Ganaya: Jurnal Ilmu Sosial dan Humaniora
Vol 9 No 3 (2026)

Dinasti Politik dan Politik Uang Sebagai Pemicu Kerawanan Pemilu: Studi Komparatif di Kabupaten Probolinggo dan Tuban, Jawa Timur

Siti Kholifah (Universitas Brawijaya)
Ucca Arawindha (Universitas Brawijaya)
Indhar Wahyu Wiraharjo (Universitas Brawijaya)
Mohammad Fajar Shodiq Ramadlan (Universitas Brawijaya)
Siti Zurinani (Universitas Brawijaya)



Article Info

Publish Date
18 Aug 2026

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the comparative of election vulnerability level in Tuban and Probolinggo Regencies, East Java in 2024. The selection of Probolinggo and Tuban Regencies as representatives of regencies with the lowest and highest Vulnerability Index in East Java according to the Election Supervisory Agency (Bawaslu). This study uses a quantitative research method by deriving research variables from the Election Vulnerability Index concept from Bawaslu. Based on this concept, it is derived into a variable of Election Vulnerability Level with a measurement of four dimensions, namely the socio-political context, elections administration, contestation, and political participation. The data collection technique carried out through interviews using questionnaires, observation and document data. Determination of the number of respondents using the Slovin formula of 100 respondents taken simple randomly from the voter list in each district. The results of the study show that Probolinggo Regency exhibits a moderate level of election vulnerability higher than Tuban Regency, particularly regarding indicators of power relations, political dynasties, mobilization and money politics, conversely, Tuban Regency predominantly into the low vulnerability category. This is also supported by results of the Mann-Whitney U statistical test of the election vulnerability level between the two regencies with Z analysis =-3,3 and Sig=0,001, using an alpha of 0,05, it can be concluded that there is a difference in the level of election vulnerability level between Tuban and Probolinggo Regencies. This study assert that a difference from the results of the Election Vulnerability Index conducted by Bawaslu in 2022. This is due to rapidly changing political dynamics and the influence of socio-political factors.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

ganaya

Publisher

Subject

Religion Arts Humanities Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Social Sciences Other

Description

Ganaya: Jurnal Ilmu Sosial dan Humaniora is a journal published by Jayapangus Press which contains the results of research in the field of social sciences and humanities. The purpose of this journal is to publish and disseminate writings in the social sciences and humanities that can contribute to ...