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All Journal Signifikan : Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Economic and Finance in Indonesia
Sabrina, Syahda
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Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education

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Do Tourism-Related Sectors Drive Most of the Economy in Toba Regency? A RAS-based Regional Input-Output Analysis Susanti, Hera; Revindo, Mohamad Dian; Iskandar, Sulistiadi Dono; Nusantoro, Nalendro; Sabrina, Syahda
Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Vol. 14 No. 2 (2025)
Publisher : Faculty of Economic and Business, Universitas Islam Negeri Syarif Hidayatullah

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v14i2.46460

Abstract

Research Originality: This study constructs the first regional Input–Output (RIO) table for Toba Regency in 2023, utilizing the iterative RAS technique to adapt provincial coefficients to local macroeconomic data. Research Objectives: To estimate sectoral interlinkages, multiplier effects, and labor intensity for Toba Regency, and to identify strategic sectors that can drive regional economic growth and inform evidence-based policymaking. Research Methods: The 2016 North Sumatra I–O table was regionalized into a 22-sector Toba Regency table through RAS, with row and column sums adjusted to match Toba Regency GRDP by industry and expenditure. The resulting table was analyzed to calculate backward and forward linkages, output multipliers, and labor intensity. Empirical Results: The local economy is primarily driven by paper manufacturing, agriculture, and construction, while the tourism sector contributes only 6.2 percent of output and exhibits weak forward linkages. This finding suggests limited integration of tourism-related activities into the local supply chain. Electricity, business services, and agriculture emerge as growth drivers, while wage disparities persist in low-productivity service sectors. Implications: The approach can guide other subnational governments in producing localized Input–Output (I–O) tables, thereby enhancing evidence-based policymaking. JEL Classification: D57, R15, R58 How to Cite:Susanti, H., Revindo, M.D., Iskandar, S.D., Nusantoro, N., & Sabrina, S. (2025). Do Tourism-Related Sectors Drive Most of the Economy in Toba Regency? A RAS-based Regional Input-Output Analysis. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 14(2), 521-536. https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v14i2.46490.
The Impact of the U.S.-China Tariff War on Trade and Investment in Developing Countries in Disrupted Global Value Chains Riefky, Teuku; Sabrina, Syahda; Revindo, Mohamad Dian
Economics and Finance in Indonesia Vol. 71, No. 1
Publisher : UI Scholars Hub

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Abstract

As the world is more open and more integrated than ever, the trade war between the two largest economies, the United States (U.S.) and China, has significant and unexpected implications for multinational companies within global value chains. Since both markets are closed to each other due to the imposition of higher import tariffs, businesses have to shift their trade activities to alternative countries. Employing historical data, existing country-level data from the Global Trade Analysis Project on Value-Added (GTAP-VA), and tariffs imposed during the U.S.-China trade war, this study comprehensively examines the impacts of the trade war on global value chains, with a particular emphasis on developing countries. This study discovers that the increase in US import tariffs has a positive and statistically significant effect on the total exports of developing countries. Higher gross exports will generate higher domestic value-added (DVA) exports from developing countries, particularly those in ASEAN, as several countries compensate for reduced exports from China to the U.S. Furthermore, certain sectors or commodities are projected to benefit from the trade war, while others may experience adverse effects. The primary contributors to the increase in DVA exports are agricultural, textile, and leather products. On the other hand, high-technology manufacturing exports are likely to suffer due to the low comparative advantage of developing countries in these types of products.
Co-Authors Hera Susanti, Hera Iskandar, Sulistiadi Dono Nusantoro, Nalendro Revindo, Mohamad Dian Riefky, Teuku