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Departemen Manajemen, FEB Universitas Indonesia, Jl. Prof. DR. Sumitro Djojohadikusumo, Kukusan, Kecamatan Beji, Kota Depok, Jawa Barat 16424
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INDONESIA
Indonesian Capital Market Review
Published by Universitas Indonesia
ISSN : 19798997     EISSN : 23563818     DOI : https://doi.org/10.7454/icmr
Core Subject : Economy,
Economics, Econometrics & Finance
The intent of the Editors of The Indonesian Capital Market Review is to discuss, to explore, and to disseminate the latest issues and developments in Empirical Financial Economics particularly those related to financial frictions in the Emerging Markets. The topics cover capital markets, financial institutions and services, corporate finance, risk modeling and management, market microstructure in financial markets, Islamic finance, behavioral finance, and financial crisis. By submitting your work to the Indonesian Capital Market Review (ICMR), the author(s) automatically agree to transfer the copyright to ICMR, if the submitted paper is accepted for publication.
Arjuna Subject : Ilmu Ekonomi, Ekonometrika dan Keuangan (semua kategori) - Keuangan
Articles 171 Documents
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Risk and Real Estate Investment Trust (REITs) Return: Evidence from Listed Public Trust Mohamad, Nor Edi Azhar Binti; Saad, Noriza Mohd; Bakar, Suzaida
Indonesian Capital Market Review Vol. 3, No. 1
Publisher : UI Scholars Hub

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Abstract

This study examines an association of risk and returns of REITs from Malaysian REITs listed companies. The secondary data for analysis is retrieved from Bloomberg's Database of all 13 listed REITs in the Bursa Malaysia main market for three year period, from 2007 to 2009 with quarterly observation. The dependent variables are average return, expected return using Capital Asset Pricing Model, Sharpe Index, and Jensen Alpha Index. The independent variables represented by standard deviation, beta, trading volume, gross domestic product, inlation rate, and share price. The control variable for this study is type of REITs, whether it was categorized as Islamic or conventional REITs. Applying correlations and multiple regression analysis, the results provide evidence on the association between return and risk on REITs. This study is also hoped to bring beneits to the public listed company and shareholders in obtaining the key factors in determining the REITs yield.
An Evaluation of Indonesian Capital Market Co-integration with ASEAN 4 to Enter the ASEAN Capital Market Integration in Accordance to ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) 2020 Scheme: Should Indonesia Enter or Postpone? Suryanta, Barli
Indonesian Capital Market Review Vol. 3, No. 1
Publisher : UI Scholars Hub

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Abstract

Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) Economic Community (AEC) 2020 has already been declared on 7 October 2003 by ASEAN Concord II in Bali, Indonesia. In general, AEC was designed to prepare ASEAN countries for ASEAN economic integration within the next 10-15 year. ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) had actually been launched since 1992 though was not comprehensive enough and kept ASEAN only partially integrated. To overcome it, ASEAN proposed inancial integration through capital market integration based on AEC commitment in order to reach comprehensive ASEAN economic integration. Indonesia is one of the ASEAN members that is linked by AEC 2020. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate Indonesian capital market co-integration in entering the ASEAN capital market integration compared to those of ASEAN 4. To examine the notion of the Indonesian capital market integration within ASEAN region, cointegration model is utilised to igure out co-integration between Indonesian stock market indices and ASEAN 4, i.e., Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand. In addition, Vector Auto-regression (VAR) model is also utilised to examine Indonesian market returns co-movement and dynamic link with ASEAN 4. The conclusions of this research, i.e. co-integration between Indonesian capital market with Singaporean, Malaysian, Philippines, and Thailand does not exist; there is neither co-movement nor strong dynamic link between Indonesian capital market with those of Singaporean, Malaysian, Philippines, and Thailand. This paper also recommends Indonesia to postpone the integration of its capital market into the integrated ASEAN capital market.
Financial Development and Economic Growth Nexus: The Moroccan Case Abouch, Mohamed; Ezzahid, Elhadj
Indonesian Capital Market Review Vol. 3, No. 1
Publisher : UI Scholars Hub

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Abstract

The issues of the existence and the direction of causality between inance and growth are not yet settled. Even if theoretical and historical evidences suggest an important contribution of inance to foster economic growth, empirical studies provide conlicting results depending upon analytical approaches, econometric techniques, and used data sets. The empirical exploration of the links between the development of the Moroccan inancial sector (MFS) and the economic performance of the country shed some light on the proile of this relationship. It appears that even if the indicators measuring the degree of development of the MFS have steadily evolved, they are not systematically and signiicantly linked with economic growth. This situation may be explained by the characteristics of the MFS and the existence of other factors, not related to this sector, that hinder economic growth.
Early Warning System in ASEAN Countries Using Capital Market Index Return: Modiied Markov Regime Switching Model Wahyudi, Imam; Luxianto, Rizky; Suryaputri, Niken Iwani; Sulung, Liyu Adhika Sari
Indonesian Capital Market Review Vol. 3, No. 1
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Abstract

Asia's financial crisis in July 1997 affects currency, capital market, and real market throughout Asian countries. Countries in southeast region (ASEAN), including Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand, are some of the countries where the crisis hit the most. In these countries, where financial sectors are far more developed than real sectors and the money market sectors, most of the economic activities are conducted in capital market. Movement in the capital market could be a proxy to describe the overall economic situation and therefore the prediction of it could be an early warning system of economic crises. This paper tries to investigate movement in ASEAN (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand) capital market to build an early warning system from financial sectors perspective. This paper will be very beneficial for the government to anticipate the forthcoming crisis. The insight of this paper is from Hamilton (1990) model of regime switching process in which he divide the movement of currency into two regimes, describe the switching transition based on Markov process and creates different model for each regimes. Differ from Hamilton, our research focuses on index return instead of currency to model the regime switching. This research aimed to ind the probability of crisis in the future by combining the probability of switching and the probability distribution function of each regime. Probability of switching is estimated by categorizing the movement in index return into two regimes (negative return in regime 1 and positive return in regime 2) then measuring the proportion of switching to regime 1 in t given regime 1 in t-1 (P11) and to regime 2 in t given regime 2 in t-1 (P22). The probability distribution function of each regime is modeled using t-student distribution. This paper is able to give signal of the 1997/8 crisis few periods prior the crisis.
Role of Indian Commodity Derivatives Market in Hedging Price Risk: Estimation of Constant and Dynamic Hedge Ratio, and Hedging Effectiveness Kumar, Brajesh; Pandey, Ajay
Indonesian Capital Market Review Vol. 3, No. 1
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This paper examines hedging effectiveness of four agricultural (soybean, corn, castor seed and guar seed) and seven non-agricultural (gold, silver, aluminium, copper, zinc, crude oil and, natural gas) futures contracts traded in India, using VECM and CCC-MGARCH model to estimate constant hedge ratio and dynamic hedge ratios, respectively. We ind that agricultural futures contracts provide higher hedging effectiveness (30-70%) as compared to non-agricultural futures (20%). In the more recent period, the hedging effectiveness of Indian futures markets has increased. When hedging effectiveness of non-agricultural Indian futures contracts with the world spot markets (NYMEX and LME) is analyzed, hedging effectiveness increases dramatically which indicates the fact that Indian futures contracts are more effective for hedging exposures to global prices. Other reasons of lower hedging effectiveness of Indian futures contracts may be low awareness of futures markets among participants, high transaction costs in the futures markets, policy restrictions, inadequate contract design, or high transaction costs in the spot market. These are, of course, expected birth pays for a nascent futures markets in an emerging economy.
Causal Nexus between Stock Price, Demand for Money, Interest Rate, Foreign Institutional Investment, and Exchange Rates in India: A Post Subprime Crisis Analysis Vyas, Iti; Prasad, Narayan; Mishra, Alok Kumar
Indonesian Capital Market Review Vol. 3, No. 2
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This paper makes an attempt to empirically examine the causal nexus between stock price, demand for money, interest rates, foreign institutional investment and exchange rates in India in the post subprime mortgage crisis period. The study employed Granger causality test, Vector Auto Regression and Johansen Maximum Likelihood procedure to examine the short run and long run dynamic interaction among the above mentioned variables for the period January 1993 to May 2009. The major indings of the study are: stock return affects exchange rate return, net foreign institutional investment and growth of demand for money. Growth of demand for money, in turn, affects interest rate. Interest rate is more affected by exchange rate return. Foreign institutional investment also affects interest rate. The co-integration test conirms that there does not exist any long run equilibrium relationship between stock return and exchange rate return
The Behavior and Determinants of Stock Market Index in Indonesia Wuryandani, Gantiah
Indonesian Capital Market Review Vol. 3, No. 2
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This research proves that the movement of Stock Market Index (JSX) in Indonesia does not follow random walk. Therefore, certain variables in inancial market inluence the movement of JSX. VECM and ECM testings show that regional index in ASEAN countries and Hongkong as well as exchange rate signiicantly affect JSX movement. This indicates a strong contagious effect of the stock market in Asia on the Indonesian stock market, which joined the exchange rate effects concurrently. On the other hand, monetary policy through Bank Indonesia rate (BI rate) less strongly affects the movement of JSX, albeit signiicant. Implicitly, this indicates that monetary policy transmission path through the stock market is still weak. Given the limited authority to intervene other country's stock market, the policy implication of this study suggests the authorities to maintain exchange rate stability. This especially relates to policies for speculative capital lows. It is the time for the authorities to establish policies to improve the effectiveness and eficiency of inancial markets as inancial intermediation
Moon Effect on Paciic Basin Stock Markets Brahmana, Rayenda Khresna; Hooy, Chee Wooi; Ahmad, Zamri
Indonesian Capital Market Review Vol. 3, No. 2
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This is an empirical study on the inluences of moon on seven stock markets, which are Indonesia, Malaysia, United Kingdom, United States, Philippines, Japan, and Thailand. The period is from January 1999 until December 2009 in daily basis. This study investigates the relationship between moon phase and market returns. We divided moon phases into new moon and full moon. While literature mention the relationship between moon phase and market returns, our research reject the null hypothesis in regression analysis. However, the descriptive catches the indication and conirmed previous research. It also proposes that the market is still rational and not moon-mood inluenced. This result is not contending the EMH theorem. Further research is needed in term of investigating the relationship between psychology factors (heuristic bias, information ignorance, and other factors) and investor behavior. The effect of moon on certain anomalies has to examine speciically.
Investors’ Behavior Placing Orders in Indonesia Stock Exchange Syamni, Ghazali
Indonesian Capital Market Review Vol. 3, No. 2
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The objective of this research is to analyze the behavior pattern of trading volume at opening and closing of market in Indonesia Stock Exchange. The behaviors pattern is structured by investors' decision in placing buy and sell orders. This research used intraday data transaction history-corporate edition demand and order history stock which included in pre-opening and LQ-45 in Indonesia Stock Exchange on March, April, and Mei 2005. The result of this research is investor place bigger order on the opening and closing markets than period trading. This shows that they are more carefully and more conservative in doing trades on the opening session. This can occur because of the large orders at the market opening is not necessarily for investors to execute the transaction order status match. Research has found that the pattern of investors in making orders morning session has a reverse J pattern and a pattern of J at afternoon session. Reverse J pattern in the morning session subject to lunch time and most of these patterns of behavior are driven by more dominant sell orders in comparison to buy orders, while the afternoon session or the closing of the market is caused by of investors who want to realize higher transaction match. Other implication is investors must be more active in observing all of the information in doing trading on pre opening, during, and closing of market.
Comparison in Measuring Effectiveness of Momentum and Contrarian Trading Strategy in Indonesian Stock Exchange Luxianto, Rizky
Indonesian Capital Market Review Vol. 3, No. 2
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This paper wants to explore the effectiveness of momentum or contrarian strategy in Indonesian Stock Exchange using different methods in measuring the performance. The point of momentum or contrarian strategy is selecting winner (stocks with highest gain) or loser stocks (stocks with highest loss) and then buy or sell it based on the research result. This research employed three methods in measuring performance to select winner and loser stocks. The irst method used cross section relative return, while the second method used cross section relative return plus risk component (return divided by standard deviation), and the third method employed historical relative return instead of cross section. The result is that, all of those three methods prove that momentum strategy is effectively applicable for winner stock, so in the next period winner stock will continue to make profit, while for loser stock, it is more effective to use contrarian strategy because in the next period, loser stock will rebound and make proit after suffering from high loss

Page 3 of 18 | Total Record : 171

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