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Tessy Octavia Mukhti
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LPPM Universitas Negeri Padang, Jalan Prof. Dr. Hamka, Air Tawar Barat, Kota Padang, Sumatera Barat 25131
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UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science
Published by Universitas Negeri Padang
ISSN : -     EISSN : 2985475X     DOI : 10.24036/ujsds
Core Subject : Science, Education, Social,
Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Mathematics Social Sciences
UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science is an open access journal (e-journal) launched in 2022 by Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Padang. UJSDS publishes scientific articles on various aspects related to Statistics, Data Science, and its application. Articles can be in the form of research results, case studies, or literature reviews. All papers were reviewed by peer reviewers consisting of experts and academicians across universities.
Arjuna Subject : Matematika - Statistik dan Probabilitas
Articles 202 Documents
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An Application X-bar Chart and Statistical Process Control With R Package Rizkiah, Niswatul; Yenni Kurniawati
UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science Vol. 3 No. 2 (2025): UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science
Publisher : Departemen Statistika Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/ujsds/vol3-iss2/363

Abstract

Quality control is a critical aspect of ensuring that production processes meet established standards and customer requirements. One widely used approach in Statistical Quality Control (SQC) is the control chart, particularly the X̄ and s charts, which monitor process stability based on the mean and variability of the data. This study aims to evaluate the quality and variation of the feed water boiler process using X̄ and s control charts, as well as to assess process capability with the aid of the R programming language and the qcc package. The dataset comprises hardness measurements of water collected over 25 consecutive days, three times per day, resulting in 75 observations. Initial analysis revealed one data point outside the control limit in the X̄ chart, which, when excluded, improved overall process stability. The s chart indicated more consistent stability compared to the X̄ chart. Process capability analysis yielded Cp and Cpk values of 0.5844 and 0.5600, respectively, indicating that the process is not yet capable of fully meeting product specifications and exhibits relatively high variability.These findings highlight the need for process improvement through variation reduction and six sigma approaches.The use of R/qcc proved to be an effective tool for monitoring and analyzing quality control in production processes.
K-Means Cluster Analysis for Grouping Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) in Pesisir Selatan Regency arrahmi, nailul; Chairina Wirdiastuti; Yenni Kurniawati
UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science Vol. 3 No. 2 (2025): UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science
Publisher : Departemen Statistika Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/ujsds/vol3-iss2/364

Abstract

Small and Medium Industries (SMEs) play an important role in national economic growth through job creation, improving regional economies, and triggering entrepreneurial spirit. Although most SMEs operate on a limited scale with simple technology, this sector has great potential to grow if it receives sustainable support. However, SMEs in Pesisir Selatan Regency face various challenges, such as limited human resources, difficulty in accessing capital, and low utilization of technology. This study aims to analyze the grouping of SMEs in Pesisir Selatan Regency using the clustering method. Using secondary data on six types of SMEs in 15 sub-districts in 2023, this study applies the K-Means algorithm to group SMEs based on the characteristics of the dominant sector. The clustering results produce three main groups: first, sub-districts with high SME activity in the textile and food sectors; second, sub-districts with low SME activity in almost all sectors; and third, sub-districts with balanced SME activity in various sectors, such as apparel, beverages, furniture, and non-metallic minerals. These findings are expected to provide insight for local governments in formulating more targeted policies for the development of SMEs and equitable distribution of economic growth in Pesisir Selatan Regency.
Grouping of Provinces in Indonesia Based on Active Family Planning Participants Using Modern Methods Using Fuzzy C-Means Ramadhani, Annisa; Tessy Octavia Mukhti; Yenni Kurniawati; Zamahsary Martha
UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science Vol. 3 No. 2 (2025): UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science
Publisher : Departemen Statistika Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/ujsds/vol3-iss2/365

Abstract

Indonesia’s rapid population growth presents a significant challenge to national welfare and public health. One of the key strategies implemented by the government to address this issue is the Family Planning (FP) program, which emphasizes the use of modern contraceptive methods. However, the utilization of these methods remains uneven across provinces. This study aims to cluster Indonesian provinces based on the number of active participants using modern contraceptive methods in 2023 by applying the Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) clustering algorithm. FCM was selected due to its ability to handle overlapping data characteristics, allowing for a more flexible and representative analysis. The clustering results reveal two main clusters: Cluster 1, which consists of provinces with high levels of active modern contraceptive users, and Cluster 2, which includes provinces with low participation levels. These findings are expected to serve as a reference for more targeted policy formulation to enhance the equity and effectiveness of the FP program across the country.
Perbandingan metode Double Moving Average(DMA) dan Double Exponential Smoothing (Brown) Terhadap Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka (TPT) di Kota Padang Panjang. Fishuri, Nufhika; Fadhilah Fitri; Dony Permana
UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science Vol. 3 No. 2 (2025): UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science
Publisher : Departemen Statistika Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/ujsds/vol3-iss2/366

Abstract

The Open Unemployment Rate (TPT) is the percentage of unemployed people in the total labor force. The population included in the labor force is the population aged 15 years and over who has a job but is temporarily not working. Unemployment occurs because of a mismatch between the demand for employment and the qualifications of job seekers. Many job vacancies require graduates with a diploma or degree, so unemployment is one of the problems faced by Padang Panjang City. To overcome TPT in Padang Panjang City, one of the needs is to do forecasting to see how the TPT rate will occur in the coming year. This research uses a forecasting method by comparing the Double Moving Average (DMA) and Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) forecasting values of the Unemployment Rate in Padang Panjang City from 2006 to 2023. This forecasting is done to provide insight into the future condition of the workforce in Padang Panjang City. The results of the forecasting indicate that in 2024, there will be an increase of 0.42%, and for the next 2 years, there will be a decrease
Forecasting Analysis of Total Coconut Production in Padang Pariaman Using the Double Exponential Smoothing Holt Della Amelia; Zilrahmi; Fitri Mudia Sari
UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science Vol. 3 No. 2 (2025): UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science
Publisher : Departemen Statistika Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/ujsds/vol3-iss2/367

Abstract

Kelapa merupakan buah khas daerah tropis yang memiliki banyak manfaat. Kelapa memiliki arti penting yang strategis bagi Indonesia. Sumatera Barat merupakan salah satu provinsi penghasil kelapa di Indonesia dengan total produksi sebesar 88 ribu ton pada tahun 2023. Dimana Kabupaten Padang Pariaman merupakan kabupaten penghasil kelapa terbesar di Provinsi Sumatera Barat dengan total produksi sebesar 38.794 ton pada tahun 2022. Kelapa merupakan salah satu komoditas utama dan sumber perekonomian di Kabupaten Padang Pariaman. Melihat pentingnya peranan kelapa di Kabupaten Padang Pariaman, maka perlu dilakukan peramalan produksi kelapa untuk mengetahui kondisi hasil perkebunan tersebut. Double Exponential Smoothing merupakan metode yang sesuai digunakan dalam peramalan jumlah produksi kelapa di Kabupaten Padang Pariaman. Hal ini dikarenakan metode ini sesuai dengan data yang memiliki pola trend. Hasil peramalan menunjukkan bahwa produksi kelapa pada tahun 2024 sampai dengan tahun 2028 adalah sebesar 39.506,16 ton, 39.943,43 ton, 40.380,7 ton, 40.817,97 ton, dan 41.255,24 ton. Dimana hasil tersebut menunjukkan bahwa produksi kelapa mengalami peningkatan setiap tahunnya sekitar 1% dengan nilai MAPE sebesar 16,19% yang menunjukkan bahwa hasil peramalan tersebut termasuk dalam kriteria akurat.
Penerapan Algoritma Extreme Gradient Boosting dengan ADASYN untuk Klasifikasi Rumah Tangga Penerima Program Keluarga Harapan di Provinsi Sumatera Barat Susrifalah, Amelia; Vionanda, Dodi; Kurniawati, Yenni; Sulistiowati, Dwi
UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science Vol. 3 No. 2 (2025): UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science
Publisher : Departemen Statistika Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/ujsds/vol3-iss2/369

Abstract

Program Keluarga Harapan (PKH) is a form of social protection provided by the government to overcome poverty in Indonesia. However, challenges remain in accurately predicting eligible households. Therefore, a data-based classification method is needed to identify PKH recipients based on their factors. This research was conducted in West Sumatra Province using variables from the Data Terpadu Kesejahteraan Sosial (DTKS) variable group contained in SUSENAS 2024. Based on data from Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) of West Sumatera Province, there are 1.790 PKH recipient households and 9.810 non-recipient households, indicating a class imbalance. Considering the large amount of data and complex variables, PKH can be analyzed using the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm because of its ability to handle large-scale data and produce high classification performance. To address data imbalance, Adaptive Synthetic (ADASYN) was applied before analysis. The application of XGBoost with the scale_pos_weight parameter shows low classification performance, with sensitivity value of 12.3% and balanced accuracy of 55.2%. To overcome this, unbalanced data was handled using the ADASYN method. The application of XGBoost after data balancing with ADASYN showed significant performance improvement, with sensitivity value 80.4% and balanced accuracy 88.1%. In classifying PKH recipient households, the variables that make an important contribution are the age of the head of household, floor area, diploma of the head of household, floor material and number of household Members. This research shows that the combination of XGBoost and ADASYN is effective in overcoming data imbalance and improving PKH recipient classification performance.
Peramalan Total Nilai Ekspor Indonesia Menggunakan Metode Singular Spectrum Analisis Ronald Rinaldo; Yenni Kurniawati; Dony Permana; Dina Fitria
UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science Vol. 3 No. 2 (2025): UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science
Publisher : Departemen Statistika Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/ujsds/vol3-iss2/370

Abstract

Forecasting export data presents unique challenges due to seasonal fluctuations and complex global economic dynamics. Inaccurate forecasts may lead to misguided economic policies, particularly in the export sector, which plays a critical role in national economic growth. This study aims to forecast the total export value of two major sectors in Indonesia from January to December 2024 using the Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) method. Forecasting is essential in supporting economic policy planning and strategic decision-making. SSA is chosen for its ability to decompose time series data into interpretable components such as trend, seasonality, and noise. The forecasting model's performance is evaluated using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), which provides an intuitive accuracy interpretation in percentage terms. The optimal parameter for SSA was found at L=28L = 28L=28, yielding a MAPE of 16.63%, indicating good forecasting accuracy. The forecasted export values show that the highest export is expected in December 2024 (USD 39,578.67 million), and the lowest in January 2024 (USD 21,689.14 million). These findings suggest that SSA is effective in forecasting economic time series data, particularly Indonesia’s export values. This study contributes to the practical application of SSA in economics and serves as a reference for future research and policymakers in formulating export strategies.
Nonparametric Regression with Local Polynomial Kernel on Relationship Between Schooling Years and Unemployment Rate in Banten Miftahul Barokah, Bunga; Fadhilah Fitri; Chairina Wirdiastuti
UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science Vol. 3 No. 3 (2025): UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science
Publisher : Departemen Statistika Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/ujsds/vol3-iss3/372

Abstract

The Open Unemployment Rate (TPT) is a key indicator in assessing the economic performance of Banten Province. One of the factors suspected to influence TPT is education, which is measured by the average years of schooling. This study aims to analyze the relationship between the average years of schooling and TPT using the Local Polynomial Kernel Nonparametric Regression method for the period 2017–2024. This method was chosen for its flexibility in modeling nonlinear relationships without requiring strict assumptions about the data. The optimal bandwidth parameter for smoothing was determined using the Direct Plug-In (DPI) method through the dpill function in the R software. The results show that the nonparametric model has a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.2841, which is higher than that of the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) linear regression model, which only reached 0.1710. This indicates that the nonparametric approach is better at capturing the complex relationship between education and unemployment. However, the low R² values in both models indicate the presence of other factors that influence the unemployment rate, such as economic conditions, labor market structure, and education policy. Therefore, increasing the average years of schooling alone may not be sufficient to significantly reduce the unemployment rate. More comprehensive policies are needed, such as job skill enhancement, vocational training, and economic strategies focused on job creation. The findings of this study are expected to provide useful insights for policymakers in formulating more effective strategies to address unemployment in Banten Province.
Forecasting Consumer Price Index in Personal Care Sector in Bukittinggi Using SVR with Grid Search and Radial Basis Function Kernel Pane, khairunnisa; Fadhilah Fitri; Dina Fitria
UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science Vol. 3 No. 3 (2025): UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science
Publisher : Departemen Statistika Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/ujsds/vol3-iss3/373

Abstract

Inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), is vital for economic stability and policy making. In Bukittinggi, the Personal Care and Other Services sector shows notable CPI fluctuations, complicating accurate forecasting. This study uses Support Vector Regression (SVR) to predict monthly CPI data for this sector from 2020 to 2024. Data from Statistics Indonesia was normalized with Min-Max normalization to improve model accuracy and avoid scale distortion. Lag features were added to capture time dependencies, and data was split into training (80%) and testing (20%) sets. A linear SVR model was first applied but showed limited success due to the data’s non-linear nature. Therefore, the Radial Basis Function (RBF) kernel was used, with hyperparameters (C, sigma, epsilon, folds) optimized via Grid Search and cross-validation. The optimal settings (C=32, sigma=2, epsilon=0.1, k=10) yielded the lowest RMSE of 0.1099 in cross-validation and 0.0767 on testing. Results demonstrate that the RBF-SVR model effectively captures non-linear CPI patterns and outperforms the linear model. Evaluation metrics included RMSE, MSE, and MAE. The study concludes that SVR combined with Grid Search offers a robust forecasting method for sectors with complex CPI behavior, supporting local economic planning in Bukittinggi. Future research could investigate hybrid models and larger datasets to enhance prediction accuracy and adaptability to market changes.
Forecasting Inflation Rate in Indonesia Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Method Putri, Lathifa; Zilrahmi
UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science Vol. 3 No. 3 (2025): UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science
Publisher : Departemen Statistika Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/ujsds/vol3-iss3/377

Abstract

Inflasi merupakan salah satu indikator penting untuk menilai stabilitas ekonomi suatu negara. Peningkatan inflasi yang terus menerus akan memperlambat pertumbuhan ekonomi. Oleh karena itu, prakiraan tingkat inflasi yang akurat penting untuk perencanaan ekonomi jangka menengah hingga panjang. Penelitian ini dilakukan untuk meramalkan tingkat inflasi di Indonesia selama 12 periode mendatang, yaitu dari Januari 2025 hingga Desember 2025. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode ARIMA, karena model ARIMA bersifat fleksibel terhadap semua jenis pola data deret waktu, meskipun data tersebut bersifat non-stasioner. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa ARIMA (2,0,2) merupakan model terbaik dengan nilai akurasi MAPE sebesar 25,21%. Model ini dapat memprediksi tingkat inflasi yang stabil di Indonesia selama 12 periode mendatang, dengan rata-rata sebesar 1,861%. Hasil ini menunjukkan bahwa kenaikan harga umum barang dan jasa di Indonesia selama periode tersebut akan stabil tanpa fluktuasi, yang merupakan tanda positif bagi stabilitas makroekonomi dan daya beli masyarakat.

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