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INDONESIA
Jurnal Sains Dirgantara
Published by Lembaga Penerbangan dan Antariksa Nasional
ISSN : -     EISSN : -     DOI : -
Core Subject : Education,
Education
Arjuna Subject : -
Articles 6 Documents
 1 
Search results for , issue "Vol 4, No 2 (2007)" : 6 Documents clear
ANALISIS POLA CURAH HUJAN INDONESIA BERBASIS LUARAN MODEL SIRKULASI GLOBAL (GCM) Sinta Berlian Sipayung; Lely Qodrita Avia; Bambang Dwi Dasanto; - Sutikno
Jurnal Sains Dirgantara Vol 4, No 2 (2007)
Publisher : Lembaga Penerbangan dan Antariksa Nasional

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Abstract

The analysis of rainfall pattern over indonesia based on the Global Circulation Model (GCM) such as the CGCM3.1(T47) and CSIRO Mk-3 for one hundred years observation (1900-2000) over three different types of Indonesia rainfall pattern has already been done. They are Lampung, Jakatra, and Kupang for the monsoon type, Ambon for the local type, and Padang and Solok for the equatorial type, repectively. Since the grid resolution of the GCM data is low relatively, we applied the Statistical Downscalling (SD) based on the Pricipal Component Regression (PCR). We found an a good agreement between both model with the rainfall in-situ measurement in between 0.6 up 0.76, except for Kupang. We found also that both model has a similar pattern comparing with the rainfall in-situ measurement. While, by applying the Principal Component Regression (PCR), we found an a good agreement also of both model than 65% with the total variability is about 90%.
KETERKAITAN AKTIVITAS MATAHARI DENGAN SUHU PERMUKAAN LAUT ( SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE/SST) DAN ENSO DI ATAS INDONESIA Wilson Sinambela; Tiar Dani; Iyus E. Rusnadi
Jurnal Sains Dirgantara Vol 4, No 2 (2007)
Publisher : Lembaga Penerbangan dan Antariksa Nasional

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Abstract

This paper present the relationships between long-term solar activities and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over Indonesian regions. Analysis on the relatioships between these parameters is carried out by using wavelet-base analysis techniques and correlation analysis. The wavalet Transform-base analysis (WWZ) for SST anomaly time series are gouped for overall Indonesian SST (SSTI), Western Indonesia SST (SST KIB), Middel Indonesian (SST KITeng) and Eastern Indonesian SST (SST KIT). And also grouped by season, dry season (JJA) and wet season (DJF) during the period of 1860-2005. The WWZ result for SST anomaly time series over Indonesia show some long period main signals with periods of 83 year, (50, 33, 25) year, (9-13) year which are suspected to be associated with solar activity sycles of 80-110 year (Gleissberg cycle), 50 year (interdecadal cycle), 22 year (cycle Hale) and 11-year of solar activity. There are also appear some signals with shorter periods of (3-7) year, (1.5-2.7) year, and (0.5-1) year which are suspected to be associated with ENSO, QBO, and seasonal / annual effects, respectively. From the result of long-term correlation analysis between solar activities with solar cycle length indicator and the 11 and 22 year running moving average Indonesian SST anomalies show good correlation for all data group. While the SST over KIT shows a negative correlation, but during of 1950-2005 shows s positive correlation.
ANALISIS GERAK BINTIK MATAHARI BIPOLAR SEBELUM TERJADI FLARE PADA NOAA 0484 TANGGAL 21 DAN 22 OKTOBER 2003 Rasdewita Kesumaningrum; Clara Y. Yatini; Santi Sulistiana
Jurnal Sains Dirgantara Vol 4, No 2 (2007)
Publisher : Lembaga Penerbangan dan Antariksa Nasional

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Abstract

In this reserach we analyzed the proper motion of individual sunspots whithin sunspots group NOAA 0484 in association with M2,4 and M1,7 flires occured on 21 October 2003 and 22 october 2003, respectively, using TRACE data (http://vestige.Imsal.com/TRACE). We measured the the movements of pairs of sunspots associated with flares relative to a reference spot in the active region whithin the period of 2 hours before the flare occurred and we calculated the mean velocities. We also measured the movements of other spots those were not associated with flares for comparisons. From these measurements and calculations, we found that (1) the distance between spots associated with flares are getting bigger especially in solar longitudinal direction and (2) they have bigger velocity that the other spots those were not associated to flares.
IDENTIFIKASI DAN KARAKTERISTIK SERUAK DINGIN (COLD SURGE) TAHUN 1995-2003 Edvin Aldrin; Gilang Satriya Adhi Utama
Jurnal Sains Dirgantara Vol 4, No 2 (2007)
Publisher : Lembaga Penerbangan dan Antariksa Nasional

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Abstract

The study identifies the cold suge characteristics that influence the rainfall season in the northwestern part of Indonesia. This study found the cold surge episode to be active and propagate to the equator right after 4 to 6 days of increasing cold surge indices in Hong Kong. The cold surge also interacts with the Borneo Vortex and the Easterly Wave as the main factor that hinder the cold surge propagation to the south. Basides, the cold surge propagation will block the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone movement to north at the end of the rainfall season and sometimes force the ITCZ to moce back southward to the 10-15S thus will incite more convective activities and large precipitations in south Indonesia especially over Java during the rainfall period in western part of Indonesia.
ANALISIS VARIABILITAS CURAH HUJAN DI SUMATERA BARAT DAN SELATAN DIKAITKAN GENGAN KEJADIAN DIPOLE MODE Eddy Hermawan; Sopia Lestari
Jurnal Sains Dirgantara Vol 4, No 2 (2007)
Publisher : Lembaga Penerbangan dan Antariksa Nasional

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Abstract

The rainfall variability over the Western and Southern part of Sumatera Island related to te Dipole Mode (DM) event for period of twenty years (1980-1999) based on the monhly mean of rainfall, Dipole Mode Index (DMI), Sea Surface Temparature (SST), and Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) data analysis have already investigated. By applying the spectral analysis technique Fast Fourier Transform (FFT), the most predominant peak ascillation of rainfall and DMI data has been identified. They are Semi Annual Oscillation (SAO) for Bukit Tinggi, Maninjau, and Sicincin sation, and Annual Oscillation (AO) for Padang-panjang, Padang, Batu Sangkar, Solok, Tabing, Bengkulu, Kotabumi, Jambi, and Palembang station, respectively. While the other predominant peak oscallation in period of 1.5 to 3 years are also found , especially on the DMI data analysis. It indicates that the rainfall variability over these areas could be related to the DM event, especially during DM (+) when the high pressure covers most of Indonesia region. When DM (+) occured, especially on JJA (June-July-August) and SON (September-October-November), the rainfall intensity over those area become less intil below normal condition. Conversely, when DM (-) occured, the amount of rainfall intensity is more than normal condition. Compared to DM (-), DM(+) looks more giving a significant influence to the rainfall in both areas.
PERKEMBANGAN MODEL PREDIKSI INDEKS K GEOMAGNET - Habirun; Titiek Setiawati; Yaya Karyanto
Jurnal Sains Dirgantara Vol 4, No 2 (2007)
Publisher : Lembaga Penerbangan dan Antariksa Nasional

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Abstract

Prediction model of daily K geomagnetic index was reconstructed based on K index pattern of 3-hourly data from Biak geomagnetic station during 1992. K index was observed according time sequence so that it is very complex, fluctuated, and without any pattern, due to stochastic properties. With such data, K index prediction model was analyzed based on the smoothing result by using a moving average of four data in time series analyzsis method through ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) model. The obtained prediction model of K index, from moving average of four data from the first 3 hours to the next eighth 3 hour, generally follow the ARIMA (2.0.0), ARIMA (2.0.1) and ARIMA (2.0.2) with very small error, less than 1((σ error than more 1) and the efficiency of 68.27%, 94.10% and 95.16%, respectively, during year 1996.

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