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All Journal Media Statistika CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi Jurnal Mahasiswa Statistik Journal of Innovation and Applied Technology Jurnal Teknologi Informasi dan Ilmu Komputer Mutiara Medika: Jurnal Kedokteran dan Kesehatan Prosiding SI MaNIs (Seminar Nasional Integrasi Matematika dan Nilai-Nilai Islami) Jurnal Penelitian Pendidikan IPA (JPPIPA) JURNAL ILMIAH MATEMATIKA DAN TERAPAN BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika) ComTech: Computer, Mathematics and Engineering Applications Industri Inovatif : Jurnal Teknik Industri Jambura Journal of Biomathematics (JJBM) Pakem : Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat
Henny Pramoedyo
Prodi Statistika Jurusan Matematika FMIPA Universitas Brawijaya
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Arts Humanities Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Chemistry Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Energy Engineering Environmental Science Health Professions Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Materials Science & Nanotechnology Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Medicine & Pharmacology Physics Public Health Social Sciences Transportation Other

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Enhancing Spatio-Temporal PCA with FASTMCD for Climate Comfort Assessment Yarcana, Agus; Pramoedyo, Henny; Astutik, Suci
CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi Vol 11, No 1 (2026): CAUCHY: JURNAL MATEMATIKA MURNI DAN APLIKASI
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Universitas Islam Negeri Maulana Malik Ibrahim Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18860/cauchy.v11i1.37866

Abstract

This study presents a robust formulation of the Spatio-Temporal Principal Component Analysis (STPCA) by integrating the Fast Minimum Covariance Determinant (FASTMCD) estimator into the spatio-temporal decomposition framework. Unlike classical STPCA—which constructs the spatio-temporal matrix from sample-based means and is therefore highly sensitive to extreme observations—the proposed STPCA–FASTMCD replaces the classical mean and scatter structure with robust estimates derived from FASTMCD. The method incorporates functional Fourier-based temporal smoothing and an inverse power–distance spatial weight matrix to better capture the underlying spatio-temporal patterns. Monthly climate data (thermal comfort, cloud cover, rainfall, and wind speed) from 24 monitoring locations in Bali during 2010–2019 are analyzed. Performance is evaluated using mean-shift analysis, eigenvalue-stability assessment, and eigenvector perturbation diagnostics. The classical STPCA produces inflated and unstable leading components, with the first eigenvalue reaching 63.36, whereas STPCA–FASTMCD reduces this value to 37.79 and yields smoother, more coherent spatial loading patterns. The robust STPC1 reveals a clear thermal–wind variability mode, enhancing the interpretability of spatial gradients relevant to climate comfort. Overall, the proposed formulation substantially improves the stability and climatic relevance of dominant spatio-temporal modes, providing a more reliable foundation for climate comfort assessment in Bali.
Spatial Variation of HDI in East Java: A Tricube-Based Geographically Weighted Regression–Flower Pollination Algorithm Modeling Approach Gani, Friansyah; Pramoedyo, Henny; Efendi, Achmad
CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi Vol 11, No 1 (2026): CAUCHY: JURNAL MATEMATIKA MURNI DAN APLIKASI
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Universitas Islam Negeri Maulana Malik Ibrahim Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18860/cauchy.v11i1.38007

Abstract

Understanding spatial disparities in human development is essential for designing equitable development policies. This study examines the spatial variation of the Human Development Index (HDI) in East Java Province using an integrated Geographically Weighted Regression–Flower Pollination Algorithm (GWR--FPA) optimized with a Tricube kernel. The integration of GWR and FPA enables simultaneous spatial weighting and metaheuristic-based bandwidth optimization. Three predictors were analyzed: population size ($X_1$), literacy rate ($X_2$), and mean years of schooling ($X_3$). Statistical diagnostics indicated significant spatial autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity in the OLS residuals, justifying the use of a spatial modeling framework. The GWR estimates revealed strong spatial non-stationarity: $X_1$ showed no significant local effect, whereas educational factors ($X_2$ and $X_3$) were significant in all 38 districts and cities. The FPA optimization enhanced bandwidth selection, resulting in improved model fit. Model comparison based on AIC and AICc showed that the GWR--FPA--Tricube model achieved the lowest values (AIC = 135.8821; AICc = 137.0045), outperforming both global OLS and standard GWR. These findings demonstrate that education-related variables are the primary drivers of HDI variation in East Java, while demographic size contributes minimally. The optimized model provides a more accurate spatial representation of local development disparities, supporting targeted policy interventions and illustrating the effectiveness of integrating metaheuristic optimization within spatial regression.
Geographically Weighted Poisson Regression Modeling Using Adaptive Gaussian Kernel Weighting For Mapping Maternal Mortality Rates In East Java Ngoro, Inayati; Pramoedyo, Henny; Astuti, Ani Budi
Jambura Journal of Biomathematics (JJBM) Volume 6, Issue 4: December 2025
Publisher : Department of Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37905/jjbm.v6i4.30411

Abstract

Maternal Mortality Rate (MMR) is a key public health indicator that reflects spatial variation across districts in East Java.  This study aims to model the spatial distribution of MMR using Geographically Weighted Poisson Regression (GWPR) with an Adaptive Gaussian Kernel weighting function. Secondary data were obtained from the 2022 East Java Provincial Health Profile, covering 38 districts and municipalities. The results indicate that GWPR outperforms the classical Poisson regression. The intercept β=2.889 (exp=17.95) suggests an average of 18 maternal deaths in the absence of predictor effects. The coverage of the fourth antenatal care visit (K4) has a significant negative effect ( β=-0.027; exp = 0.973), indicating that a 1% increase in K4 coverage reduces MMR by approximately 2.7%. Conversely, obstetric complications managed by midwives show a significant positive effect (β= = 0.0173; exp = 1.017), meaning that a 1% increase in complications raises MMR by 1.7%. Other predictorsfirst antenatal care visit (K1), ironfolic acid (IFA) supplementation, and number of health workersare not statistically significant. This study underscores the importance of expanding K4 coverage and strengthening complication management as priority strategies to reduce maternal mortality.  Furthermore, GWPR-based mapping enables more targeted maternal health interventions tailored to local characteristics.
Co-Authors Achmad Efendi Alfi Fadliana Amelia, Okky Ariska Ani Budi Astuti Ani Budi Astuti Ardianti, Deby Arif, Nur Fitriyah Atiek Iriany Chairunissa, Abela Danang Ariyanto Eni Sumarminingsih Fachri Faisal Fernandes, Adji Achmad Fernandes, Adji Achmad Rinaldo Gani, Friansyah Handoyo, Samingun Heni Kusdarwati Jaka Pratama Musashi Jannah, Friendtika Miftaqul Khoirunnisa, Elsa Azizah Korniasari, Leli Dwi Kurniawan, Galih Widhi Kusdarwati, Heni Liduina Asih Primandari, Liduina Asih Loekito Adi Soehono Luthfatul Amaliana, Luthfatul Maghfiroh, Aulia Maharani, Kasih Megasari, Dannys Melanwati, Rinda Lolita Mitakda, Maria Bernadetha Mudjiono Mudjiono, Mudjiono Ngoro, Inayati Ni Wayan Surya Wardhani Ni Wayan Surya Wardhani Novi Nur Aini, Novi Nur Nur Azizah Nurjannah Nurjannah Rahma Fitriani Ramadhan, Apry Zakaria Ramadhan, Rajuliaddin Ridwan, Yusrina Layli Riza, Sativandi Rizkiyani, Cirairina Sa’adah, Zumrotus Saniyawati, Fang You Dwi Ayu Shalu Saris, Laode Muhammad Sariyya, Hanah Rista Septiani, Kurniawati Setiarini, An Nisa Dwi Shara, Yoeniarti Suci Astutik Sumarminingsih, Eni Suryawardhani, Ni Wayan Widya Reza Wigbertus Ngabu Wijaya, Dewi Ratnasari Yanuari, Anindita Yarcana, Agus Yuli Triana, Eka Putri