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All Journal EKSAKTA: Journal of Sciences and Data Analysis Journal of Natural Sciences and Mathematics Research Sistemasi: Jurnal Sistem Informasi BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Jambura Journal of Mathematics Jurnal Varian Jurnal Teknik Informatika (JUTIF) Euler : Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika, Sains dan Teknologi Enthusiastic : International Journal of Applied Statistics and Data Science Journal of Mathematics, Computation and Statistics (JMATHCOS) Emerging Statistics and Data Science Journal
Kartikasari, Mujiati Dwi
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Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Chemistry Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Earth & Planetary Sciences Economics, Econometrics & Finance Electrical & Electronics Engineering Energy Engineering Materials Science & Nanotechnology Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Physics Social Sciences Transportation Other

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Journal : Journal of Mathematics, Computation and Statistics (JMATHCOS)

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Peramalan Inflow dan Outflow Uang Kartal Menggunakan X-13 ARIMA-SEATS Herdiantini , Rizka Fitria; Kartikasari, Mujiati Dwi
Journal of Mathematics, Computations and Statistics Vol. 7 No. 2 (2024): Volume 07 Nomor 02 (Oktober 2024)
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/jmathcos.v7i2.4331

Abstract

Currency is an important part of Indonesian society's economic transactions. In order to effectively manage the amount of currency in circulation, Bank Indonesia must carefully plan and estimate its currency needs. One way to estimate this need is by looking at Bank Indonesia's inflow and outflow. Therefore, forecasting currency inflow and outflow is crucial for future planning. Inflow and outflow data are included in the time series that is affected by calendar variations. Traditional forecasting methods, such as exponential smoothing and ARIMA, cannot handle these variations. Therefore, this study uses the X-13 ARIMA-SEATS method, which is able to forecast time series data with the effect of calendar variations. Based on monthly data on currency inflow and outflow from January 2015 to December 2022, the results show that the X-13 ARIMA-SEATS method is effective when used with the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) criteria.
Unveiling the Connection: The Impact of Poverty Rate on Human Development Index in the Special Region of Yogyakarta Province Using the Almon Lag Model Vatin, Kayyis; Kartikasari, Mujiati Dwi
Journal of Mathematics, Computations and Statistics Vol. 8 No. 1 (2025): Volume 08 Nomor 01 (April 2025)
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/jmathcos.v8i1.7348

Abstract

The Human Development Index (HDI) is established as one of the main indicators included in the fundamental framework of regional development. Ideally, HDI, which serves as a benchmark for regional development, has a negative correlation with poverty conditions. Historical poverty can influence the current HDI based on elements of health, education, and a decent standard of living. The Special Region of Yogyakarta is the province with the second-highest HDI in Indonesia but has had the highest poverty rate in Java in recent years. The Almon Lag Model can analyze the impact of poverty on HDI by considering the distributed lag effect. This study aims to analyze the impact of the poverty rate on HDI over the past twenty-seven years. Based on the analysis, the best model utilizes a lag length of three years and a polynomial degree of two. The model has a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 0.73%, indicating that the applied Almon Lag Model can make accurate predictions.
Co-Authors Cahyani, Amalia Rizqi Chaerunnisa, Azzahra Fajriani Destia, Bella Febriani, Atika Dwi Fitriyah, Zakiyatul Herdiantini , Rizka Fitria Inas Rafidah Junita, Tarisya Permata Mulyawati, Saffanah Nur Elvina Mutalip, Nurqalbu Abd. Nurhasanah , Deden PRASMONO, AMIMAH SHABRINA PUTRI Putri, Farah Anindia Qonita, Rosyada Laili Salsabila , Aurielle Maulidya Sulistyawati, Yuni Vatin, Kayyis Wijayanti, Latifah Nur