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Dinasti Politik dan Politik Uang Sebagai Pemicu Kerawanan Pemilu: Studi Komparatif di Kabupaten Probolinggo dan Tuban, Jawa Timur Siti Kholifah; Ucca Arawindha; Indhar Wahyu Wiraharjo; Mohammad Fajar Shodiq Ramadlan; Siti Zurinani
Ganaya : Jurnal Ilmu Sosial dan Humaniora Vol 9 No 3 (2026)
Publisher : Jayapangus Press

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37329/ganaya.v9i3.5657

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the comparative of election vulnerability level in Tuban and Probolinggo Regencies, East Java in 2024. The selection of Probolinggo and Tuban Regencies as representatives of regencies with the lowest and highest Vulnerability Index in East Java according to the Election Supervisory Agency (Bawaslu). This study uses a quantitative research method by deriving research variables from the Election Vulnerability Index concept from Bawaslu. Based on this concept, it is derived into a variable of Election Vulnerability Level with a measurement of four dimensions, namely the socio-political context, elections administration, contestation, and political participation. The data collection technique carried out through interviews using questionnaires, observation and document data. Determination of the number of respondents using the Slovin formula of 100 respondents taken simple randomly from the voter list in each district. The results of the study show that Probolinggo Regency exhibits a moderate level of election vulnerability higher than Tuban Regency, particularly regarding indicators of power relations, political dynasties, mobilization and money politics, conversely, Tuban Regency predominantly into the low vulnerability category. This is also supported by results of the Mann-Whitney U statistical test of the election vulnerability level between the two regencies with Z analysis =-3,3 and Sig=0,001, using an alpha of 0,05, it can be concluded that there is a difference in the level of election vulnerability level between Tuban and Probolinggo Regencies. This study assert that a difference from the results of the Election Vulnerability Index conducted by Bawaslu in 2022. This is due to rapidly changing political dynamics and the influence of socio-political factors.