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All Journal Specta Journal of Technology Jurnal Forum Analisis Statistik Jurnal Pendidikan dan Sosial Humaniora
Eli Zulkatri
Institut Teknologi Kalimantan
Humanities Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Environmental Science

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Indonesian Mortality-Based Dual Purpose Life Insurance Premium Model with Multiple Decrement and Interest Rate Sensitivity Aris Pransisco Siringo Ringo; Eli Zulkatri; Ahmad Rhandy Irsandha; Brayen Endo Raldie; Novia Ramadhany Rumengan; Natalie Mawar Desember Desember; Beby Griselda Putri
SPECTA Journal of Technology Vol. 10 No. 1 (2026): Specta Journal of Technology
Publisher : LPPM ITK

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35718/specta.v10i1.8481947

Abstract

Endowment life insurance is a product that provides benefits both upon the insured's death and while they remain alive until the end of the contract period. Determining premiums for this product requires a model that can capture multiple types of risk, making the multiple-decrement approach relevant. This study aims to calculate dual-purpose life insurance premiums by considering two causes of termination, namely death and inability to pay (lapse), using Indonesia's TMI 2023 mortality data, the probability of default from the OJK 2025 report, and interest rate sensitivity scenarios. The research methods include compiling life expectancy and active-payment probability tables, determining discount factors based on a deterministic interest rate model across three scenarios (pessimistic, realistic, optimistic), and calculating the present value of benefits and annual premiums for two decrement cases. The results show that premiums are highly sensitive to interest rates. Lower interest rates result in higher premiums, while higher interest rates reduce premiums according to the discount principle. In Case 1 (death) and Case 2 (default), different premium values are obtained due to variations in the decrement probabilities of each risk. Overall, the multiple decrement model proved to provide more accurate calculation results that are in line with the actual risk conditions in Indonesia. This study also identified potential developments by incorporating a stochastic interest rate model and adding other types of decrements to support more comprehensive premium setting for the insurance industry.
Analisis Dinamika Kasus Baru HIV/AIDS di Kalimantan Timur Menggunakan Regresi Binomial Negatif Eli Zulkatri; Lili Hernawati; Yumna Aqila
Jurnal Forum Analisis Statistik Vol. 6 No. 1 (2026): Jurnal Forum Analisis Statistik (FORMASI)
Publisher : Badan Pusat Statistik Provinsi Kalimantan Barat

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.57059/formasi.v6i1.145

Abstract

Kasus HIV/AIDS masih menjadi persoalan kesehatan masyarakat yang perlu dianalisis tidak hanya dari sisi jumlah kasus, tetapi juga dari pola perubahannya antarwaktu dan antarwilayah. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis dinamika kasus baru HIV/AIDS di Provinsi Kalimantan Timur serta menguji hubungan antara indikator sosial-ekonomi dan jumlah kasus baru HIV/AIDS. Data yang digunakan merupakan data panel 10 kabupaten/kota selama periode 2022 sampai 2025, sehingga diperoleh 40 observasi. Variabel respons adalah jumlah kasus baru HIV/AIDS, sedangkan variabel penjelas meliputi kepadatan penduduk, persentase penduduk miskin, tingkat pengangguran terbuka, dan indikator tahun. Analisis dilakukan menggunakan regresi Poisson dan regresi Binomial Negatif. Hasil deskriptif menunjukkan bahwa total kasus baru HIV/AIDS menurun dari 453 kasus pada tahun 2022 menjadi 297 kasus pada tahun 2025, tetapi masih terkonsentrasi pada Kota Samarinda, Kota Balikpapan, dan Kutai Kartanegara. Model Poisson menunjukkan overdispersi dengan deviance/df sebesar 29,6335 dan Pearson/df sebesar 39,0681. Regresi Binomial Negatif memberikan kecocokan model yang lebih baik dengan AIC sebesar 359,5597, lebih rendah dibandingkan model Poisson sebesar 1.168,6176. Hasil model menunjukkan bahwa tingkat pengangguran terbuka berasosiasi positif dan signifikan dengan jumlah kasus baru HIV/AIDS dengan IRR sebesar 1,5052. Sementara itu, kepadatan penduduk, persentase penduduk miskin, dan indikator tahun belum signifikan secara statistik. Temuan ini menunjukkan pentingnya mempertimbangkan indikator ketenagakerjaan dan prioritas wilayah dalam pengendalian HIV/AIDS di Kalimantan Timur.
Designing a Revenue Blueprint for JKN: A Hybrid Time-Series and AI Forecasting Approach: 257 - 268 Nadya Haryanto; Aura Nabil Arsy; Mila Fitria Sari; Ahmad Tijani Noor; Eli Zulkatri
SPECTA Journal of Technology Vol. 10 No. 2 (2026): Specta Journal of Technology
Publisher : LPPM ITK

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35718/specta.v10i2.8481933

Abstract

Indonesia’s National Health Insurance (JKN) system faces significant sustainability challenges driven by regional economic heterogeneity and fluctuating payment compliance, particularly within the informal sector. Traditional linear forecasting models often fail to capture the complex, nonlinear interactions between revenue and broader macroeconomic drivers. This study aims to propose a Hybrid Time Series-AI framework for monthly JKN contribution revenue forecasting to enhance financial resilience. The methodology employs an additive decomposition approach, integrating Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) to capture linear trends and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to model nonlinear residuals and exogenous variables. The research utilizes a spatially enriched dataset (2020–2025) incorporating national macroeconomics and regional indicators such as provincial minimum wages (UMP) and Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP). Results reveal that JKN revenue is highly elastic to UMP (r > 0.8) and regional economic stability. The hybrid model, validated through rolling forecasts, yielded a Weighted Absolute Percentage Error (WAPE) of 45.18% during the volatile 2024 period, effectively capturing structural shocks that standard models overlook. These findings are translated into a “Blueprint Revenue JKN Masa Depan,” providing BPJS Kesehatan with a granular tool for adaptive liquidity buffering, region-specific risk management, and long-term fiscal planning.
Analisis Determinan Fiskal dan Transformasi Struktural Ekonomi Pedesaan: (Studi Empiris Pengelolaan Dana Desa di Kabupaten Minahasa Tenggara (2016-2020)) Alvianus Kristian Sumual; Jacline Indriany Sumual; Lili Hernawati; Eli Zulkatri; Putri Amalia
Khatulistiwa: Jurnal Pendidikan dan Sosial Humaniora Vol. 6 No. 2 (2026): Juni: Khatulistiwa: Jurnal Pendidikan dan Sosial Humaniora
Publisher : AMIK Veteran Purwokerto

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55606/khatulistiwa.v6i2.11248

Abstract

The national development paradigm of Indonesia following the enactment of Law Number 6 of 2014 has undergone a fundamental shift from centralization to asymmetric decentralization, positioning villages as the primary subjects of development. This study aims to comprehensively analyze the impact of Village Fund management on improving community economic conditions in Southeast Minahasa Regency, North Sulawesi Province, during the period 2016 to 2020. The main focus of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of budget allocation across three key pillars: human capital intervention (education and health), physical capital formation (infrastructure), and productive economic stimulus (local economic development). Using a quantitative research design with panel data covering 32 sample villages across 12 sub-districts, this study employs regression analysis with a Fixed Effect Model (FEM) approach, selected through rigorous model specification tests. The empirical findings indicate that, simultaneously, the three independent variables account for 67.83% of the variation in community economic improvement. Partially, the allocation of funds for local economic development shows the highest elasticity coefficient, followed by education and health, and infrastructure. This study confirms that the transformation of village status in Southeast Minahasa from underdeveloped to self-reliant is strongly influenced by the accuracy of fiscal allocation. The article recommends a policy reorientation from massive physical development toward commodity-based economic empowerment and the strengthening of social safety nets to ensure the sustainability of rural economic growth.
Stability and Fairness of Premiums in Bonus–Malus Systems Based on a Premium Change Index Lili Hernawati; Zainul Muttaqin; Eli Zulkatri; Putri Amalia; Alvianus Kristian Sumual
Khatulistiwa: Jurnal Pendidikan dan Sosial Humaniora Vol. 6 No. 2 (2026): Juni: Khatulistiwa: Jurnal Pendidikan dan Sosial Humaniora
Publisher : AMIK Veteran Purwokerto

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55606/khatulistiwa.v6i2.11249

Abstract

The bonus–malus system is a premium adjustment mechanism in insurance that links the level of premiums to the claim history of policyholders. In practice, such a system is expected to reflect risk in a fair manner while maintaining premium stability over time. However, studies addressing premium stability and fairness often remain implicit and lack clear quantitative indicators. This study aims to analyze premium stability and fairness in a bonus–malus system using a premium change index as an evaluation tool. The research adopts an evaluative and descriptive approach based on a table of relative bonus–malus premiums defined by the total number of claims, the number of large claims, and the bonus–malus period. Premium stability is assessed through inter-period premium changes, which are formalized into the Stability–Fairness Premium Index (SFPI) defined as the average absolute change in premiums over time. The results show that the index increases with the total number of claims, indicating a higher sensitivity of premiums to risk exposure. Nevertheless, for a fixed total number of claims, the index is not affected by the number of large claims, suggesting that penalties are applied proportionally without increasing premium volatility. These findings indicate that the analyzed bonus–malus system achieves a balance between premium stability and fairness. The proposed index provides a simple and transparent quantitative framework for evaluating bonus–malus systems and may support the development of fairer and more stable premium-setting policies in insurance.
Co-Authors Ahmad Rhandy Irsandha Ahmad Tijani Noor Alvianus Kristian Sumual Aris Pransisco Siringo Ringo Aura Nabil Arsy Beby Griselda Putri Brayen Endo Raldie Jacline Indriany Sumual Lili Hernawati Mila Fitria Sari Nadya Haryanto Natalie Mawar Desember Desember Novia Ramadhany Rumengan Putri Amalia Yumna Aqila Zainul Muttaqin