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Dr. Tony Irawan, SE, M.App.Ec
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Editorial Office Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Department of Economics 2nd Floor of Faculty of Economics and Management Building Agatis Street, Campus of IPB Dramaga, Bogor 16680, West Java, Indonesia
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INDONESIA
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan
Published by Institut Pertanian Bogor
ISSN : 25282751     EISSN : 19799187     DOI : https://doi.org/10.29244/bilp
Core Subject :
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan receives a manuscript with some topics/issues of trade and trade-related issues including: (1) Domestic Trade and Consumer Protection (consumer and producer behaviour; inflation; price; logistics and distributions, trade facilities and infrastructure; trade services; subsidy; consumer protection; digital trade; commodity futures market; other related issues) (2) Foreign Trade and Trade Protection (export; import; export fnancing; product and market diversification; tariff and non tariff measures; trade borders; market intelligent; market access; trade security; other related issues) (3) International Trade Cooperation (bilateral, regional and multilateral agreement; trade services; bilateral, regional and multilateral negotiation)
Arjuna Subject : -
Articles 5 Documents
 1 
Competitive Dynamics and Factors Affecting Indonesian Black Tea Exports in The ASEAN Market Putra Irwandi; Ninda Novita; Aulia Adetya
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol. 19 No. 1 (2025): Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan
Publisher : IPB University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/bilp.19.1.30-46

Abstract

Indonesian black tea has a unique taste and quality, but its export dynamics in the ASEAN market are influenced by several factors, such as competition from other producing countries, quality comparisons, price fluctuations, and logistical challenges. This study examines the competitiveness of Indonesian black tea exports to ASEAN using panel data from 2010 to 2023. Data from Trademap with HS code 092030 for black tea and macroeconomic data from the World Bank were analyzed using Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) and Dynamic Revealed Comparative Advantage (DRCA). Additionally, a gravity model was used to assess the impact of economic and geographical variables on export volume. The results show fluctuating competitiveness, with a declining trend in recent years. DRCA analysis reveals a shift toward lower competitiveness compared to other tea-exporting countries. The gravity model shows that economic distance, inflation in other countries do not have a significant effect on Indonesia's export volume, while the GDP of other countries, population, and exchange rate of the destination country, and economic growth have a significant effect on export volume. The study suggests policy implications for expanding market share, improving product quality at the farm level, and strengthening international certifications to enhance competitiveness.
Identification and Mapping of Request-Offer Commodity Exports under the Indonesia–Sri Lanka Trade Cooperation Initiative (PTA) Hotsawadi; Widyastutik; Nuzilia
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol. 19 No. 1 (2025): Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan
Publisher : IPB University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/bilp.19.1.13-29

Abstract

Indonesia’s low ranking as an exporter to Sri Lanka indicates the need for a strategy that is more focused on improving the competitiveness of commodities, one of which is through the utilization of opportunities currently being initiated via bilateral trade cooperation schemes. This study aims to identify, map, and measure the export performance of request-offer commodities under the bilateral trade cooperation framework between Indonesia and Sri Lanka (PTA). The analytical methods used include export market share, the RCA index, the X-Model, EPD, the Frequency Index, and the Coverage Ratio of Non-Tariff Measures (NTMs). The results show that the export performance of the 20 initially proposed “request” commodities shifted from a “falling star” (55%) and “retreat” (45%) position to a “falling star” (5%) and “retreat” (95%) position from 2018 to 2022. From the perspective of the X-Model analysis, the market development performance of these requested commodities—which was 55% in the “potential market development” category and 45% in the “less potential market development” category—shifted to 100% in the “less potential market development” category from 2018 to 2022. The results of the analysis using the FR and CR approaches show that, collectively, 100 percent of Indonesia’s sixteen requested commodities are still subject to at least one NTM barrier imposed by Sri Lanka. Nevertheless, commodities originating from Indonesia still tend to have higher competitive potential compared to products from competing countries.
The Impact of Industrial Growth on the Manufacturing Trade Balance: An Aggregate and Industry-Level Analysis Febrini Khairunnisa; Hermanto Siregar; Widyastutik
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol. 19 No. 1 (2025): Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan
Publisher : IPB University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/bilp.19.1.68-80

Abstract

This study analyzes the impact of industrial growth—measured using the Industrial Production Index (IPI)—on Indonesia’s manufacturing trade balance during the 2014–2024 period, using both aggregate and sectoral approaches. An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was used, incorporating the wholesale price index, the real effective exchange rate, and world oil prices as control variables, as well as two structural breaks: the COVID-19 pandemic and the foreign exchange policy on export proceeds. The results indicate significant heterogeneity across industries. At the aggregate level, an increase in the IPI tends to worsen the trade balance due to dependence on imported inputs, while in the food industry, an improvement occurs alongside industrial expansion. The wholesale price index supports an improvement in the aggregate trade balance but has a negative impact on the food sector, whereas the real effective exchange rate only improves the trade balance in the long run, confirming the Marshall–Lerner condition. The COVID-19 pandemic was associated with a temporary improvement in the trade balance due to a decline in imports.
Analysis of the Impact of KITE Facilities and Macroeconomic Variables on Export Performance Evan Harlan; Masruri Muchtar
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol. 19 No. 1 (2025): Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan
Publisher : IPB University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/bilp.19.1.1-12

Abstract

One of the government’s measures to boost exports in Indonesia is the provision of the Import Facilitation for Export (KITE) program. This study aims to fill a research gap, as previous studies have not distinguished between the two types of KITE facilities: KITE Exemption and KITE Refund. This study focuses on the KITE Refund facility because its settlement mechanism does not require businesses to export. The study aims to analyze the effects of the KITE facility, import value, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflation, and exchange rates on companies’ export performance. This study employs panel data regression analysis using the Panel-Corrected Standard Errors (PCSE) model. The data consist of quarterly data from 120 companies covering the period from 2018 to 2023. The results indicate that the independent variables have a significant simultaneous effect on the dependent variable. Partially, the KITE facility, import value, and GDP each have a positive effect on export value. Meanwhile, inflation and the exchange rate have no effect on export value. The implication is that the government can continue and expand the provision of the KITE facility, continue infrastructure development and equitable distribution to improve logistics cost efficiency, and formulate integrated fiscal and monetary policies in an effort to increase exports.
The Impact of Indonesian Textile Imports on Employment: Predictive Analysis with Google Trends and News Sentiment: Politeknik Statistika STIS Dwi Intan Sulistiana; Erna Nurmawati
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol. 19 No. 1 (2025): Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan
Publisher : IPB University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/bilp.19.1.47-67

Abstract

The textile and textile products (TTP) industry in Indonesia is one of the import-dependent sectors. The increase in imports of the textile industry has the potential to reduce the number of workers. This study aims to identify Harmonized System (HS) codes of TTP import that correlate with the number of workers and to predict imports for those HS codes.  This research employs conventional statistical methods, including Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Seasonal ARIMA, ARIMA with Exogenous (ARIMAX), SARIMAX, and Holt-Winters, as well as machine learning methods such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and ARIMA-LSTM hybrid models. The best model is the ARIMAX model, which has the lowest Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). This model utilizes the most influential variables: the rupiah exchange rate, textile production index, percentage of news articles with positive sentiment, and Google Trends Index. This study also reveals that the volume of textile imports, as classified under HS codes 56, 60, and 63, is negatively correlated with the number of workers in the textile sector. Therefore, the government should consider import control policies for this product group. This step needs to be accompanied by an increase in the production capacity and competitiveness of the domestic textile industry. Additionally, the use of Google Trends data and news sentiment can serve as an early warning system to predict import surges more quickly and accurately.

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