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Media Statistika

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Articles 271 Documents

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PEMODELAN DATA KEMISKINAN DI PROVINSI SUMATERA BARAT DENGAN METODE GEOGRAPHICALLY WEIGHTED REGRESSION (GWR) Maggri, Ilham; Ispriyanti, Dwi
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 6, No 1 (2013): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Counting the number of poor have often been modeled as a function of a global regression, which meant that the regression coefficient value applied to all geographic regions. Though this assumption was not always valid because of the differences in geographic locations most likely causing the spatial heterogeneity. In case of spatial heterogeneity, the regression parameters would vary spatially, so if the global regression model was applied, would produce an average value of those regression parameters which vary spatially. This study uses the method Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) to analyze data that contains spatial heterogeneity. In GWR model estimation, the model parameters are obtained by using the Weighted Least Square (WLS) which gives a different weighting in each location. This study discusses the factors that influence the level of poverty in the province of West Sumatra. Suitability test of the model results shows that there is no influence of spatial factors on the level of poverty in the province of West Sumatra. The results shows that there are four variables that are assumed to affect the level of poverty in the province of West Sumatra, they are the variable of floor space, the facility to defecate, ability to pay the cost of health center / clinic and educationÂ levels of household head. The four variables have a similar effect in every city and county.Keywords : Poverty, Spatial Heterogeneity, Geographically Weighted Regression

PERBANDINGAN KLASIFIKASI NASABAH KREDIT MENGGUNAKAN REGRESI LOGISTIK BINER DAN CART (CLASSIFICATION AND REGRESSION TREES) Waluyo, Agung; Mukid, Moch. Abdul; Wuryandari, Triastuti
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 7, No 2 (2014): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Credit is the greatest asset managed the bank and also the most dominant contributor to the bankâ€™s revenue. Debtors to pay their credit to the bank may smoothly or jammed. This study aims to identify the variables that affect a debtorâ€™s credit status and compare the acuration of classification method both classification and regression trees (CART)Â and logistic regression. The variables used were debtorâ€™s gender, education level, occupation, marital status, and income. By using logistic regression, it was known that only the debtorâ€™s income effect their credit status with the classification accuration reach into 80%. By using CART, there were some variables affect the credit status and the classification accuration 80,9%. This paper showed that the performance of CART in classifying the credit status of debtors was better than logistic regression.Â Keywords: Credit Status, Logistic Regression, CART Â

ANALISIS PENGARUH LOKASI DAN KARAKTERISTIK KONSUMEN DALAM MEMILIH MINIMARKET DENGAN METODE REGRESI LOGISTIK DAN CART Rokhana Dwi Bekti; Noviana Pratiwi; Maria Titah Jatipaningrum; Dina Auliana
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 10, No 2 (2017): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Konsumen saat ini memiliki banyak pilihan untuk berbelanja memenuhi kebutuhan sehari-hari, baik di pasar modern maupun tradisional, serta ritel khususnya dalam bentuk minimarket. Dengan demikian persaingan antar minimarket juga sangat tinggi. Setiap minimarket memiliki strategi pemasaran yang berbeda-beda, karena karakteristik konsumen dalam berbelanja juga berbeda-beda. Dalam strategi pemasaran, informasi dari berbagai aspek, yaitu dapat dari segi konsumen, pasar, pesaing, maupun produk sangat diperlukan. Pada penelitian ini melakukan analisis factor yang berpengaruh pada minat konsumen yang berbelanja di minimarket. Factor yang dikaji adalah dari segi konsumen, baik karakteristik maupun lokasi tempat tinggal. Data yang digunakan adalah data primer dengan melakukan survey wawancara pada konsumen di Kecamatan Ngaglik, Kab. Sleman, DIY. Sedangkan sampel minimarket adalah Indomaret. Metode analisis yang digunakan adalah regresi logistik dan Classification and Regression Trees (CART). Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa faktor-faktor yang signifikan berpengaruh terhadap minat belanja di Indomaret dengan metode regresi logistik adalah variabel jenis kelamin, pengeluaran rata-rata perbulan, dan lokasi tempat tinggal konsumen. Sedangkan factor berperan penting dalam pembentukan pohon klasifikasi CART adalah juga lokasi. Apabila dibandingkan berdasarkan nilai ketepatan klasifikasi, metode CART, sebagai metode nonparametrik yang tidak memiliki asumsi distribusi tertentu, menghasilkan ketepatan klasifikasi yang lebih tinggi dibandingkan regresi logistik.

ANALISIS SISTEM ANTRIAN KERETA API DI STASIUN BESAR CIREBON DAN STASIUN CIREBON PRUJAKAN Sugito, Sugito; Fauzia, Marissa
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 2, No 2 (2009): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Queue system is a group of customer, service, and some rules to regulate arrival customers. Queue happened if a customers which need a serve more than service capacity. Phenomenon queue will find easily in public facility. One of is trainÂ queue at Cirebon Main Train StationÂ and Cirebon Prujakan Train Station. Queue happened from train awaiting to be ridden away and from train which would to go to station, so that makes sometimes inappropriate arrival and departure the train of schedule resulting cumulative of train passenger candidate. To analyseÂ problems of train queue happened in station Cirebon can be applied the application of the queue theory. The steps must to do is by to create the examination where the queue happened. Based on those analysis can be known queue model and performance measure of queue system. And from data analysis can get two best kind of model for service system at Cirebon Main Train Station, that is (M/M/1):(GD/âˆž/âˆž) and (G/G/3):(GD/âˆž/âˆž). And two model service system at Cirebon Prujakan Train station, that is (M/G/2):(GD/âˆž/âˆž) and (M/G/1):(GD/âˆž/âˆž). Â Keywords : Queue System, The Cirebon Station, Queue Model

PERHITUNGAN VALUE AT RISK DENGAN PENDEKATAN THRESHOLD AUTOREGRESSIVE CONDITIONAL HETEROSCEDASTICITY-GENERALIZED EXTREME VALUE Mutik Dian Prabaning Tyas; Di Asih I Maruddani; Rita Rahmawati
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 12, No 1 (2019): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Stock is the most popular type of financial asset investment. Before buying a stock, an investor must estimate the risks which will be received. Value at Risk (VaR) is one of the methods that can be used to measure the level of risk. When investing in stock, if an investor wants to earn high returns, then he must be prepared to face higher risks. Most of stock return data have volatility clustering characteristic or there are cases of heteroscedasticity and the distribution of stock returns has heavy tail. One of the time series models that can be used to overcome the problem of heteroscedasticity is the ARCH/GARCH model, while the method for analyzing heavy tail data is Extreme Value Theory (EVT). In this study used an asymmetrical ARCH model with the Threshold ARCH (TARCH) and EVT methods with Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) to calculate VaR of the stock return from PT Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk for the period of September 2012 to October 2018. The best chosen model is AR([3])–TARCH(1). At the 95% confidence level, the maximum loss an investor will be received within the next day by using the TARCH-GEV calculation is 0.18%.

ANALISIS PENGARUH STRATEGI BAURAN PEMASARAN TERHADAP PEMILIHAN MEREK LAPTOP MENGGUNAKAN REGRESI LOGISTIK MULTINOMIAL (Studi Kasus Mahasiswa Universitas Diponegoro) Himmah, Faiqotul; Wuryandari, Triastuti; Hoyyi, Abdul
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 5, No 1 (2012): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

One of necessity is considered very important in this era is necessity for information. The tools that Â support necessity of comsumerÂ Â for information, such as computer that use battery or better known as laptop. Laptop is a product often used by businessman/enterprise and academic actors also the student are no Â exception. There are many laptop brands that revolve in Indonesia, are the Acer brand, Toshiba, Hp, Axioo, Dell, and the brand in addition to those brands. This research aim to know the effect of marketing mix Â strategy, which consist of three variable factors: product, price, and promotion to the selection of laptop brand Â in Â Diponegoro Â University Â students. Â The Â sample Â of Â research Â taken Â by Â using Â non probabilityÂ Â sampling, Â that Â is Â purposive Â sampling Â technique Â dan Â accidental Â sampling technique. Analysis that used is multinomial logistic regression analysis, a regression analysis to Â solve Â problems Â where Â dependent Â variable Â has Â more Â than Â 2 Â categories Â with Â several independent variables. Based on the significance test for the overall model and the wald test for each parameter coefficient, consider that three of the marketing mixÂ variables has a relationship with the selection of laptop brand. The biggest probability estimates for the Acer brand in the group with medium product, high price, and high promotion in the amount of 77.461%. The biggest probability estimates for the Toshiba brand in the group with highproduct, Â high Â price, Â and Â medium Â promotion Â in Â the Â amount Â of Â 49.239%. Â The Â biggest probability estimates for the Hp brand in the group with medium product, medium price, and medium promotion in the Â amount of 46.074%. The biggest probability estimates for the Axioo-Dell brand Â in the group with with Â medium product,Â medium price,Â and Â medium promotion in the amount of 14.764%. The biggest probability estimates for the other brands in the group with medium product, high price, and medium promotion in the Â amount of 22.134%.

KAJIAN AKTIVITAS EKONOMI LUAR NEGERI INDONESIA TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI INDONESIA PERIODE 1998-2014 Hawari, Ryan; Kartiasih, Fitri
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 9, No 2 (2016): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Indonesia is a developing country which adopts an â€œopen economicâ€. That caused Indonesia economic is strongly influenced by factors that come from outside of Indonesia. External factors in this research is referred to foreign debt, foreign direct investment, trade openness and exchange rate of rupiah with USD. The analytical method in this research used Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) which will focused on Impulse Response Function (IRF) and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD). Based on result of IRF, exchange rate had a positive effect to economic growth, while foreign debt, foreign direct investment and trade openness had a negative effect to economic growth. Based on result of FEVD, shock on economic growth in Indonesia affected by economic growth itself (43.21%), followed by foreign debt (26.30%), trade openness (14.16%), foreign direct investment (8.29%) and exchange rate (8.04%)Â Keywords: economic growth, trade openness, VECM, IRF, FEVD

MODEL PENYUSUTAN DARAB JUMLAH PESERTA ASURANSI PADA ASURANSI JIWA Sunarsih, Sunarsih; Sakinata, Meidar
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 2, No 1 (2009): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Multiple decrement model in life insurance is a decrement model where the decrement of amount participants of insurance do not only because of just one cause of decrement but because of two or more causes of decrement, so that can provide various benefit in one policy of insurance program. In this paper, using two causes of decrement, that is disability and death. In construction of a multiple-decrement table, can be associated from the tables of single-decrement which have known. The number of premium payments for life insurance depends on what kind of insurance program that have been taken. A life insurance, the number of premium depends on of age, even though onÂ term insurance, except age is policy time period. Â Keywords: Insurance, Multiple Decrement Model

CREDIT SCORING MENGGUNAKAN METODE LOCAL MEANS BASED K HARMONIC NEAREST NEIGHBOR (MLMKHNN) Tatik Widiharih; Moch Abdul Mukid
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 11, No 2 (2018): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Credit Scoring is designed so that lenders can easily make decisions regarding whether a loan proposal from a prospective customer is worthy of approval or not. This study examines the application of the Multi Local Means Based K Harmonic Nearest Neighbor (MLMKHNN) method in the case of motorcycle credit in a financial institution. The classification capability of this method in detecting potential borrowers into the credit category is either good or bad compared to its previous method, Local Means Based K Harmonic Nearest Neighbor (LMKNN). In this case the MLMKHNN method has not shown better performance than the LMKNN method. At the same level of total accuracy, MLMKHNN requires more numbers of neighbors than the number of neighbors required by the LMKNN method. Keywords: sampling design, all possible samples, statistical efficiency, cost efficiency

PEMILIHAN PARAMETER THRESHOLD OPTIMAL DALAM ESTIMATOR REGRESI WAVELET THRESHOLDING DENGAN PROSEDUR FALSE DISCOVERY RATE (FDR) Suparti, Suparti; Tarno, Tarno; Haryono, Yon
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 1, No 1 (2008): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

If X is predictor variable and Y is responseÂ variable of following model Y = f (X) +e with function f is regression which not yet been known and e is independent random variable with mean 0 and variant , hence function of f can estimate with parametric and nonparametric approach. At this paper estimate f with nonparametric approach. Nonparametric approach that used is wavelet shrinkage or wavelet thresholding method. At function estimation with method of wavelet thresholding, what most dominant determine level of smoothing estimator is value of threshold. The small threshold give function estimation very no smoothly, whileÂ the big value of threshold give function estimation very smoothly. Therefore require to be selected value of optimal threshold to determine optimal function estimation. Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â One of the method to determine the value of optimal threshold is with procedure of False Discovery Rate ( FDR). In procedure of FDR, the optimal threshold determined by selection of level of significance. Smaller mount used significance progressively smoothly its . Â Keywords: Nonparametric regression, wavelet thresholding estimator, procedure of False Discovery Rate

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