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Indonesian Treasury Review: Jurnal Perbendaharaan, Keuangan Negara dan Kebijakan Publik

ITRev
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Published by Direktorat Jenderal Perbendaharaan Kementerian Keuangan

ISSN : 25272721 EISSN : 26224399 DOI : -

Core Subject : Economy,

Economics, Econometrics & Finance

Indonesian Treasury Review: Jurnal Perbendaharaan, Keuangan Negara dan Kebijakan Publik (ITRev) merupakan publikasi ilmiah yang memuat hasil penelitian, pengembangan, kajian dan pemikiran di bidang Perbendaharaan, Keuangan Negara, dan Kebijakan Publik. ITRev diterbitkan oleh Direktorat Jenderal Perbendaharaan, Kementerian Keuangan berdasarkan Surat Keputusan Direktur Jenderal Perbendaharaan No. KEP-269/PB/2016. ITRev memiliki 2 (dua) jenis ISSN (International Standard Serial Number) yaitu cetak dengan nomor p-ISSN adalah 2527-2721 dan online dengan nomor e-ISSN adalah 2622-4399. ITRev diterbitkan pertama kali pada tahun 2016 secara periodik dengan masa terbit empat kali setahun.

Arjuna Subject : -

Articles 239 Documents

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Threshold Effects of Foreign Holdings on ASEAN Sovereign Bond Yields Ardhiani Fadila; Tatang Ary Gumanti; Julia Safitri; Eka Handriani
Indonesian Treasury Review: Jurnal Perbendaharaan, Keuangan Negara dan Kebijakan Publik Vol. 11 No. 2 (2026): Indonesian Treasury Review: Jurnal Perbendaharaan, Keuangan Negara dan Kebijak
Publisher : Direktorat Jenderal Perbendaharaan, Kementerian Keuangan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33105/itrev.v11i2.1401

Research Originality — This study uniquely examines the non-linear effect of foreign ownership on sovereign bond yields in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand using a Panel Threshold Regression (PTR) model to identify specific inflection points, while differentiating from previous studies by accounting for market liquidity and foreign reserves. Research Objectives — This study aims to empirically assess the impact of foreign participation on 10-year government bond yields, determine the threshold levels altering this relationship, and evaluate whether market liquidity and foreign reserves act as transmission channels or risk buffers. Research Methods — Using quarterly panel data for Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand over the period 2009-2023, the empirical approach combines fixed-effect regression to capture baseline relationships with PTR to account for regime-dependent effects. Empirical Results — Findings reveal a strong non-linear negative influence of foreign investments on interest rates, with a critical threshold established at 10.2%. Below this cut-off, interest rates are highly sensitive and prone to rise, indicating market vulnerability, whereas an increase above this value effectively lowers interest rates. Implications — Contributing to the Term Structure of Interest Rate literature, this study demonstrates that emerging market bond dynamics are driven more by investor confidence than short-term instruments. Policymakers must maintain foreign participation within an optimal range to prevent sudden capital outflows and ensure market stability.

Special Allocation Funds and Poverty Alleviation: Evidence From Lagging and Non-Lagging Regions in Indonesia Santi Natalia Letelay; Riatu Mariatul Qibthiyyah
Indonesian Treasury Review: Jurnal Perbendaharaan, Keuangan Negara dan Kebijakan Publik Vol. 11 No. 2 (2026): Indonesian Treasury Review: Jurnal Perbendaharaan, Keuangan Negara dan Kebijak
Publisher : Direktorat Jenderal Perbendaharaan, Kementerian Keuangan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33105/itrev.v11i2.1409

Research Originality – This study offers a novel contribution by examining the poverty impact of Physical and Non-Physical Special Allocation Funds (DAK) within a multisectoral national framework. Unlike previous studies focusing on specific sectors or regions, this study compares DAK effectiveness across lagging and non-lagging regions, thereby revealing spatial heterogeneity in fiscal transfer outcomes. The findings provide an empirical basis for designing poverty alleviation strategies that differentiate fiscal interventions according to regional development status and geographical characteristics. Research Objectives – This study analyzes DAK disbursement from 2015 to 2023 and assesses the differential impacts of Physical and Non-Physical DAK on poverty in Indonesia. It also evaluates region-based fiscal policy effectiveness by examining DAK’s contribution to poverty alleviation, particularly in lagging regions. Research Methods – The analysis is based on a panel dataset of 380 regencies and municipalities over the period 2015–2023, estimated using a fixed effects model (FEM). Empirical Results – The results show that Non-Physical DAK significantly reduces poverty at the national level and in non-lagging regions, while Physical DAK is effective only in lagging archipelagic regions. These findings indicate that DAK effectiveness is spatially heterogeneous and depends on both regional development status and geographical characteristics. Implications – These results underscore that fiscal transfer effectiveness depends on recipients’ spatial and sectoral contexts. DAK allocation should therefore be spatially differentiated by regional development status and geography, prioritizing Physical DAK in lagging archipelagic regions and strengthening Non-Physical DAK in non-lagging areas to enhance human capital and accelerate poverty reduction.

Evaluating Agricultural Credit and Climate-Related Government Expenditure Effect on Agriculture GDRP in Indonesia Aln Pujo Priambodo; Alfiana Yuniarianti
Indonesian Treasury Review: Jurnal Perbendaharaan, Keuangan Negara dan Kebijakan Publik Vol. 11 No. 2 (2026): Indonesian Treasury Review: Jurnal Perbendaharaan, Keuangan Negara dan Kebijak
Publisher : Direktorat Jenderal Perbendaharaan, Kementerian Keuangan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33105/itrev.v11i2.1428

Research Originality – This research shifts from yearly national datasets to a quarterly sub-national analysis using a dual Fixed Effect Model (FEM) and output-oriented Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) framework. It establishes an empirical benchmark for sub-national climate finance synergy, addressing a significant gap in global literature. Research Objectives – The study aims to determine the impacts of agricultural credit and climate spending on regional GRDP, construct provincial efficiency benchmarks via DEA, and assess credit-expenditure synergy to inform performance-based fiscal management. Research Methods – A two-stage analysis was employed. First, an FEM—validated by Chow and Hausman tests—measured input impacts on agricultural GRDP. Second, a DEA based on Variable Returns to Scale (VRS) captured structural differences and economic capacities for benchmarking. Empirical Results – The FEM analysis shows that although credit instruments generated substantial marginal returns, the impact of climate-tagged expenditures was mixed. CA_SE demonstrated positive multipliers, while CM_SE and AGRI_LE were either non-significant or associated with negative impacts, indicating potential fiscal inefficiencies. The model had a high degree of fitness and passed the robust diagnostic tests, validating the coefficients. The analysis revealed a resource-performance gap where high-input provinces did not achieve efficient outputs, whereas eight provinces achieved an optimal resource-output efficiency ratio. Implications – The study advocates for performance-based fiscal policies over volume-based finance. It highlights that credit access requires optimized governance to ensure effectiveness and recommends transitioning from administrative mitigation spending toward performance-based infrastructural investments.

Integrating Ethical Values into the S.C.O.R.E. Model: A Perceptual Study on Asset Misappropriation Zakiyuddin Zakiyuddin; Hanik Susilawati Muamarah
Indonesian Treasury Review: Jurnal Perbendaharaan, Keuangan Negara dan Kebijakan Publik Vol. 11 No. 1 (2026): Indonesian Treasury Review: Jurnal Perbendaharaan, Keuangan Negara dan Kebijak
Publisher : Direktorat Jenderal Perbendaharaan, Kementerian Keuangan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33105/itrev.v11i1.1247

Research Originality — This study offers novelty by integrating ethical values into the S.C.O.R.E. model and examining their role among central government asset managers in Indonesia, a context distinct from prior research focusing on local government employees using traditional fraud frameworks. Research Objectives — The research aims to identify key determinants of perceived asset misappropriation among central government asset managers and examine the direct role of ethical values as an inhibiting factor. Research Methods — Employing a quantitative approach, the study analyzed primary data from 625 civil servants involved in state asset management using structural equation modeling (SEM) to test the relationships between variables. Empirical Results — The findings showed that opportunity, rationalization, and ego positively associated with asset misappropriation perceptions. Ethical values had a significant negative effect, indicating their deterrent role. However, stimulus and capability were not found to have significant effects. Rationalization emerged as the most influential factor, underscoring the importance of internal justifications in enabling fraudulent behavior. Implications — The study advances the S.C.O.R.E. model by introducing ethical values as a deterrent factor. It provides practical guidance for public institutions to strengthen ethics-based interventions, such as employee training and awareness programs, to mitigate asset misappropriation risks.

Sustainability Analysis of Tobacco Product Excise Revenue Sharing Funds (DBHCHT) and Tobacco Farmers’ Welfare in Jember Regency Sri Utami Zulaikhoh; Vicky Armando Ambate; Herman Cahyo Diartho
Indonesian Treasury Review: Jurnal Perbendaharaan, Keuangan Negara dan Kebijakan Publik Vol. 11 No. 1 (2026): Indonesian Treasury Review: Jurnal Perbendaharaan, Keuangan Negara dan Kebijak
Publisher : Direktorat Jenderal Perbendaharaan, Kementerian Keuangan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33105/itrev.v11i1.1269

Research Originality — Existing studies on tobacco excise predominantly examine its contribution to state revenue and broader fiscal performance, with limited attention to the sustainability of the Tobacco Product Excise Revenue Sharing Fund (DBHCHT) as a fiscal decentralization instrument. In particular, empirical investigations that assess the multidimensional sustainability of DBHCHT and its linkage to tobacco farmers’ welfare at the local level remain scarce. This study addresses this gap by providing a comprehensive sustainability assessment of DBHCHT and examining its implications for farmers’ welfare in Jember Regency. Research Objectives — The objective of this study is to assess the sustainability status of DBHCHT across economic, social, and environmental dimensions, and to analyze its influence on the welfare of tobacco farmers in Jember Regency. Research Methods — A quantitative descriptive research design was implemented. Multidimensional scaling (MDS) analysis was conducted using the Rapid Appraisal for DBHCHT approach to assess and quantify the sustainability status of DBHCHT across economic, social, and environmental dimensions. Empirical Result — The findings show that the sustainability of DBHCHT in Jember Regency is at a moderate level, indicating that the program has not achieved optimal performance across economic, social, and environmental dimensions. Several key aspects require strategic improvement to strengthen program effectiveness and alignment with local needs. Despite the substantial allocation of DBHCHT funds in 2023, the results suggest that the distribution has not generated a meaningful improvement in the welfare of tobacco farmers. Implications — This study provides policy recommendations for local governments, particularly regional financial management agencies and sectoral offices responsible for DBHCHT allocation, to redesign fund distribution mechanisms toward more targeted, transparent, and welfare-oriented programs. Strengthening monitoring, performance-based budgeting, and farmer-centered interventions is essential to ensure that DBHCHT effectively contributes to sustainable rural development.

Macroeconomic Determinants of Fiscal Risk in Indonesia: Evidence from an ARDL Approach David David; Albertus Kurniadi Hendartono; Okta Martua Sitanggang
Indonesian Treasury Review: Jurnal Perbendaharaan, Keuangan Negara dan Kebijakan Publik Vol. 11 No. 1 (2026): Indonesian Treasury Review: Jurnal Perbendaharaan, Keuangan Negara dan Kebijak
Publisher : Direktorat Jenderal Perbendaharaan, Kementerian Keuangan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33105/itrev.v11i1.1337

Research Originality — Many studies identify the effect of macroeconomic dynamics on government debt by using cross-country data. However, such approach often fails to fully explain country-specific characteristics. To address the gap, this research focuses on Indonesia by assessing the effect of macroeconomic volatility on its fiscal sustainability involving a dataset that spans the periods of major economic shocks, including the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Research Objective — This paper focuses on empirically investigating the effect of GDP growth, inflation, and exchange rate fluctuations on government debt as a measure of fiscal risk in Indonesia. Research Methods — This research used annual data from 1993 to 2024. The fiscal risk in this study was measured from government debt as the dependent variable. It also used the economic growth, inflation, and USD/IDR exchange rate as the independent variables of the macroeconomic parameters. The ARDL method was used by the researchers to illustrate the relationship between variables in both the short-term and the long-term. Empirical Results — The findings show that in the long-term, economic growth and inflation will reduce government debt, whereas exchange rate depreciation will increase it. Meanwhile, in the short-term, only inflation and exchange rate will affect government debt. Implications — The result of the research provides empirical evidence to support policymakers in formulating the policy to manage fiscal sustainability during macroeconomic shocks. These findings can also support the government in developing scenario analyses across different macroeconomic conditions.

Efficiency or Waste? Rethinking Indonesia’s Mandatory Public Spending on Education and Health Farhan Hadiantoro; Puji Wibowo
Indonesian Treasury Review: Jurnal Perbendaharaan, Keuangan Negara dan Kebijakan Publik Vol. 11 No. 1 (2026): Indonesian Treasury Review: Jurnal Perbendaharaan, Keuangan Negara dan Kebijak
Publisher : Direktorat Jenderal Perbendaharaan, Kementerian Keuangan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33105/itrev.v11i1.1346

Research Originality — Existing studies on public spending efficiency in the education and health sectors largely rely on aggregated measures, failing to distinguish between fundings sourced from the national budget (APBN) or regional budgets (APBD), or to account for variations in detailed expenditure composition. This study addresses these gaps by offering a disaggregated assessment of mandatory public spending across Indonesian provinces, explicitly incorporating funding source differentiation and expenditure types through the application of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and the Malmquist Index. Research Objective — This study assesses the efficiency and productivity of mandatory public spending in Indonesia’s education and health sectors by distinguishing funding sources (APBN or APBD) and expenditure types across provinces. Research Methods — This study utilizes DEA using the BCC model under Variable Returns to Scale (VRS) with an output-oriented specification. This approach is suitable in the context of mandatory public spending where budget allocations cannot be minimized and efficiency must be accomplished. In addition, the Malmquist Productivity Index is also employed to analyze productivity volatility during observed periods. Empirical Results — The results indicate that only two provinces consistently maintain efficiency in both sectors. Health spending is found to be relatively less efficient than education spending, with considerable variation across regions. Provinces in Java record the highest efficiency levels, while those in Sulawesi, Maluku, and Papua exhibit comparatively lower efficiency. Inefficiencies are more pronounced in regional budgets (APBD), indicating governance and allocation issues at the provincial level. The Malmquist index demonstrates varying productivity trajectories between sectors, and only a few provinces achieve both high efficiency and positive productivity growth.

The Role of Financial Development in Achieving Sustainable Development Rizky Malia Brily; Samba Dewangga Suharto; Sri Mulatsih; Yeti Lis Purnamadewi
Indonesian Treasury Review: Jurnal Perbendaharaan, Keuangan Negara dan Kebijakan Publik Vol. 11 No. 1 (2026): Indonesian Treasury Review: Jurnal Perbendaharaan, Keuangan Negara dan Kebijak
Publisher : Direktorat Jenderal Perbendaharaan, Kementerian Keuangan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33105/itrev.v11i1.1379

Research Originality — This study provides a novel contribution by examining how financial institutions and financial markets influence sustainable development, using environmental, social, and governance (ESG) performance as an overall indicator. The research is comprehensive and not overly explored in existing literature because it employs a dynamic panel methodology and incorporates trade and investment variables to provide a broader perspective. Research Objectives — The proposed study will examine whether financial development can go beyond just increasing access to financial services to also fostering sustainable economic growth free from negative social or environmental effects. Research Methods — This paper uses panel data on 56 countries from 2016 to 2023. In a dynamic relationship, the system generalised method of moments (SYS-GMM) is used to apply a dynamic panel data method to overcome endogeneity and dynamic relationships. Empirical Result — The results indicate that ESG performance can support sustainable development in the short term, while its long-term success depends on stronger policies and regulatory frameworks. Traditional approaches to financial development can hinder the achievement of ESG goals, but proper regulation can steer financial systems towards sustainability objectives. Economic growth, measured by GDP, often conflicts with ESG performance, although international trade can contribute positively to a sustainable economy when backed by green trade policies. Additionally, foreign direct investment has minimal impact unless there is a focus on sustainable sectors. Implications — The study emphasizes the need for policy and regulatory reforms to better align financial development and economic growth with sustainability goals. It also highlights the importance of green trade policies and targeted investment strategies in promoting sustainable development outcomes.

Revisiting the Inflationary Impact of Fuel Subsidies: Insights from Indonesia’s Exposure to Global Oil Price and Exchange Rate Risks Axellina Muara Setyanti; Muhammad Fansurullah Harsa
Indonesian Treasury Review: Jurnal Perbendaharaan, Keuangan Negara dan Kebijakan Publik Vol. 11 No. 1 (2026): Indonesian Treasury Review: Jurnal Perbendaharaan, Keuangan Negara dan Kebijak
Publisher : Direktorat Jenderal Perbendaharaan, Kementerian Keuangan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33105/itrev.v11i1.1394

Research Originality — Existing studies on fuel subsidies and inflation largely focus on short-run effects or examine subsidy policies and external factors separately, with limited integration of global oil prices and exchange rates within a long-run framework, particularly in Indonesia. In addition, the transmission mechanisms through which fuel subsidy policies affect inflation remain insufficiently explored. This study addresses these gaps by conducting an integrated analysis of fuel subsidy policies and external macroeconomic pressures in both short- and long-run dynamics, while explicitly distinguishing between fuel subsidy expenditure and subsidized fuel prices as separate policy channels using a VECM approach. Research Objectives — This study aims to analyze the influence of fuel subsidy policy on inflation and the differences in short-term adjustment dynamics and long-term equilibrium in the domestic price system in Indonesia. Research Methods — This study utilizes a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) using monthly data from 2006 to 2024. The study also incorporates various variables related to fuel subsidy allocation, subsidized fuel price, world oil price, rupiah/US dollar exchange rate, and Consumer Price Index (CPI). VECM is a model that can be used to check for long-run cointegration relationships between various variables. It also estimates the speed of adjustment to equilibrium in the short-run. Hence, VECM is an appropriate model for analyzing the dynamic relationship between various factors in determining inflation. Empirical Results — The results of the present investigation revealed the presence of long-run cointegration among fuel subsidies, global oil prices, exchange rates, and inflation. It was revealed that in the long-run, an increase in world oil prices as well as the depreciation of the exchange rate have a positive impact on inflation. In the short run, it was revealed that an increase in the price of subsidized fuel has a positive impact on inflation. Furthermore, throughout the entire investigation period, it was revealed that inflation has a strong level of persistence. Implications — The findings indicate the need for gradual fuel subsidy reforms in coordination with fiscal policy and exchange rate stabilization to minimize inflationary pressures and maintain household purchasing power amid global volatility. The study also contributes to the literature on fiscal and energy economics in developing countries by showing that the impact of subsidies needs to be understood within the framework of the dynamic interaction between energy pricing policies, external risks, and macroeconomic stability, rather than just being seen as a partial policy.

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Sofyan Atsauri

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