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Tessy Octavia Mukhti
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INDONESIA
UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science
Published by Universitas Negeri Padang
ISSN : -     EISSN : 2985475X     DOI : 10.24036/ujsds
Core Subject : Science, Education, Social,
Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Mathematics Social Sciences
UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science is an open access journal (e-journal) launched in 2022 by Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Padang. UJSDS publishes scientific articles on various aspects related to Statistics, Data Science, and its application. Articles can be in the form of research results, case studies, or literature reviews. All papers were reviewed by peer reviewers consisting of experts and academicians across universities.
Arjuna Subject : Matematika - Statistik dan Probabilitas
Articles 202 Documents
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Comparison Performance of SARIMA and Exponential Smoothing Holt-Winter’s models for Forecasting turnover PT. Indah Logistik Cargo Padang Silvia Triana; Dina Fitria; Yenni Kurniawati; Admi Salma
UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science Vol. 3 No. 4 (2025): UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science
Publisher : Departemen Statistika Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/ujsds/vol3-iss4/432

Abstract

Forecasting is an important part of corporate decision making. With forecasting, companies can predict future conditions and demand so that they can make appropriate and strategic decisions. PT. Indah Logistik Cargo Padang's turnover data contains trend and seasonal elements that are forecasted using a time series model. This study was conducted to determine the best model for forecasting PT. Indah Logistik Cargo Padang's revenue in the coming period. The methods used in this study are the SARIMA method and Holt-Winter's Exponential Smoothing. The best model was obtained from the results of a comparative analysis of the two methods, as seen in the forecasting error rate determined by the mean absolute percentage error value. For forecasting the revenue of PT. Indah Logistik Cargo Padang, the best model used was SARIMA with a MAPE value of 3.9%.
Penerapan Model Log Linear Tiga Dimensi dalam Analisis Faktor Risiko Riwayat Sakit Maag Wita, Wita Resfi Ananta; Eujenniatul Jannah; Siti Nurhaliza; Yenni Kurniawati; Syafriandi Syafriandi
UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science Vol. 3 No. 4 (2025): UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science
Publisher : Departemen Statistika Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/ujsds/vol3-iss4/433

Abstract

Gastritis, or commonly known as an ulcer, is an inflammatory condition caused by excess stomach acid that irritates the stomach lining. This disease is one of the most common in Indonesia and often disrupts daily activities, especially among students who face academic pressure, stress, and irregular diet. Based on Indonesia’s Health Profile Data, gastritis ranks sixth for inpatients with 330,580 cases, 60.86% of which occur in women, and seventh for outpatients with 201,083 cases, of which 77.74% occur in women. This study aims to examine the relationship between gastritis and demographic factors using a three-dimensional log-linear model. The method analyzes interactions between categorical variables to identify the best explanatory model. Results indicate that the most appropriate model involves the interaction between place of residence, gender, and history of stomach ulcers, showing that these factors collectively influence gastritis incidence. In conclusion, gastritis is not only related to physical health but also lifestyle and demographic factors. This study underlines the importance for students to manage stress, maintain healthy eating habits, and adopt preventive measures. The urgency of this research lies in raising awareness that untreated gastritis may reduce productivity and lead to more serious health problems.

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