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Septri Anisa
Politeknik Negeri Medan
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Trade Balance Dynamics: The Role of GDP Growth and Exchange Rate in Indonesia – United States Trade Relations (2000-2023) Debora Silvia Hutagalung; Fransisco Mezgion Hutauruk; Artha Putri Br Karo; Septri Anisa; Andreas Panjaitan
Economic: Journal Economic and Business Vol. 4 No. 4 (2025): ECONOMIC: Journal Economic and Business
Publisher : Lembaga Riset Mutiara Akbar (LARISMA)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.56495/ejeb.v4i4.1299

Abstract

This study analyzes the impact of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and exchange rate fluctuations on the dynamics of the Indonesia-United States trade balance between 2000 and 2023. Applying quantitative analysis methods through multiple linear regression, this study utilizes secondary data from institutions such as Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Bank Indonesia, and the World Bank. Key findings indicate that the exchange rate significantly influences the trade balance, while GDP growth does not show a statistically significant effect. Simultaneously, these two variables make a significant contribution, explaining 79.4% of the variation in the trade balance. The study period recorded a shift in the trade balance from a deficit (2000–2014) to a sustained surplus (2015–2023), with a peak surplus recorded at $16.568 billion in 2022. This conclusion emphasizes the crucial role of the exchange rate in strengthening export competitiveness, in contrast to GDP growth, which does not directly shape trade patterns. Policy recommendations include diversifying traded commodities and developing non-traditional export sectors to maintain a performance surplus.
Resilience of Indonesia’s Trade Balance to Short-Term Exchange Rate and Inflation Dynamics Andreas Panjaitan; Suny Sabila; Septri Anisa; Debora Silvia Hutagalung; Artha Putri Br Karo
Economic: Journal Economic and Business Vol. 4 No. 4 (2025): ECONOMIC: Journal Economic and Business
Publisher : Lembaga Riset Mutiara Akbar (LARISMA)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.56495/ejeb.v4i4.1300

Abstract

Indonesia's trade balance is often considered vulnerable to exchange rate fluctuations and inflation, but in reality, the period from January 2023 to December 2024 showed a surprising pattern. This study uses a quantitative approach with multiple linear regression on monthly data from Bank Indonesia and Statistics Indonesia to examine the short-term effects of the exchange rate and inflation. The results show that neither is significantly affected. Despite a moderate depreciation of the rupiah and a decline in inflation to its lowest level in history, the trade balance remains in surplus. This finding challenges the common assumption that short-term macroeconomic fluctuations determine trade performance and reveals that structural external factors such as global commodity prices and trading partner demand play a more dominant role. This study emphasizes the need for innovative sector-based trade strategies beyond conventional monetary instruments to maintain external stability.
The effect of exchange rates and interest rates on Indonesia's international trade performance during 2015–2024 Artha Putri Br Karo; Debora Silvia Hutagalung; Septri Anisa; Andreas Panjaitan
Economic: Journal Economic and Business Vol. 5 No. 2 (2026): ECONOMIC: Journal Economic and Business
Publisher : Lembaga Riset Mutiara Akbar (LARISMA)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.56495/ejeb.v5i2.1547

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between exchange rates and interest rates on a country's foreign trade performance. Exchange rate movements influence the price competitiveness of exported and imported goods, while changes in interest rates impact capital flows and the stability of the national currency. This study applies quantitative methods using secondary data obtained from Indonesian government financial reports, international trade statistics, and monetary indicators for the period 2015 to 2024. The analysis shows that exchange rate depreciation generally encourages exports but suppresses imports. Meanwhile, interest rate increases have varying impacts, depending on market responses, particularly from investors and domestic consumers. Therefore, exchange rate stability and the implementation of appropriate interest rate policies are strategic factors in supporting the performance of the international trade sector.
The impact of money supply and interest rates on the rupiah exchange rate in Indonesia (2015–2024) Septri Anisa; Andreas Panjaitan; Artha Putri Br Karo; Debora Silvia Hutagalung
Economic: Journal Economic and Business Vol. 5 No. 2 (2026): ECONOMIC: Journal Economic and Business
Publisher : Lembaga Riset Mutiara Akbar (LARISMA)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.56495/ejeb.v5i2.1548

Abstract

Fluctuations in the rupiah exchange rate reflect the dynamics of macroeconomic conditions and monetary policy responses to domestic and global pressures. This study aims to analyze the influence of the money supply and interest rates on the rupiah exchange rate from 2015 to 2024. A quantitative approach was used, utilizing annual time series data and linear regression analysis to identify the relationship between variables. The results indicate that the money supply has a positive and significant effect on the exchange rate, reflecting that increases in domestic liquidity are followed by changes in the exchange rate. Conversely, interest rates do not show a statistically significant effect. This finding confirms that liquidity plays a more dominant role than interest rates in influencing the exchange rate. Therefore, controlling the money supply is a crucial aspect in maintaining exchange rate stability.
Peningkatan Kapasitas Partisipatif Masyarakat dalam Pengawasan Pemilu Berkelanjutan: Kolaborasi Bersama Bawaslu Provinsi Sumatera Utara Septri Anisa; Harris Nasution; Sulthan Jiyad Muqsith; Roby Hadi Putra; Khalila Husnasari
Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat dan Desa Volume 3, Nomor 1, Juli 2025
Publisher : Politeknik Negeri Medan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.51510/passa.v3i1.2491

Abstract

Penelitian ini dilatarbelakangi oleh kenyataan bahwa Indonesia masih menghadapi sejumlah tantangan dalam pengawasan pemilu, terutama terkait dengan rendahnya partisipasi masyarakat dalam pengawasan jalannya pemilu. Kegiatan ini bertujuan untuk meningkatkan partisipasi masyarakat dalam Pengawasan Pemilu Berkelanjutan. Program pengabdian masyarakat ini berfokus pada pemberdayaan masyarakat guna meningkatkan pengetahuan, keterampilan, dan kesadaran mereka untuk terlibat aktif dalam pengawasan pemilu. Pendekatan yang diterapkan dalam program ini adalah metode partisipatif yang meliputi pelatihan intensif, sosialisasi, dan pendampingan langsung kepada masyarakat mengenai mekanisme pengawasan pemilu. Pengabdian ini menggunakan Metode Partisipatory Action Research. Hasil yang diperoleh dari pengabdian ini menunjukkan adanya perubahan pengetahuan dan kemampuan dalam partisipasi masyarakat, baik dari sisi pemahaman tentang regulasi pemilu, keterampilan dalam melakukan pengawasan, serta kesadaran terhadap pentingnya keberlanjutan dalam proses demokrasi. Melalui kolaborasi antara Bawaslu dan masyarakat, program ini mampu menciptakan pengawasan yang lebih transparan dan partisipatif, sekaligus memperkuat demokrasi yang berkelanjutan di tingkat lokal. Oleh karena itu, program ini dapat menjadi model bagi penguatan pengawasan pemilu di daerah lain di Indonesia.
Co-Authors Andreas Panjaitan Artha Putri Br Karo Fransisco Mezgion Hutauruk Harris Nasution Hutagalung, Debora Silvia Khalila Husnasari Roby Hadi Putra Sulthan Jiyad Muqsith Suny Sabila