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All Journal Yayasan Cita Cendikiawan Al Khwarizmi Engineering Science Letter
Juliana Damayanti Manurung
Universitas Mikroskil
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Forecasting Rice Price Volatility Utilizing BiLSTM-SHAP to Ensure National Food Stability Juliana Damayanti Manurung; Nadya Sikana; Fandi Presly Simamora; Zoni Zikro Manurung
Engineering Science Letter Vol. 4 No. 03 (2025): Engineering Science Letter
Publisher : The Indonesian Institute of Science and Technology Research

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.56741/IISTR.esl.001360

Abstract

Rice price volatility in Indonesia remains a persistent economic issue, partly driven by climate variability and fluctuations in national rice production, prompting the government to resort to substantial annual imports. However, the extent to which domestic production factors and weather conditions influence future rice prices has not been quantitatively evaluated. This study aims to forecast short-term rice prices in Indonesia by integrating multiple time-series features, including rice prices, harvested area, paddy production, and weather features, using a Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM) network. Daily data from 2013 to 2024 were collected from the National Statistics Agency, Food Price Panel, and the Meteorology and Climatology Agency. Chronological split was applied for training, validation, and testing to preserve temporal dependency. The optimal model predicts rice prices seven days ahead using 256 hidden units, achieving MAE of 128.84 IDR, RMSE of 157.98 IDR, and R² of 0.694. SHAP analysis shows that historical rice prices have the strongest contribution with a SHAP value of 0.969652, significantly higher compared to other features. The results demonstrate that integrating agricultural and climatic inputs improves predictive performance while providing interpretable insights into price-forming factors.
Peningkatan Kemampuan Berpikir Logis Melalui Pelatihan Python pada SMAS Tri Ratna Sibolga: Evaluasi Pre-Post Test Felix Felix; Ronsen Purba; Heru Kurniawan; Tanti; Juliana Damayanti Manurung
Dedikasi Sains dan Teknologi (DST) Vol. 5 No. 2 (2025): Artikel Pengabdian Nopember 2025
Publisher : Information Technology and Science (ITScience)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47709/dst.v5i2.7018

Abstract

Kemampuan berpikir logis merupakan keterampilan penting dalam mendukung proses pemecahan masalah, pengambilan keputusan, dan pemahaman konsep mata pelajaran. Namun, sistem pembelajaran di sekolah masih banyak menekankan metode hafalan, yang menyebabkan siswa kurang terlatih dalam berpikir kritis dan analitis. Oleh karena itu, kegiatan Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat ini dilakukan dengan tujuan untuk memperkuat kemampuan berpikir logis siswa melalui pelatihan dasar pemrograman Python. Kegiatan ini dilaksanakan di SMAS Tri Ratna Sibolga dan melibatkan siswa kelas XII IPA 33 orang dan XII IPS 29 orang sebagai peserta. Materi pelatihan mencakup pengenalan logika pemrograman, struktur algoritma sederhana, serta latihan menyusun solusi dari studi kasus menggunakan pendekatan logis. Kegiatan berlangsung selama dua hari dan disampaikan melalui metode ceramah, diskusi, dan latihan berbasis konsep pemrograman. Pelaksanaan dimulai dengan pre-test untuk mengukur pemahaman awal siswa, kemudian dilanjutkan dengan penyampaian materi, praktik, dan post-test untuk mengevaluasi hasil. Hasil kegiatan menunjukkan adanya peningkatan skor rata-rata peserta baik dalam aspek pemahaman logika pemrograman sebesar 5,83% dan kemampuan logika dasar sebesar 28,37%. Selain itu, siswa menunjukkan minat yang tinggi dalam mengikuti pelatihan dan berpartisipasi aktif selama kegiatan berlangsung berupa pengisian post test dan test yang lengkap mencapai 74,19%. Kegiatan ini tidak hanya memberikan manfaat bagi siswa, tetapi juga mempererat kerja sama antara universitas dan sekolah mitra. Secara keseluruhan, kegiatan ini berhasil mencapai tujuannya dan memberikan kontribusi positif dalam pengembangan keterampilan berpikir logis siswa di era digital.
Co-Authors Fandi Presly Simamora Felix Heru Kurniawan Nadya Sikana Ronsen Purba Tanti Zoni Zikro Manurung