JURNAL KEBANGSAAN REPUBLIK INDONESIA
Vol 3 No 2 (2026): Edisi 6

PERAMALAN JUMLAH PENDUDUK DKI JAKARTA DENGAN METODE REGRESI LINEAR UNTUK MEMPERSIAPKAN INDONESIA EMAS 2045

Ega Rizki (Teknik Elektro)
Nisa Rahmawati (Unknown)
Rafli Akbar Fauzan (Unknown)
Usman Sartoyo (Unknown)
Arini Retnoningsih (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
30 May 2026

Abstract

Indonesia has been experiencing a demographic bonus since 2015.Without careful planning, the demographic bonus can turn into ademographic burden. Therefore, this study aims to analyze and predict thenumber of productive age human resources (15-64 years) and non-productivehuman resources (>65 years) to welcome the 2045 golden Indonesia missionusing the linear regression forecasting method based on the last 8 years ofdata from the DKI Jakarta Central Bureau of Statistics. Based on theprediction results, the Productive Age Population in DKI Jakarta in IndonesiaEmas 2045 is estimated to reach 9,015,054 people, and the non-productiveage is estimated to reach 3,056,602 people. Based on the results of thesepredictions, a dependency ratio of 33.91% is obtained, which shows that thedependency value is low so that the country can maximize the demographicbonus. Therefore, it is hoped that the government can provide equitable accessto learning, facilities for fostering various labor professions and expandingemployment opportunities to achieve sustainable development goals that willsupport the success of the 2045 Golden Indonesia vision and mission so thatIndonesia can become a developed country.

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