Article Per Year (5 Year)
p-Index From 2021 - 2026
0.562
P-Index
This Author published in this journals
All Journal Jurnal Forum Analisis Statistik Jurnal Pendidikan dan Sosial Humaniora
Lili Hernawati
Institut Teknologi Kalimantan
Humanities Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education

Published : 3 Documents Claim Missing Document
Claim Missing Document
Check
Articles

Found 3 Documents
Search

 1 
Analisis Dinamika Kasus Baru HIV/AIDS di Kalimantan Timur Menggunakan Regresi Binomial Negatif Eli Zulkatri; Lili Hernawati; Yumna Aqila
Jurnal Forum Analisis Statistik Vol. 6 No. 1 (2026): Jurnal Forum Analisis Statistik (FORMASI)
Publisher : Badan Pusat Statistik Provinsi Kalimantan Barat

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.57059/formasi.v6i1.145

Abstract

Kasus HIV/AIDS masih menjadi persoalan kesehatan masyarakat yang perlu dianalisis tidak hanya dari sisi jumlah kasus, tetapi juga dari pola perubahannya antarwaktu dan antarwilayah. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis dinamika kasus baru HIV/AIDS di Provinsi Kalimantan Timur serta menguji hubungan antara indikator sosial-ekonomi dan jumlah kasus baru HIV/AIDS. Data yang digunakan merupakan data panel 10 kabupaten/kota selama periode 2022 sampai 2025, sehingga diperoleh 40 observasi. Variabel respons adalah jumlah kasus baru HIV/AIDS, sedangkan variabel penjelas meliputi kepadatan penduduk, persentase penduduk miskin, tingkat pengangguran terbuka, dan indikator tahun. Analisis dilakukan menggunakan regresi Poisson dan regresi Binomial Negatif. Hasil deskriptif menunjukkan bahwa total kasus baru HIV/AIDS menurun dari 453 kasus pada tahun 2022 menjadi 297 kasus pada tahun 2025, tetapi masih terkonsentrasi pada Kota Samarinda, Kota Balikpapan, dan Kutai Kartanegara. Model Poisson menunjukkan overdispersi dengan deviance/df sebesar 29,6335 dan Pearson/df sebesar 39,0681. Regresi Binomial Negatif memberikan kecocokan model yang lebih baik dengan AIC sebesar 359,5597, lebih rendah dibandingkan model Poisson sebesar 1.168,6176. Hasil model menunjukkan bahwa tingkat pengangguran terbuka berasosiasi positif dan signifikan dengan jumlah kasus baru HIV/AIDS dengan IRR sebesar 1,5052. Sementara itu, kepadatan penduduk, persentase penduduk miskin, dan indikator tahun belum signifikan secara statistik. Temuan ini menunjukkan pentingnya mempertimbangkan indikator ketenagakerjaan dan prioritas wilayah dalam pengendalian HIV/AIDS di Kalimantan Timur.
Analisis Determinan Fiskal dan Transformasi Struktural Ekonomi Pedesaan: (Studi Empiris Pengelolaan Dana Desa di Kabupaten Minahasa Tenggara (2016-2020)) Alvianus Kristian Sumual; Jacline Indriany Sumual; Lili Hernawati; Eli Zulkatri; Putri Amalia
Khatulistiwa: Jurnal Pendidikan dan Sosial Humaniora Vol. 6 No. 2 (2026): Juni: Khatulistiwa: Jurnal Pendidikan dan Sosial Humaniora
Publisher : AMIK Veteran Purwokerto

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55606/khatulistiwa.v6i2.11248

Abstract

The national development paradigm of Indonesia following the enactment of Law Number 6 of 2014 has undergone a fundamental shift from centralization to asymmetric decentralization, positioning villages as the primary subjects of development. This study aims to comprehensively analyze the impact of Village Fund management on improving community economic conditions in Southeast Minahasa Regency, North Sulawesi Province, during the period 2016 to 2020. The main focus of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of budget allocation across three key pillars: human capital intervention (education and health), physical capital formation (infrastructure), and productive economic stimulus (local economic development). Using a quantitative research design with panel data covering 32 sample villages across 12 sub-districts, this study employs regression analysis with a Fixed Effect Model (FEM) approach, selected through rigorous model specification tests. The empirical findings indicate that, simultaneously, the three independent variables account for 67.83% of the variation in community economic improvement. Partially, the allocation of funds for local economic development shows the highest elasticity coefficient, followed by education and health, and infrastructure. This study confirms that the transformation of village status in Southeast Minahasa from underdeveloped to self-reliant is strongly influenced by the accuracy of fiscal allocation. The article recommends a policy reorientation from massive physical development toward commodity-based economic empowerment and the strengthening of social safety nets to ensure the sustainability of rural economic growth.
Stability and Fairness of Premiums in Bonus–Malus Systems Based on a Premium Change Index Lili Hernawati; Zainul Muttaqin; Eli Zulkatri; Putri Amalia; Alvianus Kristian Sumual
Khatulistiwa: Jurnal Pendidikan dan Sosial Humaniora Vol. 6 No. 2 (2026): Juni: Khatulistiwa: Jurnal Pendidikan dan Sosial Humaniora
Publisher : AMIK Veteran Purwokerto

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55606/khatulistiwa.v6i2.11249

Abstract

The bonus–malus system is a premium adjustment mechanism in insurance that links the level of premiums to the claim history of policyholders. In practice, such a system is expected to reflect risk in a fair manner while maintaining premium stability over time. However, studies addressing premium stability and fairness often remain implicit and lack clear quantitative indicators. This study aims to analyze premium stability and fairness in a bonus–malus system using a premium change index as an evaluation tool. The research adopts an evaluative and descriptive approach based on a table of relative bonus–malus premiums defined by the total number of claims, the number of large claims, and the bonus–malus period. Premium stability is assessed through inter-period premium changes, which are formalized into the Stability–Fairness Premium Index (SFPI) defined as the average absolute change in premiums over time. The results show that the index increases with the total number of claims, indicating a higher sensitivity of premiums to risk exposure. Nevertheless, for a fixed total number of claims, the index is not affected by the number of large claims, suggesting that penalties are applied proportionally without increasing premium volatility. These findings indicate that the analyzed bonus–malus system achieves a balance between premium stability and fairness. The proposed index provides a simple and transparent quantitative framework for evaluating bonus–malus systems and may support the development of fairer and more stable premium-setting policies in insurance.
Co-Authors Alvianus Kristian Sumual Eli Zulkatri Jacline Indriany Sumual Putri Amalia Yumna Aqila Zainul Muttaqin