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All Journal Abdimas Langkanae Journal of Mathematics, Computation and Statistics (JMATHCOS)
Rika Saniarti
Universitas Negeri Makassar
Religion Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Arts Humanities Education Environmental Science Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Mathematics Other

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Comparison of Bayesian Spatial Leroux CAR Models with Poisson and Binomial Likelihoods for Modeling Stunting Cases Rika Saniarti; Aswi Aswi
Journal of Mathematics, Computations and Statistics Vol. 9 No. 2 (2026): Volume 09 Issue 02 (June 2026)
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/Jmathcos12090

Abstract

Stunting remains a chronic nutritional problem requiring precise spatial mapping to support effective policy interventions in East Java, Indonesia. Spatial disease mapping commonly applies the Poisson distribution with Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) effects; however, the Poisson distribution is sensitive to overdispersion. Alternatively, the Bayesian Spatial CAR model with a Binomial likelihood may offer a better framework, yet empirical comparisons remain limited. This study compares the performance of Bayesian Spatial Leroux CAR models with Poisson and Binomial likelihoods in modeling stunting cases and identifies associated factors. The data include stunting cases across 38 districts in East Java (2024) and predictors: low birth weight (LBW), prematurity, exclusive breastfeeding, complete basic immunization (CBI), pneumonia, and diarrhea. Performance was evaluated using the Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) and the Watanabe–Akaike Information Criterion (WAIC). Results indicate significant spatial dependence. The Bayesian Spatial Leroux CAR model with a binomial likelihood outperforms the Poisson-based model. LBW, exclusive breastfeeding, CBI, pneumonia, and diarrhea are significantly associated with stunting. Kediri Regency exhibits the highest relative risk (RR), followed by Probolinggo Regency and Batu City, while Kediri City and Ponorogo Regency show the lowest RR
Pelatihan Visualisasi Statistik Interaktif Menggunakan GeoGebra untuk Meningkatkan Pemahaman Konsep Statistika Siswa SMAN 4 Gowa Ansari Saleh Ahmar; Rahmat Hidayat; Muh. Imam Shadiq; Rika Saniarti; Indy Pratiwi HR; Fadhil Rochbini
Abdimas Langkanae Vol. 6 No. 2 (2026)
Publisher : Pustaka Digital Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.53769/jpm.v6i2.873

Abstract

Siswa SMAN 4 Gowa mengalami kesulitan menafsirkan ukuran pemusatan, simpangan baku, dan distribusi normal secara kontekstual. Kegiatan ini bertujuan meningkatkan pemahaman konseptual statistika siswa melalui pelatihan visualisasi interaktif menggunakan GeoGebra, dengan guru matematika sebagai mitra. Program meliputi sosialisasi, pelatihan konseptual dan praktik, proyek mini berbasis data, pendampingan guru, dan penyerahan modul. Evaluasi menggunakan desain satu kelompok tes awal–tes akhir terhadap 49 siswa dengan tes pemahaman konsep, observasi berbasis rubrik, dan kuesioner; data tes dianalisis dengan uji-t berpasangan. Rerata skor naik dari 70,51 menjadi 79,67 (selisih 9,16 poin; t(48) = 9,534; p < 0,001), dan 47 dari 49 siswa  mampu membuat histogram serta menjalankan simulasi distribusi normal secara mandiri sesudah pelatihan. Hasil ini menunjukkan perubahan skor jangka pendek, bukan bukti kausal keunggulan GeoGebra atas pembelajaran konvensional. Modul yang diserahkan merupakan bekal keberlanjutan yang penggunaannya masih perlu dipantau.
Co-Authors Ahmar, Ansari Saleh Aswi, Aswi Fadhil Rochbini Indy Pratiwi HR Muh. Imam Shadiq Rahmat Hidayat