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Shear Wave Travel Time Prediction using Well Log Filtering and Machine Learning Siregar, Indra Rivaldi; Nugraha, Adhiyatma; Fitrianto, Anwar; Erfiani, Erfiani; Jumansyah, L.M. Risman Dwi
Euler : Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika, Sains dan Teknologi Volume 12 Issue 2 December 2024
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37905/euler.v12i2.29021

Abstract

Shear wave travel time (also known as Delta-T Shear and commonly abbreviated as DTS) is an important parameter in petroleum for exploration, production, and characterization of borehole stability. Direct measurement of DTS is often limited by high costs and a constraint of geography, making machine learning (ML) predictive approaches necessary. This study aims to explore the effectiveness of ML models in predicting DTS, emphasizing the importance of data preprocessing techniques to improve prediction accuracy. Preprocessing techniques include Yeo-Johnson transformation to handle non-normality, outlier elimination using z-score, and data smoothing using the Savitzky-Golay filter and median filter. Incorporating smoothing techniques can fill important gaps in some existing studies and may improve the performance of machine learning models in predicting DTS, particularly in situations with limited or noisy data. Four ML models were tested in this study, namely Linear Regression (LR), K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Random Forest (RF), with performance evaluation based on metrics RMSE (Root Mean Squared Error), MAE (Mean Absolute Error), and R2 (coefficient of determination). The results showed that the RF model produced the best performance with RMSE of 9.41, MAE of 6.35, and R2 of 0.90 in scenarios with Yeo-Johnson transformation, outlier elimination, and smoothing techniques using a median filter with a window size of 5.
Evaluation of Machine Learning Models in Classifying Women's Labor Force Participation in West Java Siregar, Indra Rivaldi; Pratiwi, Windy Ayu; Nugraha, Adhiyatma; Sartono, Bagus; Firdawanti, Aulia Rizki
Techno.Com Vol. 24 No. 1 (2025): Februari 2025
Publisher : LPPM Universitas Dian Nuswantoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.62411/tc.v24i1.11945

Abstract

This study compares four classification models—Logistic Regression, Random Forest (RF), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost)—to predict women's labor force participation in West Java, using a dataset of 62 features. After feature selection, the dataset was reduced to 31 features, followed by modeling with the top 10 most important features from each model. Model performance, evaluated using Balanced Accuracy, F1-Score, and Cohen’s Kappa, showed similar results, with RF and XGBoost slightly outperforming the others. However, the differences were not significant, indicating comparable predictive ability across models. The top 10 features from each model were averaged, and the five most influential features were selected. Key factors influencing women's employment status include household responsibilities, age, education, district minimum wage, and the age of the youngest child. The analysis found that 79.6% of unemployed women manage household duties, while employed women are less involved (18.9%). Age was significant, with employed women mostly in the 35-55 age range, correlating with older children and greater workforce participation. Additionally, employed women are more likely to come from regions with lower minimum wages, suggesting that economic necessity drives their labor market participation. Keywords: female labor force, machine learning, classification, West Java
THE COMPARISON OF LONG SHORT-TERM MEMORY AND BIDIRECTIONAL LONG SHORT-TERM MEMORY FOR FORECASTING COAL PRICE Siregar, Indra Rivaldi; Nugraha, Adhiyatma; Notodiputro, Khairil Anwar; Angraini, Yenni; Mualifah, Laily Nissa Atul
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 19 No 1 (2025): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol19iss1pp245-258

Abstract

Coal remains vital for global energy despite recent demand fluctuations due to the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projected a decline in global coal demand starting in early 2024, driven by increasing renewable energy adoption. As one of the top coal exporters, Indonesia must adjust to these changes. This study aims to forecast future coal prices using historical data from Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (KESDM), applying and comparing Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM) models. While BiLSTM has shown advantages in other contexts and studies, its effectiveness for coal price forecasting remains underexplored. To ensure robust predictions, we employ walk-forward validation, which divides the data into six segments and evaluates 90 hyperparameter combinations across all segments. The BiLSTM model consistently outperforms the LSTM model, achieving lower average RMSE and MAPE values. Specifically, BiLSTM records an average MAPE of 7.847 and RMSE of 10.485, compared to LSTM's 10.442 and 11.993, respectively. The Diebold-Mariano (DM) test using squared error and absolute error loss functions further corroborates these findings, with most segments showing significant improvements in favor of BiLSTM, indicated by negative DM-test statistics and p-values below 0.01 or 0.10. This superior performance continues into the testing data, where BiLSTM maintains lower error metrics and a significant result of the DM test, underscoring its reliability for forecasting. In the final stage, the forecasts from both models indicate a nearly linear downward trend in coal prices over the next 18 months, aligning with the International Energy Agency's 2023 projection of a structural decline in coal demand driven by the sustained growth of clean energy technologies.