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All Journal Biodiversitas Journal of Biological Diversity
NISYAWATI NISYAWATI
Department of Biology, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Indonesia. Jl. Lingkar Akademik, Depok 16424, West Java, Indonesia
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology

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Predicting potential impacts of climate change on the geographical distribution of mountainous selaginellas in Java, Indonesia AHMAD DWI SETYAWAN; JATNA SUPRIATNA; NISYAWATI NISYAWATI; ILYAS NURSAMSI; SUTARNO SUTARNO; SUGIYARTO SUGIYARTO; SUNARTO SUNARTO; PRAKASH PRADAN; SUGENG BUDIHARTA; ARI PITOYO; SAPTA SUHARDONO; PRABANG SETYONO; MUHAMMAD INDRAWAN
Biodiversitas Journal of Biological Diversity Vol. 21 No. 10 (2020)
Publisher : Society for Indonesian Biodiversity

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.13057/biodiv/d211053

Abstract

Abstract. Setyawan AD, Supriatna J, Nisyawati, Nursamsi I, Sutarno, Sugiyarto, Sunarto, Pradan P, Budiharta S, Pitoyo A, Suhardono S, Setyono P, Indrawan M. 2020. Predicting potential impacts of climate change on the geographical distribution of mountainous selaginellas in Java, Indonesia. Biodiversitas 21: 4866-4877. Selaginella is a genus of non-flowering plant that requires water as a medium for fertilization, as such, it prefers mountainous areas with high level of humidity. Such unique ecosystem of Selaginella is available in some parts of Java Island, Indonesia, especially in highland areas with altitude of more than 1,000 meters above sea level. However, most mountainous areas in Java are likely to be affected by climate change due to global warming, threatening the habitat and sustainability of Selaginella. This study aimed to investigate the impacts of climate change on the geographical distribution of Selaginella opaca Warb. and Selaginella remotifolia Spring. In doing so, we predicted the suitable habitats of both species using Species Distribution Model (SDM) tool of MaxEnt under present climate conditions and future conditions under four climate change scenarios. Species occurrence data were obtained from fieldworks conducted in 2007-2014 across Java Island (283 points: 144 and 139 points for S. opaca and S. remotifolia, respectively) and combined with secondary data from Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) (52 points: 35 and 17 points for S. opaca and S. remotifolia, respectively), and this dataset was used to model present geographical distribution using environmental and bioclimatic variables. Then, future distribution was predicted under four climate change scenarios: i.e. RCP (Representative Carbon Pathways) 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5 in three different time periods (2030, 2050, and 2080). The results of the models showed that the extent of suitable habitats of S. opaca and S. remotifolia will be reduced between 1.8-11.4% due to changes in climatic condition, and in the areas with high level of habitat suitability, including Mount Sumbing, Mount Sindoro and Mount Dieng (Dieng Plateau), the reduction can reach up to 60%. This study adds another context of evidence to understand the potential impacts of climate change on biodiversity, especially on climate-sensitive species, such as Selaginella, in climate-risk regions like mountainous areas of Java Island.
Projecting expansion range of Selaginella zollingeriana in the Indonesian archipelago under future climate condition AHMAD DWI SETYAWAN; JATNA SUPRIATNA; NISYAWATI NISYAWATI; ILYAS NURSAMSI; SUTARNO SUTARNO; SUGIYARTO SUGIYARTO; SUNARTO SUNARTO; PRAKASH PRADAN; SUGENG BUDIHARTA; ARI PITOYO; SAPTA SUHARDONO; PRABANG SETYONO; MUHAMMAD INDRAWAN
Biodiversitas Journal of Biological Diversity Vol. 22 No. 4 (2021)
Publisher : Society for Indonesian Biodiversity

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.13057/biodiv/d220458

Abstract

Abstract. Setyawan AD, Supriatna J, Nisyawati, Nursamsi I, Sutarno, Sugiyarto, Sunarto, Pradan P, Budiharta S, Pitoyo A, Suhardono S, Setyono P, Indrawan M. 2021. Projecting expansion range of Selaginella zollingeriana in the Indonesian archipelago under future climate conditions. Biodiversitas 22: 2088-2103. The expansion of plant species to outside areas of its original localities has attracted great interest in theoretical ecology. The scientific curiosity of such phenomenon is even deeper when the geographical expansion is confined by natural boundaries and affected by environmental changes, including climates. This study aimed to predict the current suitable habitat niche of Selaginella zollingeriana Spring, a species with original distribution in Java Island, and to project its potential suitable niche in the Indonesian archipelago accounting for future climate conditions. In doing so, we applied the Ecological Niche Modelings (ENMs) using MaxEnt algorithm by employing 30 presence data of S. zollingeriana and twelve enviro-climatic variables. The model predicted around 17.22% (22,095 km2) of the Java Island area is potentially suitable for current habitat niche of S. zollingeriana, consisting of 10.93% (14,028 km2), 4.75% (6,097 km2), and 1.54% (1,970 km2) of low, medium, and high suitability areas, respectively. Under future scenarios, the model predicted the possibility of species expansion into the other four big islands (i.e., Sumatera, Borneo, Sulawesi, and Papua). Nonetheless, the model also predicted a declining trend of the availability of suitable niches wherein from 2030 to 2080 the modeled niche declined about 58% and 59% under the most optimistic and most pessimistic climate change projections, respectively. While this study provides a primary example in predicting species expansion in tropical archipelago, similar studies in a range of contexts (e.g., species, region) are recommended to add more evidence to strengthen the theoretical ground of expansion ecology under climate changes.
Co-Authors AHMAD DWI SETYAWAN AHMAD DWI SETYAWAN ARI PITOYO ARI PITOYO ILYAS NURSAMSI ILYAS NURSAMSI JATNA SUPRIATNA MUHAMMAD INDRAWAN MUHAMMAD INDRAWAN PRABANG SETYONO PRABANG SETYONO PRAKASH PRADAN SAPTA SUHARDONO SAPTA SUHARDONO SUGENG BUDIHARTA SUGENG BUDIHARTA SUGIYARTO SUGIYARTO SUGIYARTO SUGIYARTO SUNARTO SUNARTO SUNARTO SUNARTO SUTARNO SUTARNO SUTARNO SUTARNO