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Jurnal Gaussian

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Published by Universitas Diponegoro

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Jurnal Gaussian terbit 4 (empat) kali dalam setahun setiap kali periode wisuda. Jurnal ini memuat tulisan ilmiah tentang hasil-hasil penelitian, kajian ilmiah, analisis dan pemecahan permasalahan yang berkaitan dengan Statistika yang berasal dari skripsi mahasiswa S1 Departemen Statistika FSM UNDIP.

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Articles 733 Documents

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PENERAPAN IMPROVED GENERALIZED VARIANCE PADA PENGENDALIAN KUALITAS PAVING BLOCK SEGIENAM Nathasa Erdya Kristy; Mustafid Mustafid; Sudarno Sudarno
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 9, No 1 (2020): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

In quality assurance of hexagonal paving block products, quality control is needed so the products that produced are in accordance with the specified standards. Quality control carried out involves two interconnected quality characteristics, that is thickness and weight of hexagonal paving blocks, so multivariate control chart is used. Improved Generalized Variance control chart is a tool used to control process variability in multivariate manner. Variability needs to be controlled because of in a production process, sometimes there are variabilities that caused by engine problems, operator errors, and deffect in raw materials that affect the process. The purpose of this study is to apply Improved Generalized Variance control chart in controlling the quality of hexagonal paving block products and calculating the capability of production process to meet the standards. Based on the assumption of multivariate normal distribution test, it can be seen that the data of quality characteristics of hexagonal paving blocks have multivariate distribution. While based on the correlation test between variables it can be concluded that the characteristics of the quality of thickness and weight correlate with each other. The result of the control using these control chart shows that the process is statistically in control. The results of process capability analysis show that the production process has been running according to the standard because the process capability index value is generated using a weighting of 0.5 for each quality characteristic that is 1.01517. Keywords: Paving Block, Quality Control, Variability, Improved Generalized Variance, Process Capability Analysis

ANALISIS MULTIRESOLUSI WAVELET DENGAN TRANSFORMASI WAVELET DISKRIT BERBASIS GUI R (STUDI KASUS: INFLASI DI INDONESIA PADA PERIODE OKTOBER 2007-MEI 2018) Sania Anisa Farah; Suparti Suparti; Dwi Ispriyanti
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 9, No 2 (2020): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Lately, the wavelet applications are widely used in statistics, one of them is discrete wavelet transform (DWT) which is a non-parametric method for signal analysis, data compression, and time series analysis. As technology becomes more advanced, a software is necessary to support the statistical analysis by such method, one of them being the open source based R. It is often used in statistical computing with command line interface (CLI) which requires the R user to remember the names of syntaxes and functions. It becomes less effective when there are many related statistical analysis involved, so graphical user interface (GUI) is needed to access all of them easily. The testing of multiresolution analysis by DWT for Haar, Daublets, and Coiflets filters with levels 1-6 had been performed by using the inflation data in Indonesia during October 2007-May 2018 taken from Bank Indonesia website. The result shows that the sixth level of DWT gives the best estimation for each filters, and Daublets 20 is the best filter for overall estimation with MSE, MAPE, and MASE values are 0.05755, 3.40678, and 0.35343 respectively. The packages for GUI construction in R are wavelets and shiny. Based on its usage, the GUI is capable of processing the chosen analysis and showing the valid output.

IMPLEMENTASI JARINGAN SYARAF TIRUAN BACKPROPAGATION DENGAN ALGORITMA CONJUGATE GRADIENT UNTUK KLASIFIKASI KONDISI RUMAH (Studi Kasus di Kabupaten Cilacap Tahun 2018) Johanes Roisa Prabowo; Rukun Santoso; hasbi Yasin
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 9, No 1 (2020): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

House is one aspect of the welfare of society that must be met, because house is the main need for human life besides clothing and food. The condition of the house as a good shelter can be known from the structure and facilities of buildings. This research aims to analyze the classification of house conditions is livable or not livable. The method used is artificial neural networks (ANN). ANN is a system information processing that has characteristics similar to biological neural networks. In this research the optimization method used is the conjugate gradient algorithm. The data used are data of Survei Sosial Ekonomi Nasional (Susenas) March 2018 Kor Keterangan Perumahan for Cilacap Regency. The data is divided into training data and testing data with the proportion that gives the highest average accuracy is 90% for training data and 10% for testing data. The best architecture obtained a model consisting of 8 neurons in input layer, 10 neurons in hidden layer and 1 neuron in output layer. The activation function used are bipolar sigmoid in the hidden layer and binary sigmoid in the output layer. The results of the analysis showed that ANN works very well for classification on house conditions in Cilacap Regency with an average accuracy of 98.96% at the training stage and 97.58% at the testing stage.Keywords: House, Classification, Artificial Neural Networks, Conjugate Gradient

VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE STABILITY CONDITION CHECK UNTUK PEMODELAN DAN PREDIKSI SUMBER PENERIMAAN PABEAN BELAWAN Mia Anastasia Sinulingga; Di Asih I Maruddani; Abdul Hoyyi
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 9, No 2 (2020): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Customs Intermediate are an institution that is responsible for regulating the flow of export and import trade activities in the Customs Area with the revenue coming from import duties and export duties. The time series data from the customs acceptance component import dan export which have a relationship between variables. Vector Autoregressive is a statistical method used in predicting and evaluating interrelationships between variables. The purpose of this study is to obtain a model for predicting import and export by using the VAR model and detecting the stability of the model. Model requirements are said to be stable if all modulus values from roots characteristic of coefficient matrices ≤ 1 that the predicted results can be verified. The data is divided into in sample data starting from January 2010 to June 2018 and out sample data starts from July 2018 until December 2018. The results of data analysis in this study, the model obtained for prediction is the VAR model (4) and there is a direct relationship between both variables. The VAR (4) residual model fulfills the assumption of white noise, while the assumption of multivariate normality is not fulfilled. Based on out sample the value of MAPE for import variables 18.42%, export 12.94% shows the VAR model (4) has good predictive capabilities that can be used for predicting future periods. Predicted results on import show fluctuations during the period of January to December 2019 while in the export shows increase during the period of January to December 2019.

PENGENDAIAN MULTIVARIATE DENGAN DIGRAM KONTROL MEWMA ENGGUNAKAN METODE SIX SIGMA (STUDI KASUS PT FUMIRA SEMARANG TAHUN 2019) Puspita Ayu Utami; Mustafid Mustafid; Tatik Widiharih
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 9, No 1 (2020): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

As one of the biggest corrugation producing industries, PT Fumira Semarang is always required to fulfill customer needs by continuously improving their quality. Galvanized Steel is the raw material for the production of corrugation at PT Fumira Semarang. There are three important quality characteristics to be controlled in order that the results of galvanized steel production fit the standards to be manufactured as corrugation are waves, rust, and scratches. Six Sigma is a method for controlling quality. Six Sigma has focus on reducing defects, by standard 3,4 defects per one million opportunties. This research aims to identify the galvanized steel production process using Six Sigma method with MEWMA control chart and the capability of the process to fit the standards. Multivariate Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (MEWMA) control chart is a tool used to control multivariate process averages. The result of this research are MEWMA control chart with lambda 0.7 shows that the process is controlled statistically and The Sigma value for waves is 2,33, for rust 2,05, and for scratches 2,64. And the research reveals the galvanized steel production process has not fit to the standard because the process capabilty index is 0,2805. Keywords: Galvanized Steel, Quality Control, Six Sigma, Multivariate Exponentially Weighted Moving Average, Process Capability Analysis

PERAMALAN JUMLAH KUNJUNGAN WISATAWAN MANCANEGARA DI KEPULAUAN RIAU DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN MODEL FUNGSI TRANSFER Tamura Rolasnirohatta Siahaan; Rukun Santoso; Alan Prahutama
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 9, No 2 (2020): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Transfer function models is a data analysis model that combines time series and causal approach, in another words, transfer function models is a method that ilustrates that the predicted value in teh future is affected by the past value time series and based on one or more related time series. In this research, an analysis of the number of tourist arrival and rainfall in several regions in Kepulauan Riau from January 2013 until December 2017 was aimed at obtaining a transfer function model and forecasting the number of tourist arrival in several regions of the Kepulauan Riau for next periods. Based on the result of the analysis, rainfall in Tanjung Pinang does not affect the visit of tourist with the values of MAPE is 13,63494%. Rainfall in Batam also does not affect the visit of tourist with the values of MAPE is 7,977151%. While in Tanjung Balai Karimun, tourist arrivals was affected by rainfall with the values of MAPE is 10,32777%.

PEMODELAN REGRESI SEMIPARAMETRIK DENGAN PENDEKATAN DERET FOURIER (Studi Kasus: Pengaruh Indeks Dow Jones dan BI Rate Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan Laili Rahma Khairunnisa; Alan Prahutama; Rukun Santoso
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 9, No 1 (2020): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

The Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI) is a composite index all of types of shares listed on the stock exchange and their movements indicate conditions that occur in the capital market. CSPI is influenced by macroeconomic factors and foreign exchange index. Dow Jones Industrial Average has a linear relationship with CSPI and BI Rate has a repeated relationship with CSPI, so the method is used semiparametric regression with the Fourier series approach. Estimators in semiparametric regression with Fourier series approach were obtained by the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method. This study uses monthly data which is divided into in sample data and out sample data. Semiparametric regression modelling with Fourier series approach is done by determining the optimal K value which results in a minimum General Cross Validation (GCV) value. In this study, semiparametric regression model with Fourier series approach formed by the optimal K value is 13 and GCV is 2826122. The results of the evaluation of the accuracy of the model performance and forecasting obtained the coefficient of determination is 0,9226, Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) data in sample 3,8154% and data out sample is 8,4782% which shows that the model obtained has a very accurate performance.Keywords: Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI), Semiparametric Regression, Fourier Series, OLS, GCV

PEMODELAN JUB DAN BI RATE TERHADAP INFLASI DAN KURS RUPIAH MENGGUNAKAN REGRESI SEMIPARAMETRIK BIRESPON BERDASARKAN ESTIMATOR PENALIZED SPLINE Siti Fadhilla Femadiyanti; Suparti Suparti; Budi Warsito
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 9, No 2 (2020): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Some indicators of the Indonesian economy are inflation and the exchange rate of rupiah against US dollar. Inflation and the rupiah exchange rate are thought to be influenced by the money supply (JUB) and the BI Rate. The money supply has a nonparametric relationship pattern to inflation and the rupiah exchange rate, while the BI Rate has a parametric relationship pattern to inflation and the rupiah exchange rate. The right method for detecting the relationship between inflation and the exchange rate with JUB and BI Rate is birespon semiparametric regression with a splined penalized estimator. The semiparametric regression coefficient of birespon spline penalized is estimated using the Weighted Least square (WLS) method which is determined based on the degree of polynomials, the number and location of the optimal knot points, and the optimal lambda determined based on the minimum of Generalized Cross Validation (GCV). This research uses the R Program. Based on the results of the analysis, the best spline penalized birespon semiparametric regression model is located in the number of knots is 5 at the knot points of 5257,783; 6649,469; 8976,871; 11099,19 and 13535,51 found in the first degree of response is 1 and the second degree of response is 2 with an optimal lambda of 99,99. The results of the performance evaluation of the model produce value of is 99,9007%, meaning that the model's performance is very good for out samples of the data and the MAPE value of 2.89169% is less than 10% which means the model's performance is very good.

PENGELOMPOKAN PROVINSI-PROVINSI DI INDONESIA MENGGUNAKAN METODE WARD (StudiKasus: Produksi Tanaman Pangan di Indonesia Tahun 2018) Besya Salsabilla Azani Arif; Agus Rusgiyono; Abdul Hoyyi
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 9, No 1 (2020): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Cluster analysis is a technique for grouping objects or observations into homogeneous groups. Cluster analysis is divided into two methods, namely hierarchy and non-hierarchy. The hierarchy method generally involves a series of n-1 decisions (n is the number of observations) that combine observations into a tree-like structure or dendogram. Hierarchy is divided into two methods, namely agglomerative (concentration) and splitting (distribution). For non-hierarchical methods, the number of clusters can be determined by the researcher. Ward method is a hierarchical cluster analysis method that can maximize homogeneity in the cluster. The Sum-of-Square (SSE) formula is used in this method to minimize variations in the clusters that are formed. In this research, squared euclid distance is used to measure the similarity between object pairs. The data used in this study are secondary data on food crop production, namely rice, corn, soybeans, peanuts, green beans, sweet potatoes, and cassava in Indonesia 2018. To determine the cluster, the elbow method is used to form optimal clusters using WSS formula. Based on the analysis results, it was found that the optimal cluster is four clusters. The first cluster consists of 9 Province, the second cluster consists of 20 Province, the third cluster consists of 1 Province, the fourth cluster consists of 2 Province, and the fifth cluster consists of 2 Province.Keywords: Food Crop, Cluster Analysis, Ward Method, Squared Euclid, Elbow Method

GRAFIK PENGENDALI MULTIVARIATE EXPONENTIALLY WEIGHTED MOVING COVARIANCE MATRIX (MEWMC) PADA DATA SAMPEL ZAT KANDUNGAN BATU BARA (Studi Kasus : PT Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk. Tahun 2016) Sensiani Sensiani; Tatik Widiharih; Rita Rahmawati
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 9, No 1 (2020): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

The progress of industrial business in the midst of global competition increased rapidly. A businessman should have special treatment for their products to compete of market quality. The quality of product is an important factor in choosing a product or service, particularly for the costumers. In technological development, the factors of failure in the product can be minimized by Statistical Quality Control. Besides to reducing diversity in product characteristics, statistical quality control can increase business income. The data source of this research is sekunder sample data of coal products of PT Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk. with seven variables, the variables is Total Moisture (TM), Inherent Moisture (IM), Ash Content (ASH), Volatile Matter (VM), Fixed Carbon (FC), Total Sulfur (TS), and Calorific Value (CV). The analytical method is the controlling chart of Multivariate Exponentially Weighted Moving Covariance Matrix (MEWMC) which is one of the multivariate charts that serves to detect small shift in covariance matrix and the development of Multivariate Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (MEWMA) charts. Based on the results of the analysis, the MEWMA control chart is statistically controlled with a weighting value λ=0,2 while the MEWMC chart with λ=0,2 is not controlled statistically and detected small shift in covariance matrix . In a controlled process, the capability value of multivariate process is 0,83222 < 1 which means the process is not capable.Keywords: MEWMA control chart, MEWMC control chart, Process capability analysis.

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