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All Journal Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika Indonesian Journal of Environment and Disaster Theta: Journal of Statistics
Riska Mulyani
Universitas Syiah Kuala
Earth & Planetary Sciences Environmental Science Mathematics

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Cluster Analysis of District/City Welfare in Aceh Province: An Application of the K-Means Method Alifah Alyana; Hasya Zayyan Haziqah; Rini Safariani; Riska Mulyani; Wanda Surianto
Theta: Journal of Statistics Vol 1, No 2 (2025): Available Online in September 2025
Publisher : Faculty of Engineering, Univesitas Sultan Ageng Tirtayasa

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.62870/tjs.v1i2.35948

Abstract

Community well-being is a critical determinant of regional development success, particularly in Aceh Province, which exhibits unique social and economic characteristics. This study aims to classify districts and municipalities in Aceh Province based on welfare indicators using the K-Means Clustering method. The analysis employed secondary data from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) for 2023, covering 23 districts/municipalities and 10 indicators: population density, labor force size, labor force participation rate, open unemployment rate, average years of schooling, life expectancy, per capita expenditure, poverty rate, GRDP distribution, and gender development index. The findings reveal that the optimal number of clusters is two. The first cluster comprises regions with relatively lower welfare indicators, while the second cluster consists of regions with higher levels of socio-economic development but facing internal disparities. The silhouette coefficient of 0.309 and the Davies-Bouldin Index (DBI) of 1.065 indicate that the model is reasonably effective in capturing welfare differences across regions. These results provide valuable insights for formulating more targeted and efficient regional development policies
Analisis Risiko Cuaca Ekstrem di Provinsi Aceh Menggunakan Pendekatan Volatilitas, Value at Risk (VaR), dan Extreme Value Theory (EVT) Miftahuddin; Novi Puspita; Riska Mulyani; Sufia Humaira; Newton
Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika Vol. 13 No. 1 (2026)
Publisher : Universitas Ahmad Dahlan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.26555/jim.v13i1.31583

Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis tingkat risiko cuaca ekstrem pada 23 kabupaten/kota di Provinsi Aceh dengan menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif berbasis konsep aktuaria, meliputi volatilitas dan Value at Risk (VaR). Cuaca ekstrem menjadi ancaman signifikan bagi Aceh karena letak geografisnya yang dipengaruhi angin muson, kondisi pesisir, serta topografi yang beragam. Data yang digunakan berupa skor indeks risiko cuaca ekstrem yang kemudian dianalisis melalui tahapan perhitungan volatilitas menggunakan standar deviasi, estimasi VaR dengan metode kuantil historis pada tingkat kepercayaan 95%, serta klasifikasi risiko kategorikal berdasarkan nilai ambang yang sesuai dengan karakteristik data. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa 15 wilayah berada pada kategori risiko tinggi dan 8 wilayah berada pada kategori risiko sedang, dengan skor tertinggi dimiliki Aceh Besar (36,41) dan terendah Kota Sabang (25,3). Nilai volatilitas sebesar 3,21 mengindikasikan adanya fluktuasi risiko yang moderat antar wilayah. Estimasi VaR sebesar 26,27 menunjukkan batas minimum risiko pada tingkat kepercayaan 95%. Temuan ini memperlihatkan bahwa wilayah pesisir dan dataran rendah memiliki tingkat kerentanan lebih tinggi dibanding wilayah pegunungan. Secara keseluruhan, analisis volatilitas dan VaR terbukti efektif sebagai alat ukur kuantitatif untuk mendukung prioritas mitigasi bencana dan perencanaan adaptasi iklim berbasis data di Provinsi Aceh.
ANALISIS KORESPONDENSI PADA POLA HUBUNGAN ANTARA JENIS BENCANA DAN STATUS KORBAN DI SUMATERA TAHUN 2024 Muhammad Al-Farisy; Riska Mulyani; M. Riswan; Tarisa Humaira; Lathifah Putri Adani
INDONESIAN JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENT AND DISASTER Vol. 5 No. 1 (2026): Indonesian Journal of Environment and Disaster
Publisher : Disaster Research Center, Universitas Sebelas Maret, Surakarta, Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20961/ijed.v5i1.2670

Abstract

CORRESPONDENCE ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP PATTERN BETWEEN DISASTER TYPES AND VICTIM STATUS IN SUMATERA IN 2024 This study analyzes the relationship between provinces, types of disasters, and types of disaster victims in 10 provinces on Sumatra Island using correspondence analysis. The data includes seven disaster types and five victim categories from Aceh, North Sumatra, West Sumatra, Riau, Riau Islands, Jambi, Bengkulu, South Sumatra, Bangka Belitung Islands, and Lampung. Descriptive results show floods as the most frequent disaster, while the "suffering victims" category appears most often. The chi-square test yields a p-value < 2.2e-16, indicating significant relationships between all variable combinations. The correspondence plot reveals distinct patterns: Lampung often faces extreme weather and earthquakes; West Sumatra and Riau are prone to landslides; Riau Islands and Aceh to forest and land fires; and Bengkulu to drought. Victim distribution also varies, West Sumatra reports more displaced victims, while most other provinces have predominantly suffered victims. In terms of disaster impacts, landslides are linked to fatalities, forest and land fires to displacement, and floods to suffering and missing victims. These findings highlight the interconnectedness of regions, disaster types, and victim impacts, offering important insights for disaster risk management and mitigation efforts across Sumatra.
Co-Authors Alifah Alyana Hasya Zayyan Haziqah Lathifah Putri Adani Miftahuddin Muhammad Al-Farisy Newton Novi Puspita Rini Safariani Riswan, M Sufia Humaira Tarisa Humaira Wanda Surianto