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Ardl Panel's Capability In Maintaining Economic Stability During Covid-19 Asean Founder Countries Ade Novalina
International Journal of Science, Technology & Management Vol. 2 No. 5 (2021): September 2021
Publisher : Publisher Cv. Inara

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46729/ijstm.v2i5.333

Abstract

The slowdown in the world economy due to the COVID-19 pandemic has become one of the triggers for increased analysis in the economic sector to find the proper steps to protect the economy from the shadow of the crisis. However, most research is still focused on several separate policies, which makes the analysis results still seem bleak. This research was conducted using the ARDL panel approach to analyze the ability of endurance policy to maintain a balance between aggregate demand and supply in ASEFO countries. The data used is secondary data (time series) from 2009 – 2019. The analysis results show that the leading indicators of controlling GDP in ASEFO countries on a panel basis are INF, NPL, GOV, LDR. Meanwhile, the leading indicators of the effectiveness of the variables are INF and GOV. Thus, government spending during the pandemic must still be controlled not to cause inflation which is a threat to the economy.
Changes In The Financial System Stability Of Asean Founder Countries Due To Covid-19 Rusiadi; Anwar Sanusi; Ade Novalina; Milenia M Tafonao; Audre Aprillia
International Journal of Science, Technology & Management Vol. 2 No. 5 (2021): September 2021
Publisher : Publisher Cv. Inara

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46729/ijstm.v2i5.334

Abstract

The threat of the spread of coronavirus to economic growth and inflation in countries in the world will also seep into the global and domestic macrofinancial sector. This research was conducted to analyze how the level of change in the stability of the financial system of ASEAN Founders (ASEFO) with the emergence of the covid 19 pandemic. This study used secondary data (time series) in asefo countries. The model used is a different test model paired sample t-test. The results of the analysis showed that the Covid 19 pandemic had a significant effect on the stability of the financial system with the ASEFO State NPL indicator.
Kemampuan Keynesian Balance Of Payment Theory Dan Monetary Approach Balance Of Payment Mendeteksi Keseimbangan Neraca Perdagangan Indonesia Rusiadi Rusiadi; Ade Novalina
Ekonomikawan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi dan Studi Pembangunan Vol 17, No 1 (2017)
Publisher : UNIVERSITAS MUHAMMADIYAH SUMATERA UTARA

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (165.982 KB) | DOI: 10.30596/ekonomikawan.v17i1.1171

Abstract

Penelitian ini menganalisis pengaruh secara simultankurs, inflasi, tingkat suku bunga, PDB dan kredit domestik berpengaruh secara simultan terhadap cadangan devisa.Menganalisis pengaruh secara simultan kurs, ekspor, cadangan devisa dan tingkat suku bunga berpengaruh secara simultan terhadap inflasi.Menganalisis efektivitas teori keynesian dan monetaris terhadap cadangan devisa di Indonesia. Data penelitian selama 15 tahun yaitu dari tahun 2001 sampai dengan tahun 2015. Analisis data menggunakan analisis simultan. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa secara simultan cadangan devisa sangat dipengaruhi oleh kurs dan kredit domestik. Sedangkan analisis simultan untuk inflasi menghasilkan pengaruh yang signifikan variabel ekspor dan cadangan devisa.
Prediksi Jangka Panjang Transmisi Kebijakan Moneter Melalui Jalur Kurs Negara Emerging Market Ade Novalina; Rusiadi Rusiadi
Ekonomikawan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi dan Studi Pembangunan Vol 17, No 1 (2017)
Publisher : UNIVERSITAS MUHAMMADIYAH SUMATERA UTARA

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (150.269 KB) | DOI: 10.30596/ekonomikawan.v17i1.1173

Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis pola efektifitas transmisi kebijakan moneter  negara emerging market dengan menganalisis model Mundell-Fleming. Menganalisis seberapa besar pengaruh pdb, kurs, investasi terhadap kestabilan inflasi negara emergingmarket. Data dianalisis berdasarkan time series tahun 2000-2016. Negara emerging market yang dipilih adalah India, Brazil, China, rusia, Indonesia. Analisis data menggunakan analisis jangka panjang Vector Autoregression, Impulse Response function dan variance decomposition. Hasil persamaan untuk ekspor  negera emerging market diketahui ekspor tahun sebelumnya sangat mempengaruhi ekspor tahun sekarang, kemudian inflasi juga mempengaruhi signifikan. Perkembangan ekonomi yang diwakili oleh inflasi dipengaruhi oleh inflasi tahun sebelumnya dan ekspor. Investasi sangat dipengaruhi oleh inflasi dan ekspor. Untuk produk domestik bruto dipengaruhi oleh inflasi dan ekspor dan untuk kurs dipengaruhi oleh inflasi dan ekspor. Hasil tersebut menunjukkan  kebijakan moneter negara-negara emerging market sangat dipengaruhi oleh inflasi dan ekspor. 
Pengendalian Inflasi di Indonesia Berbasis Kebijakan Fiskal dengan Model seemingly Unrelated Regression Lia Nazliana Nasution; Ade Novalina
Ekonomikawan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi dan Studi Pembangunan Vol 20, No 1 (2020)
Publisher : UNIVERSITAS MUHAMMADIYAH SUMATERA UTARA

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (342.331 KB) | DOI: 10.30596/ekonomikawan.v20i1.4306

Abstract

This study aims to see how effectively fiscal policy can control inflation in Indonesia. The fiscal policy variables used are tax revenue, government expenditure, and foreign direct investment (FDI). The data used are secondary data types ranging from 1982 to 2018. Based on the results of research using the Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) method, shows that fiscal policy variables measured through tax revenues, FDI, and government spending, have a significant effect on the development of Indonesia's inflation. Tax revenue has a substantial impact on government spending. Likewise, FDI has a significant impact on the money supply in Indonesia during the observation.
MODEL CONFIRMATORY FACTOR ANALYSIS TERHADAP FLUKTUASI SAHAM PROPERTY AND REAL ESTATE INDONESIA Ade Novalina
Jurnal Abdi Ilmu Vol 11 No 1 (2018): JURNAL ILMIAH ABDI ILMU
Publisher : UNIVERSITAS PEMBANGUNAN PANCA BUDI

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (551.187 KB)

Abstract

Penelitian ini mengkaji masalah faktor-faktor apa saja yang mempengaruhi debt to equity ratio, earning per share, return on equity, sales growth, price earning ratio, firm size dan return on asset terhadap harga saham pada perusahaan property dan real estate Indonesia. Apakah debt to equity ratio, earning per share, return on equity, sales growth, price earning ratio, firm size dan return on asset secara panel berpengaruh signifikan terhadap harga saham pada perusahaan property dan real estate Indonesia. Penelitian ini juga mengkaji faktor-faktor apa saja yang mempengaruhi debt to equity ratio, earning per share, return on equity, sales growth, price earning ratio, firm size dan return on asset terhadap harga saham pada perusahaan property dan real estate Indonesia. Untuk mengetahui apakah debt to equity ratio, earning per share, return on equity, sales growth, price earning ratio, firm size dan return on asset secara panel berpengaruh signifikan terhadap harga saham pada perusahaan property dan real estate yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI). Model analisis yang digunakan dengan analisis CFA. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa faktor-faktor apa saja yang mempengaruhi harga saham pada perusahaan property dan real estate yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) yaitu earning per share, sales growth dan firm size. Sales growth dan firm size secara panel tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap harga saham, sedangkan earning per share secara panel berpengaruh signifikan terhadap harga saham pada perusahaan property dan real estate yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI).
EFEK SIMULTANITAS KEBIJAKAN MONETER TERHADAP STABILITAS EKONOMI DI NEGARA CHINA, INDIA, VIETNAM DAN INDONESIA Ade Novalina
Jurnal Abdi Ilmu Vol 12 No 1 (2019): JURNAL ILMIAH ABDI ILMU
Publisher : UNIVERSITAS PEMBANGUNAN PANCA BUDI

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (472.44 KB)

Abstract

Tujuan penelitian ini menganalisis transmisi moneter dan ekspektasi inflasi berpengaruh secara simultan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi dan inflasi Negara-negara CIVI. Penelitian ini mengkaji masalah peningkatan inflasi di Indonesia pada tahun 2005 yang diakibatkan oleh kebijakan Presiden melakukan 2 kali peningkatan harga premium. Terjadi peningkatan inflasi di Vietnam pada tahun 2008 yang diakibatkan oleh kenaikan harga pangan dunia. Terjadi peningkatan suku bunga di Indonesia tahun 2005 yang diakibatkan oleh peningkatan inflasi yang dikarenakan Presiden melakukan 2 kali peningkatan harga premium. Analisis data menggunaka simultan regression. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian diketahui bahwa Variabel Kurs, Jumlah Uang Beredar dan Ekspektasi Inflasi berpengaruh signifikan terhadap PDB. Dan Variabel Inflasi tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap PDB. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian diketahui bahwa Variabel PDB berpengaruh signifikan terhadap Inflasi. Dan variabel kurs, jumlah uang Beredar dan Ekspektasi Inflasi tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap Inflasi.
TRANSMISI KEBIJAKAN MONETER MELALUI JALUR KURS NEGARA EMERGING MARKET Ade Novalina
Jurnal Abdi Ilmu Vol 10 No 1 (2017): JURNAL ILMIAH ABDI ILMU
Publisher : UNIVERSITAS PEMBANGUNAN PANCA BUDI

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (234.956 KB)

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the contribution of the variables of interaction variable monetary policy transmission (EX, GDP, INV, EXCHANGE, INF). This study uses secondary data or time series of the first quarter of 2000 to the first quarter of 20114. The model of data analysis in this study is a model Autoregression Vector (VAR) and sharpened by analyzing Impulse Response Function (IRF) and the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD ). The results of the analysis of VAR indicate that the variable past (t-1) contribute to the variable now well on the variable itself and other variables and of the estimation results turned out to have a mutual relationship between the variables in which all the variables of variable monetary policy transmission (EX, GDP, INV , EXCHANGE, INF) contribute to each other. The results of the analysis of IRF is known that the stability of the response of all variables are formed in the period of five or medium-term and long-term, where the response of other variables to change one variable show different variations both positive response to negative or vice versa, and there are variables that responya remain positive or remain negative on the short term to long term. Analysis FEVD shows the variables that contributed most to the variable itself both in the short, medium and long term as EX, INF, GDP, INV, EXCHANGE, while the other variables that have the greatest influence on the variable itself in the short term, medium and long term is the largest EXCHANGE influenced by INF, INV biggest influenced by EXCHANGE, the largest EX influenced by GDP. The results of the analysis of the interaction of monetary and fiscal policy to macroeconomic stability indicates that the transmission of monetary policy is effective in keeping inflation and macroeconomic stability in Indonesia.
KEMAMPUAN BI 7- DAY REPO RATE (BI7DRR) DALAM MENJAGA STABILITAS EKONOMI INDONESIA (PENDEKATAN TRANSMISI MONETER JANGKA PANJANG) Ade Novalina
Jurnal Abdi Ilmu Vol 10 No 2 (2017): JURNAL ILMIAH ABDI ILMU
Publisher : UNIVERSITAS PEMBANGUNAN PANCA BUDI

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (806.529 KB)

Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis efektifitas mekanisme transmisi kebijakan moneter melaluijalur suku bunga terhadap inflasi di Indonesia. Variabel dalam penelitian ini adalah suku bunga BI 7-Day Repo Rate (BI7DRR), investasi, ekspor, produk domestik bruto, dan inflasi. Metode analisis yangdigunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah menggunaka model Vector Auto Regression (VAR) dengan ujiImpulse Response Function (IRF), Forecast Error Varince Decomposition (FEVD), uji stasioneritas, ujikointegrasi, uji stabilitas lag struktur, dan uji panjang lag optimal.Hasil penelitian dengan uji ImpulseResponse Function (IRF), Forecast Error Varince Decomposition (FEVD), uji stasioneritas, ujikointegrasi, uji stabilitas lag struktur, dan uji panjang lag optimal, menyatakan bahwa semua variabel(suku bunga BI 7-Day Repo Rate (BI7DRR), investasi, ekspor, produk domestik bruto, dan inflasi)saling berkontribusi.
Keynesian vs Monetaris Approach: Which Model Effectively Controls Indonesia's Economy? Ade Novalina
International Conference of ASEAN Prespective and Policy (ICAP) Vol 1 No 1 (2018): INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE OF ASEAN PERSPECTIVE AND POLICY (ICAP)
Publisher : International Conference of ASEAN Prespective and Policy (ICAP)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (371.621 KB)

Abstract

This study analyzes the phenomenon of the problem of different approaches in controlling the Indonesian economy. This study was able to predict using two different theories. Data analysis for long-term prediction uses Structural Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression (SFAVAR). The result of the research shows that the model of controlling the rate of economic stability is done through inflation and export in short, medium and long-term. Policies are to control the poor in the short term through exports and inflation; in the medium term, foreign exchange reserves and exports; GDP and exports control long-term. Apparently, exports are very dominant in affecting economic stability.