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All Journal Economic: Journal Economic and Business
Hutagalung, Debora Silvia
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Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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Trade Balance Dynamics: The Role of GDP Growth and Exchange Rate in Indonesia – United States Trade Relations (2000-2023) Hutagalung, Debora Silvia; Hutauruk, Fransisco Mezgion; Karo, Artha Putri Br; Anisa, Septri; Panjaitan, Andreas
Economic: Journal Economic and Business Vol. 4 No. 4 (2025): ECONOMIC: Journal Economic and Business
Publisher : Lembaga Riset Mutiara Akbar (LARISMA)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.56495/ejeb.v4i4.1299

Abstract

This study analyzes the impact of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and exchange rate fluctuations on the dynamics of the Indonesia-United States trade balance between 2000 and 2023. Applying quantitative analysis methods through multiple linear regression, this study utilizes secondary data from institutions such as Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Bank Indonesia, and the World Bank. Key findings indicate that the exchange rate significantly influences the trade balance, while GDP growth does not show a statistically significant effect. Simultaneously, these two variables make a significant contribution, explaining 79.4% of the variation in the trade balance. The study period recorded a shift in the trade balance from a deficit (2000–2014) to a sustained surplus (2015–2023), with a peak surplus recorded at $16.568 billion in 2022. This conclusion emphasizes the crucial role of the exchange rate in strengthening export competitiveness, in contrast to GDP growth, which does not directly shape trade patterns. Policy recommendations include diversifying traded commodities and developing non-traditional export sectors to maintain a performance surplus.
Resilience of Indonesia’s Trade Balance to Short-Term Exchange Rate and Inflation Dynamics Panjaitan, Andreas; Sabila, Suny; Anisa, Septri; Hutagalung, Debora Silvia; Karo, Artha Putri Br
Economic: Journal Economic and Business Vol. 4 No. 4 (2025): ECONOMIC: Journal Economic and Business
Publisher : Lembaga Riset Mutiara Akbar (LARISMA)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.56495/ejeb.v4i4.1300

Abstract

Indonesia's trade balance is often considered vulnerable to exchange rate fluctuations and inflation, but in reality, the period from January 2023 to December 2024 showed a surprising pattern. This study uses a quantitative approach with multiple linear regression on monthly data from Bank Indonesia and Statistics Indonesia to examine the short-term effects of the exchange rate and inflation. The results show that neither is significantly affected. Despite a moderate depreciation of the rupiah and a decline in inflation to its lowest level in history, the trade balance remains in surplus. This finding challenges the common assumption that short-term macroeconomic fluctuations determine trade performance and reveals that structural external factors such as global commodity prices and trading partner demand play a more dominant role. This study emphasizes the need for innovative sector-based trade strategies beyond conventional monetary instruments to maintain external stability.
Co-Authors Andreas Panjaitan, Andreas Anisa, Septri Hutauruk, Fransisco Mezgion Karo, Artha Putri Br Sabila, Suny