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Ibnu Fajarudin
Universitas Narotama Surabaya

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Analysis Of The Contagion Effect Between The Cryptocurrency Market And The Indonesian Stock Market Dewi Yolanda Putri; Kania Laelawati; Arasy Alimudin; Ibnu Fajarudin; Nila Sari
Journal of Management Vol. 5 No. 2 (2026): July-December
Publisher : Yayasan Pendidikan Belajar Berdikari

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This study analyzes whether financial crises are transmitted between the cryptocurrency market and the Indonesian stock market through contagion, defined as a significant increase in cross market linkages after a shock, or merely through normal interdependence. Using daily returns of Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI), and the IDX technology sector index (IDXTECHNO) from 3 January 2018 to 30 June 2026, the study examines three crises: the COVID crash of 2020, which originated in traditional markets, and the Terra (LUNA) and FTX collapses of 2022, which originated in the crypto market. Three complementary methods are used: the adjusted correlation test of Forbes and Rigobon (2002), the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) GARCH model, and the spillover index of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012). The results show that during the COVID crash, the shock from the stock market spread to the crypto market, with significant contagion to Ethereum and weak contagion to Bitcoin even after correcting for heteroskedasticity. During the crypto crises, contagion did not reach the broad Indonesian market: correlations between crypto and the JCI declined. The technology sector, however, experienced significant contagion during the Terra (LUNA) collapse and a sharp rise in dynamic correlation during both crypto crises. The total spillover index averages 29.2%, with crypto assets acting as net transmitters and Indonesian stocks as net receivers, and it rises markedly after each crisis. The findings indicate that crypto shocks are transmitted selectively to the Indonesian technology sector rather than to the market as a whole.
The Impact Of Bitcoin Price Volatility On Technology Sector Stock Returns On The Indonesia Stock Exchange Jentot Tugiyono; Siska Ayudia Adiyanti; Ibnu Fajarudin; Ariyani; Nila Sari; Putri Zanufasari
Journal of Management Vol. 2 No. 2 (2023): July - December
Publisher : Yayasan Pendidikan Belajar Berdikari

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This study examines whether Bitcoin price volatility affects the returns of technology sector stocks listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). The rapid growth of Indonesian digital companies and the increasing participation of retail investors in both crypto assets and equities raise the possibility that shocks in the crypto market spill over to the domestic technology sector. Using daily data from January 2021 to June 2026 (1,431 observations), Bitcoin’s conditional volatility is estimated with a GARCH(1,1) model with Student-t errors and then incorporated into a time-series regression of IDX Technology Sector Index (IDXTECHNO) returns, controlling for Bitcoin returns and the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI), with Newey–West standard errors. The results show that Bitcoin volatility is highly persistent and that Bitcoin returns have a positive and significant effect on technology sector returns. Over the full sample, Bitcoin volatility has a negative but statistically insignificant effect. However, sub-period analysis reveals a significant negative effect during the 2021–2022 crypto and technology boom–bust cycle, which disappears in 2023–2026. These findings suggest that the transmission of crypto market risk to Indonesian technology stocks is regime-dependent and operates mainly through return co-movement rather than volatility itself. The study offers implications for investors’ portfolio diversification and for regulators’ monitoring of cross-market spillovers.