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All Journal Jurnal Penelitian Pendidikan Indonesia
Serly S B Sihira
Prodi Ilmu Administrasi Negara. STISIPOL Mujahidin
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Machine learning–based evaluation of village fund management: enhancing efficiency and accountability Sri Yanti U M Armin; Serly S B Sihira
JPPI (Jurnal Penelitian Pendidikan Indonesia) Vol. 12 No. 1 (2026): JPPI (Jurnal Penelitian Pendidikan Indonesia)
Publisher : Indonesian Institute for Counseling, Education and Theraphy (IICET)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29210/020266909

Abstract

This study aimed to develop and validate a machine learning–based governance analytics framework for evaluating the efficiency and accountability of Village Fund Allocation (ADD) management. A quantitative explanatory design was employed using panel data from 83 villages in Kabupaten Buol during 2022–2024, comprising 249 village-year observations. Financial and governance indicators were integrated into Random Forest regression and classification models using grouped cross-validation. The regression model achieved a Mean Absolute Error of 7.8% and an R² of 0.82, while the classification model attained an Accuracy of 0.87 and an ROC-AUC of 0.91. Budget deviation, reporting timeliness, transparency, and managerial capacity emerged as the principal determinants of efficiency. The findings demonstrate that governance quality plays a more important role than fiscal magnitude in improving village fund efficiency and support the use of machine learning for risk-based fiscal supervision.
Co-Authors Sri Yanti U M Armin