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All Journal Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Aceh International Journal of Social Science
Zulkefly Abdul Karim
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Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences

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Journal : Economic Journal of Emerging Markets

 1 
Interest Rate Uncertainty, Spread and Economic Activity: Empirical Evidence in Malaysia Abd. Ghafar Ismail; Zulkefly Abdul Karim; Mohd.Azlan Shah Zaidi; Hairunnizam Wahid
Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Volume 11 Issue 3, 2006
Publisher : Universitas Islam Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/ejem.v11i3.521

Abstract

The determination of the term structure of interest rate is of great interest to both policy makers and researchers in finance and economics. Not surprisingly, a large body of literature (among others, Fisher (1907), Cox, Ingersoll and Ross (1985), and Longstaff (2000). The uncertainty of interest rates is another variable that has been widely investi-gated, since it measures uncertainty of a macroeconomic nature. It is important both for its effect on the macroeconomic variables (interest rates, investments, etc.) and its effect on in-dividual or firm investment decisions (see, for example, Siegfred (2000)). Therefore, this study will focus on the interest rate spread resulting from default risk and attempts to explain how and why the risk spread leads business cycles. This study also contribute to the existing literature by looking at the interest rate uncertainty that plays a critical role in explaining the interest rate spread and economic activity. Furthermore, the finding shows that interest rate uncertainty embodies useful information in term of predicting the growth rate of indus-trial production.Key words: interest rate uncertainly, interest rate spread, economic activity
The Relationship Between Federal Government Revenue and Spending: Empirical Evidence from Asean-5 Countries Zulkefly Abdul Karim; Norain Mod Asri; Azrina Al-Hadi Abdullah; Antoni Antoni; Zetty Zahureen Mohd.Yusoff
Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Volume 11 Issue 2, 2006
Publisher : Universitas Islam Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/ejem.v11i2.528

Abstract

The main objectives of this paper is to examine the long run relationship between total expenditure, revenue (tax and nontax) and economic growth in ASEAN-5 countries namely by Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore and Philippines. According to the prior studies, there are several hypotheses to explain the relationship between revenue and spend-ing such as (1) spend-revenue hypotheses, (2) revenue-spend hypotheses and (3)bi-directional causality hypotheses. To test the validity of these hypotheses, this study will util-ize a cointegration and variance decomposition analysis. Based on empirical evidence, we can concluded that the existence of long run relationship between government spending, revenue (tax and non tax) and economic growth for all ASEAN-5 countries. The result of variance decomposition also shows that the strong influence on expenditure to revenue in countries namely Malaysia, Indonesia and Philippines, which support the ‘spend-revenue hypotheses. Meanwhile, for Thailand and Singapore the budget decision driven by revenue side which support the ‘revenue-spend hypotheses’. In addition, public expenditure plays no role to stimulate economic growth in Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore and Philippines, except for Indonesia. Key words: Fiscal economics; Wagner law; cointegration test; variance decomposition
Financial Sector Development, Government Size, Trade Openness and Economic Growth: An Emperical Analysis in ASEAN-4 Countries Mohd Azlan Shah Zaidi; Zulkefly Abdul Karim; Zurina Kefeli
Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Vol. 10 No. 2 (2005)
Publisher : Universitas Islam Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/ejem.v10i2.589

Abstract

The main objective of this paper is to evaluate the relative impact of financial sector development, government size and trade openness of a country on its economic growth. This is done to investigate which factors play more prominent role in leading the growth of the economy. Four ASEAN countries known for their similar economic orientation, namely Ma-laysia, Thailand, Indonesia and Singapore have been selected for this purpose. To achieve the objective, a series of econometric tests is applied. These include unit root test and cointe-gration test. A vector error correction model (VECM) is then applied to capture both the short-run dynamic and the long-run equilibrium relationship between variables. Impulse response function is utilized to look at the impact of each variable on economic growth while variance decomposition is used to measure the magnitude of the impact. The results show that trade openness plays the leading role in promoting economic growth in Malaysia, Sin-gapore and Indonesia. For Malaysia financial sector development follows second and the government size comes third while for Singapore the order is reverse. For Indonesia, the government size overtakes the leading role at the later stage while the financial sector devel-opment is immaterial. For Thailand, no firm conclusion can be made, as the results are not promising. The results signify that the right policies have been taken by the selected coun-tries to promote higher economic growth. Keywords: Economic growth, financial sector development, government size, trade openness.
The impact of population aging and fertility rate on economic growth in Malaysia Abdul Karim, Zulkefly; Nuruddin, Nurul Aqilah Mohd; Abdul Karim, Bakri; Mohamad, Massita; Ishak, Ismahalil
Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Volume 15 Issue 2, 2023
Publisher : Universitas Islam Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol15.iss2.art7

Abstract

Purpose ― This study aims to examine the impact of population aging and fertility rates on economic growth in Malaysia for the sample spanning from 1961 to 2020.Method ― The study uses an Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) model to examine the relationship between economic growth, the aging population, fertility rate, capital stock, and employment rate.Findings ― The main results provide evidence of a long-run relationship between aging, fertility rate, employment, and capital stock on Malaysian economic growth. The results also show that the aging population harms economic growth in the long run, but a decline in the fertility rate has been favorable to long-term economic growth.Implication ― These findings have significant implications for the execution and formulation of national aging and demographic policies and government efforts to achieve long-term fiscal sustainability.Originality ― This study empirically investigated the link between population aging and economic development, reflecting recent demographic trends in Malaysia. This study uses current data and an Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) technique to analyze long-term economic growth and its association with supply-side determinants
Co-Authors Abd. Ghafar Ismail Antoni Antoni Azrina Al-Hadi Abdullah Bakri Abdul Karim Hairunnizam Wahid Ishak, Ismahalil Lim Siew Lih Mohamad, Massita Mohd Azlan Shah Zaidi Mohd.Azlan Shah Zaidi Norain Mod Asri Nuruddin, Nurul Aqilah Mohd Zetty Zahureen Mohd.Yusoff Zurina Kefeli