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INDONESIA
Jurnal Sains Dirgantara
Published by Lembaga Penerbangan dan Antariksa Nasional
ISSN : -     EISSN : -     DOI : -
Core Subject : Education,
Education
Arjuna Subject : -
Articles 6 Documents
 1 
Search results for , issue "Vol 4, No.1 Desember (2006)" : 6 Documents clear
PREDIKSI JANGKA PENDEK BULANAN JUMLAH FLARE DENGAN MODEL ARIMA (p,d,[q]), (P,D,Q)132 Nanang Widodo
Jurnal Sains Dirgantara Vol 4, No.1 Desember (2006)
Publisher : Lembaga Penerbangan dan Antariksa Nasional

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Abstract

The time series of the monthly of flares from January 1965 to December 2004 is analyzed by ARIMA models. It is suggested that there is any auto correlation between monthly data in regular and seasonal order (11 years solat activity cycle) in the ARIMA (p,d[q]), (P,D,Q)132 models. After several of feasibility test had successed and the assumption of stationary in mean and variance was obtained, we can determine the model i.e; ARIMA (1,1,[13])(0,1,1)132 and ARIMA (0,1,[13])(0,1,1)132. From this models, we can use to predict the monthly number of flares.
ANALISIS EVOLUSI GRUP SUNSPOT SPD WATUKASEK UNTUK MEMPEROLEH INDIKATOR KEMUNCULAN FLARE Nanang Widodo; Nur Aeni; - Sudarji; Ahmad Sodikin; - Marlan
Jurnal Sains Dirgantara Vol 4, No.1 Desember (2006)
Publisher : Lembaga Penerbangan dan Antariksa Nasional

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Abstract

In their evolution, sunspot groups change in its number, area, shape and its formation. Proper motion of sunspot group show twist and shear movement. Therefore, we measure the central position it preceding and following parts. The difference of angle between the preceding and following part in the evolution on (n + 1) thand n may indicated that in its evolution the sunspot group have changed the area. We suggest some indications for predicting flare using the maesurement of twist and shear of the spot in a group.
MODEL KOEFISIEN BALISTIK SATELIT LEO SEBAGAI FUNGSI CUACA ANTARIKSA S.L. Manurung; Heri Sutastio
Jurnal Sains Dirgantara Vol 4, No.1 Desember (2006)
Publisher : Lembaga Penerbangan dan Antariksa Nasional

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Abstract

The long term 1996-2003, of star or modified ballistic coefficients, B*, of five Low Earth Orbiting satellite, solar flux, F10.7 and geomagnetic planetary index Ap were analyzed to find out the effect of space weather on the ballastic coefficient of space craft. The daily variation and 81 days per moving average of ballistic coefficient and F10.7 were in phase, while both variation and Ap index were often out phase. Eventhough the mechanism of balliastic coefficient generated by space weather is still not known clearly, there is a statistically closed relation between ballistic coefficient and solar flux. The relationship, called model, is a second order polinomial function with different constants. Using before and after 2003 data of both parameter the models were verified. The range errors are less then the ralative error of pradicted ballistic coefficient of Bepposax satellite obtained by NASA/JFC a month before the satellite reentry.
ANALISIS DATA BLR DAN EAR DALAM MENGKAJI FENOMENA MJO DAN KETERKAITANNYA DENGAN CURAH HUJAN DI ATAS KOTOTABANG DAN SEKITARNYA Eddy Hermawan; Arief Suryantoro; Mega Puspawardhany; Tri Wahyu Hadi; Udjianna S. Pasaribu; Findy Renggono
Jurnal Sains Dirgantara Vol 4, No.1 Desember (2006)
Publisher : Lembaga Penerbangan dan Antariksa Nasional

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Abstract

This paper is mainly concerned to the analysis of Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) phenomena crossing over Kototabang, West Sumatere and surrounding areas using Boundary Layer Radar (BLR) and Equatorial Atmosphere Radar (EAR) data taken from September to December 2001 as cintinuing studied by Indriaty (2005). We are interested to continue, especially on the effect of MJO phenomena on the daily rainfall intensity distribution over Kototabang and surrounding area. We divided data into two steps analysis. First is the vertical profile analysi using BLR and EAR data, and the second step is surface analysis using RAINFALL INTENSITY DATA FROM TAKEN FROM THREE METEOROLOGICAL STATIONS IN wEST sUMATERA. tHEY ARE bADAN mETEOROLOGI DAN gEOFISIKA (bmg) Sicicin station (0.6˚LS; 100.22˚BT), BMG-Padangpanjang station (0.5˚LS; 100.41˚BT) and Statsiun Pengamat Dirgantara (SPD) LAPAN Kototabang (0.2˚LS; 100.32˚BT). The vertical profile of zonal-vertical wind vector of EAR data analysis shows that the pre-dominant wind mived to east direction, especially in surface layer, while in the upper troposhere the pre-dominant wind moved to the opposite direction, especially from September to December 2001. This result looks a siminar with the schematic theory of the MJO cross section along equator that described by Matthews (2000). A simiinar result is also shown by the BLR data analysis. Both EAR and BLR data are siminar each other. Since the MJO phenomena is expected passing over Kototabang around mid of November to mid of December 2001, we are interested to analysis the as already mentioned above using the global wavelet spectrum technique. The result shows that their pre-dominant peak ascillation is about 48 days. This result is consistent with the Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) anomaly taken from infra-red sensor of satellite that already been done by Matthews (2000). While, the cross correlation function (CCF) analysis between zonal wind and rainfall data shows unsignificant (very small) value. We suspect that the surface rainfall intensity over Kototabang and surrounding area is not mainly dominanted by MJO phenomena.
ANALISIS PERGERAKAN BINTIK MATAHARI DI DAERAH AKTIF NOAA 0375 Clara Y.Yatini; E.Sungging Mumpuni
Jurnal Sains Dirgantara Vol 4, No.1 Desember (2006)
Publisher : Lembaga Penerbangan dan Antariksa Nasional

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Abstract

The observation of flaring sunspots group (active region) has been conducted to obtain the characteristic of spot's motion. In active region NOAA 0375 the motion is divided in two periods, 3-8 June 2005, when the group was growing, and 10-12 June 2003 when it was decaying. By comparing the movement plots, we see that the strong flares were most produced when the active region was in the decaying phase.
VARIASI KANDUNAGN UAP AIR DI ATAS KOTOTABANG, SUMATERA BARAT HASIL ANALISIS DATA RADIO ACOUSTIC SOUNDING SYSTEM (RASS) SELAMA KEGIATAN CPEA-CAMPAIGN 2004 Eddy Hermawan; Fikri Muhammad Abdul Wahab
Jurnal Sains Dirgantara Vol 4, No.1 Desember (2006)
Publisher : Lembaga Penerbangan dan Antariksa Nasional

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Abstract

As we know since June 2001, the National Institute of Aeronautics and Space (LAPAN) and Research Institute for Sustainable Humanosphere (RISH) of Kyoto University, Japan has already stared to make a joint research at LAPAN-Kototabang under the Coupling Processes Equatorial Atmosphere (CPEA) project. There are many research activities have already been dano by both institutes. One of them is the estimation of Total Precipitable Water (TPW) in the lower troposphere at Kototabang, West Sumatera (0.2˚S; 100.32˚E) during the CPEA I Campaign stared from April 10 to May 9, 2004 using many instruments. The main purpose of this paper is we would like to show how the TPW parameter can be estimated from the Radio Acoustic Sounding System (RASS) and radiometer and their correlation with the surface rainfall data. We applied the Wiesner (1970) technique when we estimated the TPW with specific humidity and air density taken from RASS and radiomater, respectively. Then, we analyzed the Cross-Correlation Function (CCF) when we compared the TPW and Optical Rain Gauge (ORG) data. In the same time, we analyzed the Boundary Layer Radar (BLR) data also to investigate the updraft and downdraft air mass activities from surface up to 5 km. We can see here the consistency of BLR, RASS and radiomater data when we investigated the vertical profile of water vapor over Kototabang. We found also a time variation of TPW, especially on April 24 and May 5, 2005 are about 0.43 and 0.35, respectively. Although both values look small relatively, but they are inough significant statistically.

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