Rapid annual population growth in West Java, the province with the highest population in Indonesia, is concerning due to its effect that could lead to population explosion in the future. One of the reasons for this rapid growth is caused by a high birth rate. However, the implementation of the family planning program to control the birth rate faced a challenge in terms of unmet need for family planning in women of reproductive age. Unmet need for limiting birth has a more critical role in total unmet birth control need. This study aims to determine factors that affect the unmet need for limiting birth at married women of reproductive age in West Java Province in 2017 using binary logistic regression. Results indicated that women's age, women's education level, husband's education level, and residence significantly affected unmet need status for limiting birth. Also, the tendency of unmet need for limiting birth is greater for women aged 35-49 years, has education junior high school and above, the husband has under junior high school education and living in the rural area.

Pemodelan Determinan Pernikahan Dini di Daerah Pedesaan dengan Pendekatan Regresi Logistik Biner Aloysius Bela Boro; Siskarossa Ika Oktora
Indonesian Journal of Applied Statistics Vol 4, No 2 (2021)
Publisher : Universitas Sebelas Maret

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.13057/ijas.v4i2.46865

Abstract. The behavior of early marriage in Indonesia is still high and most prevalent in rural areas. In addition to violating the law, a marriage performed before reaching 19 years also has many negative effects. One of them is the death of the mother and the baby. Using data from the Demographic and Health Survey 2017, this study aims to analyze the determinants of early marriages in rural areas in Indonesia. The response variable used is binary categorical data, namely the status of early marriage and not early marriage, so we use a binary logistic regression. The steps performed on this model include estimates of parameters, parameter testing either simultaneously or partially, and a test of the goodness of fit. The results show that the variables of education level, internet access, and wealth index significantly affected early marriage status in rural areas in Indonesia in 2017. Based on the goodness of fit result, this model is proper for modeling early marriage behavior in Indonesia. The study results can be used as a reference for the government in formulating policies to overcome the problem of early marriage in rural areas in Indonesia. Keywords: early marriage, rural area, categorical response variable, binary logistic regression

THE IMPACT OF ZERO IMPORT TARIFF POLICY AND AIR POLLUTION PREVENTION AND CONTROL ACTION PLAN ON INDONESIAN COAL EXPORT TO CHINA Nanda Bagus Rahmawan; Siskarossa Ika Oktora
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 12 No 1 (2018)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Indonesia dan Tiongkok merupakan pelaku utama perdagangan batu bara dunia. Indonesia adalah eksportir batu bara terbesar dan pemasok utama kebutuhan batu bara Tiongkok, sedangkan Tiongkok adalah importir batu bara terbesar di dunia. Kebijakan tarif impor nol persen pada komoditas batu bara yang diterapkan Tiongkok pada Januari 2008, berdampak pada meningkatnya ekspor batu bara Indonesia ke Tiongkok. Namun, setelah Tiongkok mengeluarkan kebijakan Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan, ekspor batu bara Indonesia ke Tiongkok mulai menurun pada tahun 2014. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mempelajari pengaruh kebijakan tarif impor nol persen dan Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan terhadap ekspor batu bara Indonesia ke Tiongkok. Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah analisis intervensi multi input. Data yang digunakan berasal dari Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS). Hasil dari penelitian menunjukkan bahwa kebijakan tarif impor nol persen yang diterapkan oleh Tiongkok memiliki pengaruh yang signifikan positif dan permanen terhadap ekspor batu bara Indonesia ke Tiongkok. Sementara itu, kebijakan Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan memiliki pengaruh yang signifikan negatif dan permanen. Rekomendasi kebijakan adalah implementasi kebijakan tentang standar minimum kualitas batu bara yang dihasilkan. Dengan demikian, kualitas ekspor batu bara Indonesia dapat menyesuaikan spesifikasi permintaan pasar dari negara pengimpor yang menerapkan kebijakan pengendalian pencemaran udara. Indonesia and China are the main actors of world coal trading. Indonesia is the largest coal exporter and the main supplier of Chinese coal needs, while China is the world's largest coal importer. The zero import tariff policy on coal commodities applied by China in January 2008, has an impact on increasing Indonesian coal exports to China. However, after China issued its policy of Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan, Indonesian coal exports to China began to decline in 2014. The objective of this research is to study the influence of zero import tariff policy and Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan to the Indonesian coal exports to China. The method used in this research is the multi-input intervention analysis. Data used are developed from BPS. The results show that the zero import tariff policy applied by China has significantly positive and permanent effect on Indonesian coal exports to China. Meanwhile, the policy of Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan has significantly negative and permanent effect. Policy recommendation is the implementation of policy about minimum standards of coal quality that may be produced. Thus, Indonesian coal exports quality will able to adjust market demand specification from importing countries that implement policies about pollution control.

The Impact of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) on the Indonesian Apparel Export Siskarossa Ika Oktora; Nora Muhtasib
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 13 No 1 (2019)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Abstrak Perkembangan Teknologi Informasi dan Komunikasi (TIK) berdampak pada perdagangan dalam era digital. Produk pakaian jadi merupakan komoditas utama dalam perdagangan yang ditunjukkan oleh tingginya permintaan untuk komoditas pakaian jadi. Hal tersebut menjadi peluang bagi pertumbuhan industri pakaian jadi dalam negeri, tidak hanya untuk memenuhi konsumsi domestik tetapi juga untuk memperluas pasar luar negeri. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh TIK seperti penggunaan telepon seluler dan terbukanya akses internet, serta variabel lainnya seperti PDB, kurs, populasi, dan jarak terhadap ekspor pakaian jadi Indonesia ke sepuluh mitra dagang utama selama periode 2010-2016 dengan menggunakan model gravitasi pada data panel. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa TIK negara-negara tujuan ekspor berpengaruh signifikan terhadap ekspor pakaian jadi Indonesia, sedangkan TIK Indonesia memberikan hasil yang tidak signifikan. Sementara untuk variabel lainnya, hanya PDB yang berpengaruh signifikan, sedangkan kurs, populasi dan jarak tidak signifikan. Salah satu penyebab mengapa TIK Indonesia tidak signifikan adalah adanya kesenjangan yang lebar pada persentase pengguna internet antar wilayah, yang salah satunya disebabkan oleh tidak meratanya ketersediaan jaringan internet. Perluasan jaringan internet dengan kualitas baik akan dapat menghubungkan para desainer, industri hilir dan pedagang pakaian dalam rantai pemasaran yang lebih luas, selain keterlibatan Indonesia dalam Global Value Chain (GVC). Kata kunci: Perdagangan Internasional, TIK, Industri Pakaian, Model Panel Gravity Abstract The Information and Communication Technology (ICT) development has impacted on trade sector in the digital era. Apparel is the main trading commodity which is indicated by a high demand for apparel commodities. There is an opportunity for domestic apparel industry, not only to satisfy domestic consumption but also to expand overseas market. This research aims to analyze the impact of ICT such as the use of cellular telephone and the open access to internet, as well as other variables such as GDP, REER, Population, and Distance on Indonesian apparel export to ten main importers during 2010-2016, by using panel gravity model. This study found that ICT of the export destination countries significantly affected Indonesian apparel export, while Indonesia’s ICT gave insignificant result. Other variables that have significant impact was GDP. While REER, Population, and Distance gave insignificant impact. The reasons for this situation due to a wide gap of internet users percentage between regions because of the unevenly distributed internet sevices. This study suggested, in addition to Indonesia’s better participation in the Global Value Chain (GVC), the expansion of good quality internet networks would enable designers, downstream industries and apparel traders to connect in a broader marketing chain. Keywords: International Trade, ICT, Apparel Industry, Panel Gravity Model JEL Classification: P45, O33, L67, C33

DAMPAK KEBIJAKAN TRADE REMEDY TERHADAP EKSPOR COATED PAPER INDONESIA KE AMERIKA SERIKAT MENGGUNAKAN MODEL ARIMA INTERVENSI Diva Amadea; Siskarossa Ika Oktora
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 15 No 1 (2021):
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30908/bilp.v15i1.454

Abstrak Indonesia merupakan salah satu negara dengan hutan tropis terluas di dunia yang memiliki kekayaan sumber daya hutan dan keanekaragaman hayati di dalamnya. Salah satu komoditas ekspor unggulan Indonesia yang merupakan hasil hutan adalah kertas. Pada periode 2006-2018, volume ekspor kertas ke beberapa negara tujuan utama ekspor menunjukkan tren yang terus menurun termasuk ke Amerika Serikat. Penurunan volume ekspor kertas di beberapa negara tersebut terkait dengan masalah yang dihadapi industri kertas Indonesia, yakni pengenaan kebijakan trade remedy oleh Amerika Serikat terkait praktik dumping dan subsidi produk coated paper Indonesia. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh dan besarnya dampak dari pengenaan trade remedy terhadap ekspor kertas Indonesia ke Amerika Serikat dengan model ARIMA Intervensi. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah volume ekspor kertas (coated paper) bulanan (kg) dari Januari 2006 hingga Desember 2018. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa pengenaan kebijakan trade remedy oleh Amerika Serikat berpengaruh signifikan menurunkan volume ekspor kertas Indonesia ke negara tersebut. Dampak pengenaan kebijakan trade remedy oleh Amerika Serikat terhadap produk ekspor coated paper Indonesia langsung dirasakan saat kebijakan diberlakukan yaitu pada bulan Januari 2010. Dampak penurunan terbesar terjadi pada bulan Maret 2010, dengan penurunan sebesar 5.015 ton atau mencapai 91,07%. Dampak negatif dari kebijakan trade remedy terhadap ekspor kertas Indonesia ke Amerika Serikat berlangsung sepanjang waktu penelitian dan dapat menjadi permanen jika tidak dilakukan intervensi kebijakan. Kebijakan yang direkomendasikan diantaranya adalah penguatan Portal Satu Data Perdagangan sebagai bagian dari penguatan administrasi bukti-bukti khususnya substansi dari sisi hukum untuk membantah tuduhan yang diberikan. Peningkatan performa ekspor coated paper Indonesia juga dapat disiasati dengan mencari pasar ekspor nontradisional. Kata Kunci: Trade Remedy, Ekspor Kertas, Model ARIMA Intervensi Abstract Indonesia is one of the countries with the largest tropical forest in the world, which has a wealth of forest resources and biodiversity. One of the main Indonesia export from forest products is paper. In 2006-2018, the paper volume export to several main export destination countries showed a downward trend, including the United States. The decline in the paper volume export in several countries is related to problems facing the Indonesian paper industry, which imposes a trade remedy policy by the United States regarding dumping practices and subsidies for Indonesian coated paper products. This study aims to analyze the effect and magnitude of the imposition of trade remedy on Indonesian paper exports using the ARIMA Intervention model. The data used in this study is the volume of monthly coated paper exports (kg) from January 2006 to December 2018. The results show that the imposition of a trade remedy policy has a significant effect on reducing Indonesian paper exports. The impact of the trade remedy policy imposed by the United States on Indonesian coated paper exports was immediately felt in January 2010. The highest decline occurred in March 2010, with a decrease of 5,015 tons or reaching 91.07%. The negative impact of the trade remedy policy on Indonesia's paper exports to the United States lasts throughout the time of the study and is considered permanent if no policy intervention is made. Policy recommendations include strengthening the One Trading Data Portal as part of strengthening the evidence's administration, especially the substance of the law, to dispute the charge given. The permanent negative impact on the performance of coated paper exports to the United States can also be overcome by seeking nontraditional export markets .Keywords: Trade Remedy, Coated Paper Exports, ARIMA Intervention Model JEL Classification: F13, F68, C22

Determinants of Information and Communication Technology Sector Development in Java Island, 2016-2020 Ira Helsa Triana; Siskarossa Ika Oktora
EKO-REGIONAL Vol 17, No 2 (2022)
Publisher : Jurusan Ilmu Ekonomi dan Studi Pembangunan Universitas Jenderal Soedirman

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.32424/1.erjpe.2022.17.2.3167

The Information and Communication Technology (ICT) sector is one of the main drivers of economic growth, so the condition of the ICT sector becomes an essential factor in development. The ICT sector consists of the manufacturing and service sectors whose main activities are related to the development, production, commercial and intensive use of ICT. In 2016-2020, six provinces on Java Island became the provinces with the highest IP-ICT scores. Java Island had a GDP share of 59 percent of Indonesia's GDP in 2020. Meanwhile, the ICT sector's GDP share of Indonesia's total GDP was 4.25 percent in 2020. This study aims to analyze factors that affect the development of the ICT sector in Java Island , 2016-2020. The data used is secondary data from Statistics Indonesia. Using the panel data regression, the results show that the number of workers in the ICT sector, the average length of schooling, and internet users had a significant and positive effect on the development of the ICT sector in Java Island in 2016-2020. The level of household consumption for telecommunications has no significant impact on ICT sector development in Java in 2016-2020.

Determinants of Multidrug-Resistant Pulmonary Tuberculosis in Indonesia: A Spatial Analysis Perspective Ni Luh Evindia Andini; Siskarossa Ika Oktora
Jurnal Varian Vol 6 No 1 (2022)
Publisher : Universitas Bumigora

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30812/varian.v6i1.1973

Tuberculosis is caused by Mycobacterium Tuberculosis (MT). MT usually attacks the lungs and causes pulmonary-tuberculosis. Tuberculosis cases in Indonesia keep increasing over the years. The presence of Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis (MDR-TB) has been one of the main obstacles in eradicating tuberculosis because it couldn’t be cured using standard drugs. In fact, the success rate of MDR-TB treatment in 2019 at the global level was only 57 percent. Research on MDR-TB can be related to the spatial aspect because this disease can be transmitted quickly. This study aims to obtain an overview and model the number of Indonesia’s pulmonary MDR-TB cases in 2019 using the Geographically Weighted Negative Binomial Regression (GWNBR) method. The independent variables used in the model are population density, percentage of poor population, health center ratio per 100 thousand population, the ratio of health workers per 10 thousand population, percentage of smokers, percentage of the region with PHBS policies, and percentage of BCG immunization coverage. The finding reveals that the model forms 12 regional groups based on significant variables where GWNBR gives better results compared to NBR. The significant spatial correlation implies that the collaboration among regional governments plays an important role in reducing the number of pulmonary MDR-TB.

Co-Authors Aghnia Ussyarovi Aloysius Bela Boro Amalia Pasaribu, Asysta Anang Kurnia Andrian Dwi Putra Angel Zushelma Hartono Bagus Sartono Butar Butar, Daniel Daffa Dhiaulhaq, Hafsha Dewi Novita Sari Diva Amadea Ermawan, Geri Yesa Ernawati Pasaribu Fitriyani Sahamony, Nur Geraldi Putra P Balebu Geri Yesa Ermawan Ibnu Santoso Ika Yuni Wulansari Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Its Applications IJSA Ira Helsa Triana Leonita Amara Husna Metanda Maksum, Fadhila Annisa Maria Valentina Makung Matualage, Dariani Metanda, Leonita Amara Husna Muhammad Rizqi Fachrian Nur Nanda Bagus Rahmawan Nashif Satria Ramadhan Ni Luh Evindia Andini Nora Muhtasib Nursaliyawati, Adella Siti Primanda, Etsa Ristanto Hadi Salsabila, Annisa Nur Sari, Rika Dwi Puspita Siti Muchlisoh Subriandi, Askar Tata Pacu Maulidina Valencia Shabrina Putri Wulansari, Ika Yuni Yafi’, Muhammad Almas Yohana Rosaripatria Zulfa Nur Fajri Ramadhani

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