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All Journal International Journal of Electrical and Computer Engineering Journal of Engineering and Technological Sciences Communication in Biomathematical Sciences Journal of Rural Development and Applied Technology
Apri, Mochamad
Faculty Of Mathematics And Natural Sciences, Institut Teknologi Bandung
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Humanities Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Electrical & Electronics Engineering Engineering Social Sciences

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MODELING SIMULATION OF COVID-19 IN INDONESIA BASED ON EARLY ENDEMIC DATA Nuraini, Nuning; Khairudin, Kamal; Apri, Mochamad
Communication in Biomathematical Sciences Vol 3, No 1 (2020)
Publisher : Indonesian Bio-Mathematical Society

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.5614/cbms.2020.3.1.1

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has recently caused so much anxiety and speculation around the world. This phenomenon was mainly driven by the drastic increase in the number of infected people with the COVID-19 virus worldwide. Here we propose a simple model to predict the endemic in Indonesia. The model is based on the Richard?s Curve that represents a modified logistic equation. Based on the similar trends of initial data between Indonesia and South Korea, we use parameter values that are obtained through parameter estimation of the model to the data in South Korea. Further, we use a strict assumption that the implemented strategy in Indonesia is as effective as in South Korea. The results show that endemic will end in April 2020 with the total number of cases more than 8000.
Modeling Simulation of COVID-19 in Indonesia based on Early Endemic Data Nuning Nuraini; Kamal Khairudin; Mochamad Apri
Communication in Biomathematical Sciences Vol. 3 No. 1 (2020)
Publisher : Indonesian Bio-Mathematical Society

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.5614/cbms.2020.3.1.1

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has recently caused so much anxiety and speculation around the world. This phenomenon was mainly driven by the drastic increase in the number of infected people with the COVID-19 virus worldwide. Here we propose a simple model to predict the endemic in Indonesia. The model is based on the Richard's Curve that represents a modified logistic equation. Based on the similar trends of initial data between Indonesia and South Korea, we use parameter values that are obtained through parameter estimation of the model to the data in South Korea. Further, we use a strict assumption that the implemented strategy in Indonesia is as effective as in South Korea. The results show that endemic will end in April 2020 with the total number of cases more than 8000.
Reducing Numerical Dispersion with High-Order Finite Difference to Increase Seismic Wave Energy: - Syamsurizal Rizal; Awali Priyono; Andri Dian Nugraha; Mochamad Apri; Mochamad Agus Moelyadi; David Prambudi Sahara
Journal of Engineering and Technological Sciences Vol. 55 No. 4 (2023)
Publisher : Directorate for Research and Community Services, Institut Teknologi Bandung

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.5614/j.eng.technol.sci.2023.55.4.5

Abstract

The numerical dispersion of 2D acoustic wave modeling has become an interesting subject in wave modeling in producing better subsurface images. Numerical dispersion is often caused by error accumulation with increased grid size in wave modeling. Wave modeling with high-order finite differences was carried out to reduce the numerical error. This study focused on variations in the numerical order to suppress the dispersion due to numerical errors. The wave equation used in modeling was discretized to higher orders for the spatial term, while the time term was discretized up to the second order, with every layer unabsorbed. The results showed that high-order FD was effective in reducing numerical dispersion. Thus, subsurface layers could be distinguished and observed clearly. However, from the modeling results, the wave energy decreased with increasing distance, so the layer interfaces were unclear. To increase the wave energy, we propose a new source in modeling. Furthermore, to reduce the computational time we propose a proportional grid after numerical dispersion has disappeared. This method can effectively increase the energy of reflected and transmitted waves at a certain depth. The results also showed that the computational time of high-order FD is relatively low, so this method can be used in solving dispersion problems.
Optimal control strategies based on extended Kalman filter in mathematical models of COVID-19 Suhika, Dewi; Saragih, Roberd; Handayani, Dewi; Apri, Mochamad
International Journal of Electrical and Computer Engineering (IJECE) Vol 14, No 6: December 2024
Publisher : Institute of Advanced Engineering and Science

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.11591/ijece.v14i6.pp6300-6312

Abstract

The Omicron variant of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is an extremely contagious variant that has garnered global attention due to its potential for rapid spread and its impact on the effectiveness of vaccines and non-pharmacological measures. In this paper, we investigate mathematical models involving vaccinated individuals and control functions to analyze how the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection evolves over time. In the process of constructing a mathematical model for COVID-19, there are many parameters whose values are not yet known with certainty. Therefore, the extended Kalman filter method is used as a tool to estimate these parameters in an effort to better understand the dynamics of the spread and evolution of this disease. This method helps align the mathematical model with existing empirical data, allowing us to make more accurate predictions about the course of the COVID-19 pandemic and plan more precise actions to address the situation. Furthermore, an optimal control design is applied to reduce the number of infected individuals by implementing seven strategies involving a combination of health education, vaccination, and isolation controls. The simulation results we conducted indicate that the use of optimal control strategies can lead to a significant decrease in the number of individuals infected with COVID-19.
Mathematical Model for the Growth of Mycobacterium Tuberculosis Infection in the Lungs: Dewanti, Retno Wahyu; Widianto, Wisnu Prasojo; Apri, Mochamad; Nuraini, Nuning; Fakhruddin, Muhammad
Communication in Biomathematical Sciences Vol. 8 No. 1 (2025)
Publisher : The Indonesian Bio-Mathematical Society

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.5614/cbms.2025.8.1.8

Abstract

In this work, we develop a population dynamics model of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb), the bacteria responsible for tuberculosis (TB), to evaluate the impact of bacterial competition on infection prevalence. We consider two types of Mtb population growth: The first is caused by bacteria that grow inside each infected macrophage and is believed to be correlated with the number of infected macrophages; The second is that extracellular bacteria grow through self-replication. In this study, we modeled the immune response to Mtb bacterial infection in the lungs using a five-dimensional differential equation system. This model represents changes in the number of healthy macrophages, infected macrophages, activated macrophages cells, extracellular bacterial particles, and naive T cells. Qualitative analysis and numerical results reveal the existence of two equilibrium points: disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium, which represent latent or active tuberculosis based on the number of bacteria. In addition, a sensitive analysis of the model parameters shows that macrophages are not sufficient to control the initial invasion of Mtb. The immune system must therefore employ more complex defense mechanisms to contain Mtb infection, such as recruiting various elements of immune system and forming granulomas.
A Vaccination and Isolation Strategy Based on an Adaptive Sliding Mode Control Design for the COVID-19 Virus (Omicron Variant) in Jakarta, Indonesia Suhika, Dewi; Saragih, Roberd; Handayani, Dewi; Apri, Mochamad
Communication in Biomathematical Sciences Vol. 8 No. 1 (2025)
Publisher : The Indonesian Bio-Mathematical Society

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.5614/cbms.2025.8.1.2

Abstract

The Omicron variant, identified as B.1.1.529, has been recognized as a variant of concern (VOC) by the World Health Organization (WHO), necessitating continuous monitoring and a proactive response. This study develops a mathematical model to analyze the spread of COVID-19 mutations, considering a population that, despite vaccination, remains susceptible to infection. The model also accounts for key epidemiological factors, including the incubation period, quarantine measures, and various intervention strategies. This study focuses on the epidemiological conditions in Jakarta Province, where the highest number of Omicron cases in Indonesia has been recorded. Real-world epidemiological data related to Omicron in Jakarta were collected between February 6, 2022, and May 6, 2022. Model parameters were estimated using genetic algorithm optimization. A significant challenge in epidemic modeling is the uncertainty of parameters, which can substantially affect the effectiveness of control measures. To address this challenge, an adaptive sliding mode control approach is introduced, allowing dynamic adjustments to parameter variations without requiring precise parameter estimation. This approach maintains system stability by enforcing a predefined sliding surface, making it inherently robust against uncertainties. The main goal of this approach is to gradually minimize infections attributed to the initial COVID-19 strain and the Omicron variant, while simultaneously decreasing the count of susceptible individuals by ensuring the system follows a specified reference trajectory. Additionally, an adaptive mechanism is implemented to account for unknown variations in the system using the Lyapunov stability theorem. Numerical simulations illustrate that adaptive sliding mode control significantly improves epidemic management, reducing infections by 92.8% for the original strain and by 96.87% for the Omicron variant when compared to an uncontrolled scenario. Furthermore, the basic reproduction number (R0) is lowered by 85.92%, confirming the efficiency of adaptive sliding mode control in mitigating the outbreak. Moreover, this study incorporates a cost-effectiveness analysis to assess the viability of various vaccination and isolation strategies. The findings contribute to epidemiological research by offering valuable insights for policymakers in designing effective and resilient intervention strategies for epidemic management.
Analyzing Mask-Wearing Decisions Using Game Theory and the SIR Model with a Replicator Equation in Post-Pandemic Situations Nasution, Yuki Novia; Rizqo, Muhammad Abyan; Nuraini, Nuning; Apri, Mochamad; Susanto, Hadi
Communication in Biomathematical Sciences Vol. 9 No. 1 (2026)
Publisher : The Indonesian Bio-Mathematical Society

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.5614/cbms.2026.9.1.1

Abstract

During the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries implemented policies on using masks to control the outbreak. This policy has been relaxed in almost all countries, after which. Respiratory disease outbreaks re-emerged in several countries, including Indonesia. This article presents a game-theoretic model of mask use by the community during the spread of the disease. Both the effectiveness of masks in preventing the spread of the disease and the proportion of the infected population are included in the payoff calculation. The model is combined a with the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) epidemic model with the replicator equation. The model is also evaluated under Nash equilibrium conditions. Simulations are carried out to effect of mask-wearing behavior on the incidence of acute respiratory infection in Jakarta. The results show that an individual's decision to use a mask is directly proportional to mask users. To reduce the number of infections, more than 10% of the population need to wear masks when the disease first appears. In the Nash equilibrium, we obtain a threshold value of the infected population at which the players decide not to use the mask. The results suggest that when respiratory infectious diseases emerge, governments must implement a stringent mask policy to control their spread and reduce infections.
Optimizing Agriculture through Digital Transformation: The Role of BUMDes in Haurngombong Village, Sumedang District Taufikurahman, Taufik; Sudrajad, Oktofa Yudha; Apri, Mochamad; Rizkyani, RR. Deby A; Purnamawati, Rizka; Ginanjar, Tetep; Noviana, Zelika R; Ulfa, Nanda Shofiyah
Journal of Rural Development and Applied Technology Vol. 2 No. 1 (2025): Journal of Rural Development & Applied Technology Vol.2 No.1
Publisher : Center for Rural Areas Empowerment (P2D), Institut Teknologi Bandung

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstract

The primary challenge faced by farmers in Haurngombong Village is their low bargaining power in marketing agricultural produce, which is attributed to limited access to market information, capital, and distribution channels. To address this, the Center for Rural Empowerment (P2D), along with the Village-Owned Enterprise (BUMDes) Berbudi, initiated the Digital Platform Utilization Program in Haurngombong Village to strengthen the position of farmers as producers. This program aims to assist farmers in distributing and marketing their agricultural products through a digital platform, enabling them to determine a fairer selling price and expand their market network. Additionally, the program serves as a collaborative platform for farmer communities, such as the Women Farmers Group, and MSEs actors in the surrounding village area. The empowerment activities employ the Participatory Learning Activity (PLA) method, emphasizing participatory learning through lectures, discussions, and direct practice (learning by doing). The activities included initial socialization, a Focus Group Discussion (FGD), website design creation, product information collection, digital marketing training, and daily transaction recording. The program also promotes the active role of BUMDes Berbudi in assisting with product marketing, including participation in bazaars like Milangkala Desa Haurngombong and Jatifest 2023 at the ITB Jatinangor Campus. Although the program has yielded positive impacts, constraints remain, primarily related to farmers' limited access to technological devices and internet network. Further study is required to understand the correlation between the pattern of human resource (HR) utilization in agricultural activities and the effectiveness of utilizing and digitally marketing agricultural products.
Co-Authors Andri Dian Nugraha Awali Priyono Dewi Handayani Ginanjar, Tetep Hadi Susanto Kamal Khairudin Khairudin, Kamal Mochamad Agus Moelyadi Noviana, Zelika R Nuning Nuraini Purnamawati, Rizka Retno Wahyu Dewanti Rizkyani, RR. Deby A Rizqo, Muhammad Abyan Sahara, David Prambudi Sudrajad, Oktofa Yudha Suhika, Dewi Syamsiar, Syamsiar Syamsurizal Rizal Taufikurahman, Taufik Ulfa, Nanda Shofiyah Widianto, Wisnu Prasojo Yuki Novia Nasution, Yuki Novia