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Satriani, Rini
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Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education

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The Role of Banking Services in Determining the Destination Countries for Indonesia's Non-Oil and Gas Export Satriani, Rini
Economics and Finance in Indonesia Vol. 66, No. 2
Publisher : UI Scholars Hub

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Abstract

This study aims to examine whether the risk factor and banking services play a significant role in determining not only the export performance of a country but also the pattern of export destination markets, with the reference to the case of Indonesia. These two indicators are interrelated because the risk factor in export transactions can be mitigated by banking sector. Using the data of export Letter of Credits (LCs) for non-oil and gas exports of Indonesia as a banking instrument to mitigate special risk transactions to 102 export destination countries as well as a panel data methodology for the 2011-2018 period, this study discovers that the risk of export destination countries affects the decline in non-oil and gas exports of Indonesia to the alleged high-risk countries that are non-traditional export markets of Indonesia by 8.34%. In contrast, the LCs only significantly affect the increase in non-oil and gas exports of Indonesia to the lowand medium-risk countries by 0.024-0.029%, most of which are traditional export markets of Indonesia. It implies that banking sector in general does not have the appetite for providing financing for Indonesian exporters attempting to penetrate non-traditional export markets. This result underlines that commercial banks in Indonesia have a significant role in shaping the pattern of destination countries for Indonesian export. Consequently, government intervention is essentially needed by assuming or sharing part of the risk with state banks supposing the government continues to expect exporters to be able to penetrate into the non-traditional countries.
Defisit Neraca Perdagangan: J-Curve, Perang Dagang dan Model Salter Corden Firdaus, Muhammad; Satriani, Rini; Amaliah, Syarifah; Salam, Fahmi Ahmad; Fazri, Muhammad
Jurnal Ikatan Sarjana Ekonomi Indonesia Vol 8 No 2 (2019): December
Publisher : Jurnal Ekonomi Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.52813/jei.v8i2.34

Abstract

Exchange rate fluctuations and external shocks such as the trade war are predicted to put pressure on Indonesia’s trade balance. Based on VECM analysis, the exchange rate and Indonesia’s aggregate trade balance followed the J-Curve. Additionally, the trade war had impact on Rupiah depreciation and trade balance. The study also confirms eight export-oriented industries that are resilient to shocks and classified into four behaviors: (i) industries following the J-Curve; (ii) industries following the J-Curve in the long run; (iii) industriy which are not fully confirmed J-Curve, and (iv) Rest sector. The implication of this study emphasize the development of export-oriented and labor-intensive industries (Salter-Corden model). Keywords: J Curve; exchange rate; trade war; Salter Coden Model; VECM ------------------------------------------- Pergerakan nilai tukar Rupiah dan guncangan eksternal seperti perang dagang diprediksi akan memberikan tekanan terhadap neraca perdagangan. Berdasarkan analisis VECM, nilai tukar rupiah dan neraca perdagangan Indonesia secara agregat mengikuti fenomena J-Curve. Perang dagang terbukti memengaruhi depresiasi nilai tukar Rupiah dan neraca perdagangan Indonesia. Terdapat delapan industri berorientasi ekspor yang memiliki resiliensi terhadap guncangan dan diklasifikasikan menjadi empat, yakni: (i) Kelompok industri yang mengikuti fenomena J-Curve sepenuhnya; (ii) Kelompok industri dengan fenomena J-Curve pada jangka panjang; (iii) Kelompok industri yang tidak sepenuhnya mengikuti fenomena J-Curve, dan (iv) Industri lainnya. Implikasi studi ini menekankan pengembangan industri yang berorientasi ekspor dan intensif tenaga kerja (Salter-Corden model).
Co-Authors Ahmad, Fahmi Salam Fazri, Muhammad Muhammad Firdaus Syarifah Amaliah