Article Per Year (5 Year)
p-Index From 2021 - 2026
1.879
P-Index
This Author published in this journals
All Journal Signifikan : Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Jurnal Ekonomi & Studi Pembangunan Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Jurnal Ekonomi dan Manajemen Arus Jurnal Sosial dan Humaniora Priviet Social Sciences Journal Jurnal REP (Riset Ekonomi Pembangunan) Lingkar Ekonomika: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi dan Studi Pembangunan
Gunawan, Ratna Setyawati
Unknown Affiliation
Religion Arts Humanities Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Environmental Science Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Social Sciences

Published : 11 Documents Claim Missing Document
Claim Missing Document
Check
Articles

Found 11 Documents
Search

 1   2 
The symmetric effects of inflation, exchange rates, and international trade on Indonesia's balance of payments 2015-2024 based on ARDL Setianingrum, Dyah Ayu; Angellita, Rachel Dwitya; Pamungkas, Priyagung Jati; Firdaus, Anzar Alfat; Gunawan, Ratna Setyawati
Priviet Social Sciences Journal Vol. 6 No. 3 (2026): March 2026
Publisher : Privietlab

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55942/pssj.v6i3.1111

Abstract

This research utilizes the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to examine the symmetrical effects of inflation, exchange rates, and international trade on Indonesia's balance of payments over the period from 2015 to 2024. Amidst global economic instability, exacerbated by the US-China trade war, the persistent pandemic COVID-19, and ongoing geopolitical tensions, the Republic of Indonesia faces significant challenges in maintaining its external balance. This study employs quarterly time series secondary data sourced from Bank Indonesia, Statistics Indonesia (BPS), and the Ministry of Trade. The long-run estimation results indicate a negative correlation between inflation and the balance of payments, with a coefficient of -3468.811 (p=0.059). This means that if inflation goes up a lot, it could make the country's external position worse. The export coefficient, at 2.4342 (p=0.000), indicates a substantial positive impact, whereas the import coefficient, at -2.5669 (p=0.000), signifies a considerable negative effect. The exchange rate's long-term influence appears relatively weak, as evidenced by a coefficient of -0.635 (p=0.082). Short-run estimations reveal that the error correction term (ECT) coefficient is -0.9766 (p=0.000), suggesting a rapid convergence towards long-run equilibrium. These findings carry significant implications for Indonesian economic policy, particularly concerning inflation control and export promotion, both of which are essential for maintaining external stability. Consequently, to enhance the long-term balance of payments, the implementation of prudent monetary and trade policies that foster export expansion while managing import levels is crucial.
Co-Authors Abdul Aziz Ahmad Angellita, Rachel Dwitya Denizar, Tri Irvan Diah Setyorini Gunawan Fauzi, Pahrul Firdaus, Anzar Alfat Inayaturrohmah, Winni Putri istiqomah istiqomah Pamungkas, Priyagung Jati Ramanda, Gian Rian Dwi Utami Sambodo, Herman Setianingrum, Dyah Ayu Wijaya, Hutama