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All Journal JURNAL KEBANGSAAN REPUBLIK INDONESIA
Usman Sartoyo
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Education Environmental Science Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Social Sciences Other

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PERAMALAN JUMLAH PENDUDUK DKI JAKARTA DENGAN METODE REGRESI LINEAR UNTUK MEMPERSIAPKAN INDONESIA EMAS 2045 Ega Rizki; Nisa Rahmawati; Rafli Akbar Fauzan; Usman Sartoyo; Arini Retnoningsih
JURNAL KEBANGSAAN RI Vol 3 No 2 (2026): Edisi 6
Publisher : LEMBAGA PUSAT KAJIAN KEBANGSAAN/PUSKAB UKRI

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31848/jkri.v3i2.4414

Abstract

Indonesia has been experiencing a demographic bonus since 2015.Without careful planning, the demographic bonus can turn into ademographic burden. Therefore, this study aims to analyze and predict thenumber of productive age human resources (15-64 years) and non-productivehuman resources (>65 years) to welcome the 2045 golden Indonesia missionusing the linear regression forecasting method based on the last 8 years ofdata from the DKI Jakarta Central Bureau of Statistics. Based on theprediction results, the Productive Age Population in DKI Jakarta in IndonesiaEmas 2045 is estimated to reach 9,015,054 people, and the non-productiveage is estimated to reach 3,056,602 people. Based on the results of thesepredictions, a dependency ratio of 33.91% is obtained, which shows that thedependency value is low so that the country can maximize the demographicbonus. Therefore, it is hoped that the government can provide equitable accessto learning, facilities for fostering various labor professions and expandingemployment opportunities to achieve sustainable development goals that willsupport the success of the 2045 Golden Indonesia vision and mission so thatIndonesia can become a developed country.
Co-Authors Arini Retnoningsih Ega Rizki Nisa Rahmawati Rafli Akbar Fauzan